Are the Eagles built to win now?
It's time for the annual offseason discussion about the Eagles' window, and whether it's open or closed. Is this team built to win right now?
Are the Eagles built to win now?
Sheil Kapadia, Philly.com
It's difficult to pinpoint exactly when the whole window conversation became an annual offseason topic.
You know the one I'm talking about. It revolves around the Eagles' window of opportunity to win a Super Bowl. After the 2001 season, when the Birds reached the NFC championship with a third-year coach and a 25-year-old quarterback, the window seemed like it would be wide open for years to come (and really, it was).
But pretty much every offseason thereafter, the question was asked: What do the Eagles need to do to win now?
Given the roster turnover we've seen in the past few seasons (Brian Dawkins, Donovan McNabb, Jon Runyan, Tra Thomas, Brian Westbrook, Sheldon Brown, Lito Sheppard and so on), it makes sense to visit that topic once again.
Before 2010, Eagles management refused to use the word rebuilding around the Novacare Complex. Yet, after the playoff loss to the Packers, Andy Reid's message was a little different.
"Very few teams can retool the way that we retooled and still compete, put yourself in a position to compete for a championship, and we were able to do that," he said.
And so the question must be asked. After a season of retooling, are the Eagles built to win right now? Will they be legitimate Super Bowl contenders in 2011? It's a complex question that I want to look at from three different angles: personnel, coaching staff and offseason uncertainty.
Let's examine the first (and the biggest) one today and the other two on Tuesday.
PERSONNEL
Do the Eagles have the players right now to compete for a championship, and how long will the core be together? I've identified a specific group to examine based on two factors:
1. I expect each to be starting for this team in 2011 (assuming there's football). This means their jobs are secure, they're under contract (or are expected to be) and they're healthy.
2. Each is capable of playing at a high level and has demonstrated that in the past year or two.
Here's a chart with those players listed, along with age and contract information. Note that age pertains to the projected start of the 2011 season.
| Age |
Contract |
|
| Michael Vick |
31 |
Unsigned |
| LeSean McCoy |
23 |
Signed through 2012 |
| DeSean Jackson |
24 |
Signed through 2011 |
| Jeremy Maclin |
23 |
Signed through 2013 |
| Jason Avant |
28 |
Signed through 2014 |
| Brent Celek |
26 |
Signed through 2016 |
| Jason Peters |
29 |
Signed through 2014 |
| Todd Herremans |
28 |
Signed through 2013 |
| Asante Samuel |
30 |
Signed through 2013 |
| Trent Cole |
28 |
Signed through 2013 |
Before I get to what the table shows, let's acknowledge some players who were left off. Because of the offseason uncertainty, we do not know how things are going to play out for guys like Quintin Mikell and Stewart Bradley, who are not under contract. I included Vick though because I have trouble envisioning a scenario where he is not the starting quarterback in 2011.
There were some tough decisions to make on defense. You could make the case for Antonio Dixon or Mike Patterson to be included, but given the way the Eagles rotated defensive linemen in 2010, I didn't include either guy. And injuries have to be accounted for also, which is why you don't see either Brandon Graham or Nate Allen listed. Both players showed promise, but they suffered season-ending injuries, and I wasn't comfortable saying either is a sure bet after one season.
One more thing to keep in mind when looking at the last column of when players are signed through. That doesn't mean the player will become an unrestricted free agent at the end of the contract. We don't know what their exact rights will be until the CBA is resolved.
Let's move on to the players who are listed. As you can see, seven of the 10 are signed through the 2013 season. And from the numbers I saw, those aren't really backloaded/deceiving contracts. The one exception could be Samuel, who's scheduled to make $10.4M in 2013 at the age of 32. Then again, he's coming off his best season as an Eagle.
Vick is a tough player to project. He'll be 31 later this year, and while he's unsigned, the Eagles are fully expected to use the franchise tag on him to keep him here in 2011. Remember, just because they tag Vick doesn't mean a long-term extension won't be worked out. So it's a distinct possibility that he's the starting quarterback through at least that 2013 window. We don't know how much (if any) his body benefited from not getting hit for two seasons while in prison. We also do not know how he will react to different defensive schemes being thrown at him now that teams have a year of film on him in the Eagles' system.
Jackson is only signed through next season, but extending him will likely be an offseason priority (once the Eagles are able to do so). McCoy is an interesting case because he'll be in a somewhat similar situation to Jackson next season. He's working under a rookie contract that will pay him $490,000 in 2011 and $575,000 in 2012. Like Jackson, McCoy is represented by Drew Rosenhaus. Keep in mind, though, that he'll only be 24 when his rookie deal runs out. Assuming he doesn't take some kind of giant leap backwards in the next two years, it's reasonable to assume he'll be with the Birds through another contract.
You'll notice that eight of the 10 players I listed are on offense. That group is built to win now. Guys like McCoy, Jackson, Maclin, Avant, Celek, Peters and Herremans should all theoretically be in their primes. And Vick is coming off his best season.
McCoy, Jackson, Maclin and Celek are nowhere close to 30. The only three offensive positions not accounted for in the above table are center, right guard and right tackle. Winston Justice was signed to an extension during the '09 season and is under contract through 2013. He had an inconsistent 2010 that resulted in the benching against Green Bay, and the Eagles will have to decide whether he can start at right tackle for the next few years.
Center is an unknown with Jamaal Jackson recovering from injury and Mike McGlynn having had an up-and-down 2010 season. However, Jackson is also signed through 2013. McGlynn is scheduled to be a free agent after next season.
At right guard, Max Jean-Gilles is not under contract. Neither is Nick Cole.
So overall, the offense is in very good shape to be a championship-level group through at least 2013. At that point, Vick will be 34.
The defense, of course, is another story. There's a lot of uncertainty on that side of the ball.
Up front, Trent Cole is a Pro Bowl-caliber defensive end, and Dixon also played at a Pro Bowl level last season, even though he was not used as an every-down player. The Eagles have three other guys who were first-round picks: Brodrick Bunkley, Mike Patterson and Graham. That's where Jim Washburn comes in. The Birds are counting on him to get the most out of this group. Of the players mentioned here, only Bunkley is likely to become an unrestricted free agent before 2013.
Linebacker is a complete crapshoot. Bradley, Akeem Jordan and Ernie Sims are scheduled to be free agents, although we don't know what exactly their rights will be until after the CBA is resolved. I can't imagine they'd bring Sims back though. Meanwhile, JaMar Chaney and Moise Fokou are playing on rookie contracts so the Eagles control their rights. Having said all that, I'm not sure that there are three starting linebackers among this group.
And finally, the secondary. I mentioned Samuel above. Mikell is a free agent, and Allen is on his rookie contract so he's not going anywhere. Right cornerback is a position that has to be addressed (hey, didn't we say the same thing last year?). And Joselio Hanson is signed through 2013.
So what's the bottom line here with personnel? Offensively, the Eagles are in position to compete at a Super Bowl level in the next two-to-three years. That window could probably be extended, based on a variety of factors (contracts, health, draft, free agency, etc.). But without taking any of those into account, the Eagles have several talented players that should be in their primes (and under contract) through 2013.
The defense is filled with question marks. Last year's group certainly was not Super Bowl-caliber. If Graham, Allen and Chaney make significant leaps in their second seasons, if the Eagles add a talented linebacker (or two) and a capable right cornerback, if Juan Castillo proves to be a better fit than Sean McDermott and if Washburn can get more from the defensive line, maybe it could be. But then again, those are a lot of ifs.
In the second part of this analysis, I'll take a look at the offseason coaching changes, the draft and free agency.
And if you missed my posts from the weekend, I rounded up some mock drafts and wrote about how Kevin Kolb would feel about a potential trade to the Cardinals.
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The Eagles will NEVER win a Super Bowl. They were built to win (and should have) before and they always come up empty. We are the only NFC East team without a ring. Face it, the birds aren't "lucky" enough to win it all. Remember our motto "wait til next year"!— greenguy- How can this team be so terrible and so far away from a superbowl team. They lost by 5 to the superbowl champions and had the ball with a chance to win at the end of the game. They beat the #1 seed in the NFC. They aren't losing any key to this season, unless Vick isn't locked in. This team is good enough to win the superbowl. The question is.......how about the new coaching staff.— willbert31
- Not until they shore up their weaknesses (Offensive Line, bigger Defensive Line, Linebackers and BD's with more experience). Taking time management and real-time adjustments out of Reid's hand.— danthony930
- Weak D and a QB who retrograded at the end of the season...I'm looking forward to the strike. At least the Birds will have a good reason for disappointing once again.— 2ndNlong
- As long as Vick is the QB and Reid is the coach - no way. You've already seen what happens when the league sees Vick a few times - he becomes the one-trick pony that the league figured out his last year in Atlanta when they were last in passing and 25th in total offense (and Vick played all 16 games). Keep drinking the Kool Aid, as we watch Vick's numbers continue to dive next season like the did the last part of this season. And no, we will never win a championship with Andy at the helm.— CiceroSpuriousDeodatus
- I have always marveled at how the Eagles were able to keep "the window" open this long while never getting all the pieces together. Especially with the receiver core. Now they seem like a playoff team who will not get past the first round year after year. No way I see Reid being the kind of head coach who can put together a D to go with this high octane, but non time comsuming offense he's got.— Artiescott
- I agree with you partially with your statement about the window continually being open, but i thinks it just appears to be open. They always seem to be above 500, in contention, and I start to think that Reids doing a good job. But then when the smoke clears and you assess the season, its the same thing all over. They had the team in 2004; they should have worked something out with TO, and signed a good free agent LB or two. Thats what the Phillies are doing. They know they are there, and they are adding. The Eagles in my opinion, didn't follow that logic, and the window slowly closed. They lost the last 3 games of the season the last 2 years. Something is wrong here. — watsonmr
- Sheil, thanks for continuing to ask the right questions. I've enjoyed your analysis and look forward to the rest of this series. As a Philly fan in Houston I can't get enough insight on all of our teams. Yes it's time for pitchers, catchers and the Cup looks within reach, but the Eagles are every bit as relevent during the off season as the other. I just spent 9 days in Hawaii and wished that the Eagles weren't there, but in a rebuilding year at least they were in the conversation. I met Javon Kearse and he said Washburn is his all time favorite coach, the Eagles were lucky to get him. Keep the info comming Tahnks— Flash Dad
- I can envision a fairly likely scenario where Vick is not the Eagles' starting Qb- he violates the terms of his probation by getting caught hanging out with a co-conspirator,getting high, drunk, or possessing a weapon or a pet.— jtj06
- Does your mom know you're up this late?
— Mabus 
Sure! were built to win now,We win every year....just not when it counts! We won't ever either unless we start drafting real talent on defense. Way to many high picks on D-line that don't pan out or don't play to the level at which they were drafted. How come we never draft any linebackers in the first three rounds?...Oh thats right were to busy drafting "fastballs"!. Why draft em' though when you can pick up a "shark in the water" like Ernie Sims, what a waste of a pick! GO EAGLES!!!- yeah right.............they will never get to the super bowl and win it. Sorry losers. Your team isen't like the teams who has won it plenty of times. Eagles are a bunch of losers!— MRD
- 1. There is no one on the o line as it now is that could start for Pittsburgh or Green Bay.J Jackson was a stud, but who knows if he comes back. Until they get quality on the O line, any dream that the Eagles will be competitive for a Super Bowl is just folly.
2. M. Vick is a small framed player, and it is imperative that he have an O line that can pick off blitzing lbs and dbs. There is a better than even change that he will get waffled and not get up. Without M Vick buying time, the eagles can not get the big plays they had last season.
3. D Jackson troubles me. It seems like dbs have found out that if they hit him, he seems to get out of rhythm, Also it seems like if he does not get the big home run play, he loses interest. I also worry about whining about salary and am afraid he might turn into a divisive force, like TO was.
4. I also worry about the big play offense that Andy seems to like. By the end of the season, it seemed that opposing teams realized that if they could stop the big plays, that they could win. Also, it seems to me that an offense capable of sustained drives by running and passing are more successful in the red zone.
5. Who replaces Leonard Weaver?
6. The Eagles seem to have forgotten Brent Celik.
7. The defense is more than one player away. It takes a complete team to get to the Super Bowl.
8. How about David Aker. Have Andy's comments damaged his psyche? Will another team that needds a kicker offer him more money tan the Eagles are willing to pay? And how about the punter?— angrybear - Ok now Vick is going to be on Oprah. Now are the writers suppose to ignore it, watch it but not report on it, or watch it and report on it. What would satisfy those that say people have to stop writing about Vick. Because no one is dragging him on the show. I believe he's appearing on his own. Are we to watch and not comment? Or would commenting offend those who say we should all move on. I'm torn on this one, because if Michael didn't appear on the show, there would be no comments.— watsonmr
As long as Andy-ball is taking place, there won't be much winning. At least not a Super Bowl.
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