Are the Eagles built to win now?
It's time for the annual offseason discussion about the Eagles' window, and whether it's open or closed. Is this team built to win right now?
Are the Eagles built to win now?
Sheil Kapadia, Philly.com
It's difficult to pinpoint exactly when the whole window conversation became an annual offseason topic.
You know the one I'm talking about. It revolves around the Eagles' window of opportunity to win a Super Bowl. After the 2001 season, when the Birds reached the NFC championship with a third-year coach and a 25-year-old quarterback, the window seemed like it would be wide open for years to come (and really, it was).
But pretty much every offseason thereafter, the question was asked: What do the Eagles need to do to win now?
Given the roster turnover we've seen in the past few seasons (Brian Dawkins, Donovan McNabb, Jon Runyan, Tra Thomas, Brian Westbrook, Sheldon Brown, Lito Sheppard and so on), it makes sense to visit that topic once again.
Before 2010, Eagles management refused to use the word rebuilding around the Novacare Complex. Yet, after the playoff loss to the Packers, Andy Reid's message was a little different.
"Very few teams can retool the way that we retooled and still compete, put yourself in a position to compete for a championship, and we were able to do that," he said.
And so the question must be asked. After a season of retooling, are the Eagles built to win right now? Will they be legitimate Super Bowl contenders in 2011? It's a complex question that I want to look at from three different angles: personnel, coaching staff and offseason uncertainty.
Let's examine the first (and the biggest) one today and the other two on Tuesday.
PERSONNEL
Do the Eagles have the players right now to compete for a championship, and how long will the core be together? I've identified a specific group to examine based on two factors:
1. I expect each to be starting for this team in 2011 (assuming there's football). This means their jobs are secure, they're under contract (or are expected to be) and they're healthy.
2. Each is capable of playing at a high level and has demonstrated that in the past year or two.
Here's a chart with those players listed, along with age and contract information. Note that age pertains to the projected start of the 2011 season.
| Age |
Contract |
|
| Michael Vick |
31 |
Unsigned |
| LeSean McCoy |
23 |
Signed through 2012 |
| DeSean Jackson |
24 |
Signed through 2011 |
| Jeremy Maclin |
23 |
Signed through 2013 |
| Jason Avant |
28 |
Signed through 2014 |
| Brent Celek |
26 |
Signed through 2016 |
| Jason Peters |
29 |
Signed through 2014 |
| Todd Herremans |
28 |
Signed through 2013 |
| Asante Samuel |
30 |
Signed through 2013 |
| Trent Cole |
28 |
Signed through 2013 |
Before I get to what the table shows, let's acknowledge some players who were left off. Because of the offseason uncertainty, we do not know how things are going to play out for guys like Quintin Mikell and Stewart Bradley, who are not under contract. I included Vick though because I have trouble envisioning a scenario where he is not the starting quarterback in 2011.
There were some tough decisions to make on defense. You could make the case for Antonio Dixon or Mike Patterson to be included, but given the way the Eagles rotated defensive linemen in 2010, I didn't include either guy. And injuries have to be accounted for also, which is why you don't see either Brandon Graham or Nate Allen listed. Both players showed promise, but they suffered season-ending injuries, and I wasn't comfortable saying either is a sure bet after one season.
One more thing to keep in mind when looking at the last column of when players are signed through. That doesn't mean the player will become an unrestricted free agent at the end of the contract. We don't know what their exact rights will be until the CBA is resolved.
Let's move on to the players who are listed. As you can see, seven of the 10 are signed through the 2013 season. And from the numbers I saw, those aren't really backloaded/deceiving contracts. The one exception could be Samuel, who's scheduled to make $10.4M in 2013 at the age of 32. Then again, he's coming off his best season as an Eagle.
Vick is a tough player to project. He'll be 31 later this year, and while he's unsigned, the Eagles are fully expected to use the franchise tag on him to keep him here in 2011. Remember, just because they tag Vick doesn't mean a long-term extension won't be worked out. So it's a distinct possibility that he's the starting quarterback through at least that 2013 window. We don't know how much (if any) his body benefited from not getting hit for two seasons while in prison. We also do not know how he will react to different defensive schemes being thrown at him now that teams have a year of film on him in the Eagles' system.
Jackson is only signed through next season, but extending him will likely be an offseason priority (once the Eagles are able to do so). McCoy is an interesting case because he'll be in a somewhat similar situation to Jackson next season. He's working under a rookie contract that will pay him $490,000 in 2011 and $575,000 in 2012. Like Jackson, McCoy is represented by Drew Rosenhaus. Keep in mind, though, that he'll only be 24 when his rookie deal runs out. Assuming he doesn't take some kind of giant leap backwards in the next two years, it's reasonable to assume he'll be with the Birds through another contract.
You'll notice that eight of the 10 players I listed are on offense. That group is built to win now. Guys like McCoy, Jackson, Maclin, Avant, Celek, Peters and Herremans should all theoretically be in their primes. And Vick is coming off his best season.
McCoy, Jackson, Maclin and Celek are nowhere close to 30. The only three offensive positions not accounted for in the above table are center, right guard and right tackle. Winston Justice was signed to an extension during the '09 season and is under contract through 2013. He had an inconsistent 2010 that resulted in the benching against Green Bay, and the Eagles will have to decide whether he can start at right tackle for the next few years.
Center is an unknown with Jamaal Jackson recovering from injury and Mike McGlynn having had an up-and-down 2010 season. However, Jackson is also signed through 2013. McGlynn is scheduled to be a free agent after next season.
At right guard, Max Jean-Gilles is not under contract. Neither is Nick Cole.
So overall, the offense is in very good shape to be a championship-level group through at least 2013. At that point, Vick will be 34.
The defense, of course, is another story. There's a lot of uncertainty on that side of the ball.
Up front, Trent Cole is a Pro Bowl-caliber defensive end, and Dixon also played at a Pro Bowl level last season, even though he was not used as an every-down player. The Eagles have three other guys who were first-round picks: Brodrick Bunkley, Mike Patterson and Graham. That's where Jim Washburn comes in. The Birds are counting on him to get the most out of this group. Of the players mentioned here, only Bunkley is likely to become an unrestricted free agent before 2013.
Linebacker is a complete crapshoot. Bradley, Akeem Jordan and Ernie Sims are scheduled to be free agents, although we don't know what exactly their rights will be until after the CBA is resolved. I can't imagine they'd bring Sims back though. Meanwhile, JaMar Chaney and Moise Fokou are playing on rookie contracts so the Eagles control their rights. Having said all that, I'm not sure that there are three starting linebackers among this group.
And finally, the secondary. I mentioned Samuel above. Mikell is a free agent, and Allen is on his rookie contract so he's not going anywhere. Right cornerback is a position that has to be addressed (hey, didn't we say the same thing last year?). And Joselio Hanson is signed through 2013.
So what's the bottom line here with personnel? Offensively, the Eagles are in position to compete at a Super Bowl level in the next two-to-three years. That window could probably be extended, based on a variety of factors (contracts, health, draft, free agency, etc.). But without taking any of those into account, the Eagles have several talented players that should be in their primes (and under contract) through 2013.
The defense is filled with question marks. Last year's group certainly was not Super Bowl-caliber. If Graham, Allen and Chaney make significant leaps in their second seasons, if the Eagles add a talented linebacker (or two) and a capable right cornerback, if Juan Castillo proves to be a better fit than Sean McDermott and if Washburn can get more from the defensive line, maybe it could be. But then again, those are a lot of ifs.
In the second part of this analysis, I'll take a look at the offseason coaching changes, the draft and free agency.
And if you missed my posts from the weekend, I rounded up some mock drafts and wrote about how Kevin Kolb would feel about a potential trade to the Cardinals.
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As usual Sheil another great article. Defense IS the big question. We could stop anyone last season and it got worse as the season went. Should we sign a "big name" on defense?— NC Eagle Fan
HAHAHA! no. Stop putting 200lb guys on the d-line for starters. That "speed over size" philosophy is a flunk. Vick looked good for a bit there, but he is not championship-caliber...just another "fun to watch" type.— Mr. Underhill- who cares man. Eagles...losers for fifty plus years and counting.— rubberguard
The answer is NO!!!! Still in need of REAL linebackers and another Defensive end and a TRUE safety! Talk to me after those items are purchased!— citysims- Run at a championship? Defensive Lineman that can actually get to the QB and Linebackers....need some.
- Trade Kolb for a quality defense player since defense is the glaring need. Hopefully the new D-coordinator will help. This team wins yearly regardless of personnel since Reid has been in town and I'm beginning to assume that's going to continue. Every year there's a new player or two in the thick of things and that will continue also.— dapmman
- When The Eagles pick 6 ft 248 lbs DE's and 5 ft 10" cornerbacks they are not improving themselves. All the teams that advanced had running balance with Green Bay still trying the run even when they lost all of there starters.— tulsaphil
- We need stud linebackers and great defensive players or developing ones. We have a great corner in Asante Samuel. We need to go after Asomugha who is a FA to opposite Samuel. We need monster defensive backs. Our defensive line has a beast in Trent Cole. We need to get a monster DT and other DE. Offensively the team is set, a stud WR would benefit but DeSean and Maclin are just fine. Celek is solid as well. Most of the changes need to be made on defense, ours do not intimdate anyone with the exception of Asante and Cole— DonovanMcNabb
- No, the Eagles are not "legitimate" contenders right now. The Eagles are, at least, 2 offensive linemen, a big time D-lineman, 2 linebackers and 2 DBs away from being an awesome team. Despite all the fans' complaints about Andy Reid, NO coach could have gotten any more out of the Eagles last season.— billtfla
- billtfla: The "coach/GM" is the reason for those short comings. Since he picks the players, he cannot be absolved of blame when they fall short.
- Even bigger question - why are the Eagles the number one story on the sports page over the first day of SPRING TRAINING for a team that is made up of PROVEN WINNERS?! Way to go, philly.com— Tom Cos
- I don't think the Eagles are built to win right now. As good as DJac and Maclin are the need a Big Physical receiver and a lot of help on D. And I don't want to beat a dead horse but giving McCoy only 12 Carries in the Playoffs ain't gonna cut it.— cuso20
- Built to win now? - NOT EVEN CLOSE. AR, no linebackers, refusal to run the ball,no pass rush, weak secondary,suspect O line, O line coach now the D.C.????!!! Win now? PLEASE! Win at some point with AR? Probably not.
- As always, AR will do what it takes to make the Eagles competitive during the season. However, for the following reasons, the Eagles will not win a championship:
1. Lack of LB talent.
2. Lack of secondary talent after Samuel.
3. Defensive line is to small to stop the run.
4. Right side of offensive line is very weak.
5. Poor clock management by AR.
6. Not enough emphasis on the run by AR and MM.
7. AR, MM and offensive line will get Vick hurt and out for the season by week 10 with their pass, pass, pass and punt offense.
8. DC has no defensive experience.
— PortCity - I like their chances of making the playoffs for the next few years. Super Bowl contenders? Yes, but..... odds are maybe 500:1 of winning Super Bowl, where the Pack, Steelers, Patriots, and a few others are maybe 10:1. We're a top 15 team; not a top five team. Sheil, leaving Dixon and Patterson out makes no sense. They are good players, underrated. It will be real interesting to see what Washburn does with the defensive line.— armchairGM
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