I got a chance to re-watch the Giants' loss to the Cardinals from last Sunday night. Here are some observations. I tried to relate them to the Eagles as best I could.
Giants on offense
** Brandon Jacobs looked great, carrying 13 times for 76 yards. I was a little surprised the Giants didn't go to him more, actually. On the season, he's averaging an underwhelming 3.9 yards per carry, but the Eagles' defense, and particularly the linebackers, face a major test.
** Ahmad Bradshaw, meanwhile, did not have a strong performance against the Cardinals. He averaged just 2.7 yards per carry, lost a costly fumble in the fourth quarter and was called for a 15-yard penalty.
** Don't be surprised to see the Giants throw some wide receiver screens in Asante Samuel's direction. They had some success on those plays against the Cardinals, and we've seen Samuel perform poorly as a tackler all season.
** The more I think about it, this game is going to come down to the Giants' success on big plays vs. the Eagles' ability to force turnovers. Eli Manning is not afraid to take chances and allow his receivers to make plays. It will be imperative for the Birds' defensive backs to make sure they look back for the ball and avoid pass interference penalties. There will be some interceptions for the taking, but if the Eagles fail to show good awareness, the Giants are capable of hitting on some big plays.
** Speaking of Manning, he looked completely out of rhythm against the Cardinals. Some of his throws in traffic were just careless. He was picked off three times, and that number could have been as high as five by my count.
** Analyst Cris Collinsworth did a good job of showing the chess match between Manning and the Cardinals' defenders. Arizona would bring linebackers and defensive backs up to the line, Manning would point them out as potential blitzers, and then they would drop back into coverage, leading to confusion for the Giants' offense. Think Sean McDermott will follow that blueprint?
** The Giants threw the fade to rookie Hakeem Nicks unsuccessfully down near the goal line. Nicks has TDs in four straight games. Three of those have been plays of 35 yards or more.
** The Eagles better be ready to wrap up the Giants' receivers or they will pile up yards after the catch.
** Tight end Kevin Boss had four catches for 41 yards. Don't be surprised if the Giants involve him more Sunday, given the Eagles' struggles against tight ends this season.
Giants on defense
** I thought the Giants' defense played well for the most part. They really got no favors from New York's special teams. The three Cardinals touchdown drives were set up by short fields and went 46, 55 and 20 yards, respectively.
** I say it every week, but LeSean McCoy has to hold on to the football. The Giants got two turnovers on fumbles by the Cardinals running backs. You can be sure that they'll be looking to strip the ball out of McCoy's hands every time he touches it.
** Last week, Donovan McNabb completed just seven passes to wide receivers against the Redskins. That won't get it done this week. The Giants' linebackers did a very good job of limiting the damage in the passing game by the Cardinals' running backs and tight ends.
** The Cardinals did have success on one inside screen to fullback Jason Wright for a touchdown. Reminded me of that shovel pass we've seen Andy Reid use inside the 5 for so many years. Do they break that out on Sunday?
** Cornerback Terrell Thomas took some chances against the Cardinals. That could mean big plays for the Giants, or big plays for the Eagles. Somehow I have a feeling that he's going to be involved in one or two plays that will make a difference.
** Mathias Kiwanuka has sacks in three of the Giants' last four games. Looked like they lined him up both at DE and inside against Arizona.
** The Cardinals ran the Wildcat on one play with DB Antrel Rolle taking the snap from the shotgun and throwing to a wide open Larry Fitzgerald. Fitzgerald couldn't make the catch, and Arizona was called for a penalty on the play, but the Giants were fooled. Do the Eagles try to pass from the Wildcat this week?
The pick
When the Giants have the ball, I think they're going to be able to move it on the ground effectively. Manning and company have the ability to hit on some big plays if their protection can hold up. Can the Eagles' defense continue to force turnovers, or will it get beat by the Giants' receivers? Offensively, the Eagles have looked out of rhythm, and they'll almost definitely be without Brian Westbrook. I need to see them move the ball consistently against a good defense before believing that they're capable of doing so. Give the Giants a slight edge, but like I said, it will come down to which team makes those one or two big plays.
Prediction: Giants 23, Eagles 17
We'll quickly run through the rest of this week's picks.
Last week: 6-6-1
Overall: 52-48-1
RAVENS (-3) vs. Broncos (MC's Pick of the Week; he's catching fire at 5-2 on the season)
BROWNS (+13) at Bears
BILLS (+3.5) vs. Texans
49ERS (+13.5) at Colts
JETS (-3.5) vs. Dolphins
LIONS (-4) vs. Rams
COWBOYS (-9.5) vs. Seahawks
RAIDERS (+16.5) at Chargers
JAGUARS (+3) at Titans
PACKERS (-3) vs. Vikings
CARDINALS (-10) vs. Panthers
FALCONS (+11) at Saints
Join me for a live Eagles-Giants chat Sunday at 1 p.m. We'll have updates and commentary live from the Linc.
Here's a look at who the national pundits are picking in this weekend's Eagles-Giants matchup.
I'll make my picks Saturday afternoon and will also have a closer look at the Giants once I finish watching the replay of their loss last week to the Cardinals.
SI.com's Peter King goes with the Eagles, 30-24:
There's a reason why Andy Reid took LeSean McCoy in the second round last April, and the reason will be apparent Sunday against the Giants. He can block, he can catch the ball out of the backfield, and while he doesn't have the cutting ability of Brian Westbrook, he does have the interior toughness and the ability to break a run or two outside.
SI.com's Don Banks has the Eagles eighth in his power rankings:
Who said midseason trades rarely amount to much in the NFL? Newly acquired Eagles linebacker Will Witherspoon played like a guy who had just been handed a new lease on life against the Redskins Monday night, and I guess in a football sense, he had. Going from winless St. Louis to contending Philadelphia ought to get the juices flowing, or there's something amiss to start.
Accuscore gives the Eagles the edge, 25.2 to 22.7.
Six FoxSports.com experts are split -- three picking the Eagles and three picking the Giants.
FoxSports.com's Peter Schrager has the Eagles winning, 30-22:
If New York and Philly fans didn't hate each other enough already, there's now a World Series and a little Eagles-Giants game this weekend to tack on top of the rivalry. Eli Manning has won four starts in a row at Philadelphia, and the Giants have won six of their past eight NFC East division games. But the defending division champs lost their last two and haven't looked particularly sharp in either. Give me the Yankees in that Philadelphia band box in Game 4 and the Eagles at the Linc on Sunday. And of course, several, several, several fist fights in the stands at both.
Five of eight ESPN experts like the Giants.
ESPN.com has the Eagles 12th in its power rankings.
CBSSports.com's Pete Prisco gives the Giants a 27-26 win:
The Giants have lost two in a row and seem to be reeling. So why do I like them here? They will pound it at the Eagles and hit some big plays against that Philly blitz. Tom Coughlin is good at getting his team back off the canvas, and the Eagles are on a short week.
Prisco has the Eagles eighth in his power rankings.
Matt Bowen of the National Football Post has the Birds, 22-17:
A big NFC East matchup in Philly. Over the last two weeks, the Giants’ secondary has been exposed and QB Eli Manning hasn’t reacted well to pressure defenses. The concern for Philly is the health of RB Brian Westbrook, who is being called a game-time decision. But this shouldn’t reflect who the Eagles are—because this team has become a big-play offense with DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin. I like Donovan McNabb at The Linc, and I still see Eli struggling with the Eagles’ multiple pressure schemes. Philly is plus-11 in turnover ratio right now, and I see it continuing on Sunday. I am going with McNabb and Philly at home.
Pro Football Talk predicts an Eagles win, 20-17.
Dave Staley of sportsbook.com breaks down the line and over/under for Sunday's Eagles-Giants game:
Q: What's the line for Sunday's matchup?
A: We opened the line at a pick 'em, and it just (Thursday) moved to Giants (minus-1). This line actually surprised me a little bit, as I thought the Eagles would be favored by a point or two. So far, 87 percent of the betting public is on the Giants. I am shocked that this game is so one-sided right now, but I am confident that these numbers will even out a little bit as we get closer to kickoff, especially since the Eagles are now 'dogs.
After five straight wins -- both straight-up and against the spread -- the Giants are coming off two very disappointing losses. Losing a third straight would be quite costly so I think that contributed to this game being closer to a ‘pick’ than I originally thought.
Interesting trend to note: The Giants are 18-4 ATS in their last 22 road games.
As everyone probably remembers, these two teams played three times last season, with Philly winning the last two games, including the 23-11 playoff victory. In both of those victories, the Eagles won despite being underdogs.
Q: What about the over/under?
The total currently sits at 44 after opening up at 43.5. With 95 percent of the action on the over so far, it is obvious why this number has moved, and I think it could easily jump another half-point.
Both teams can put points on the board in bunches as they combine to average 55.1 points per game. However, both teams’ defenses can be very stingy. Take away each team's game against New Orleans, and they combine to give up just 29.4 PPG.
Something potential total bettors might find interesting: the last six times these two teams have played, the over/under has been less than 44.
Q: What are some other trends around the league for Week 8?
A: After glancing at our Betting Trends page, it looks like it will be another interesting weekend of one-sided betting action. The public is currently backing 12 out of the 13 favorites, which is usually the status-quo.
This worked out great for the betting public last week as all of the big favorites covered. Not only did bettors have a profitable Sunday, but many of them were able to double-up on Monday night as 88 percent of the action was on the Eagles and the over.
It has been a pretty profitable season so far for NFL bettors. And after looking at a couple of 2009 trends, it is easy to see why.
Whereas I always love when home teams are getting points, they are just 14-22 ATS so far, which is good news for the public. Even more impressive, favorites of six points or greater are 31-21 ATS in 2009.
That being said, it will be interesting to see if the trend continues this week and if the public will continue to prosper. The big favorites include: Chicago minus-13 (64 percent), Cowboys minus-9.5 (85 percent), Chargers minus-16.5 (77percent), Cardinals minus-10 (98 percent) and Saints minus-10 (89 percent).
Time for our weekly player-by-player look at the Eagles' offense this week.
I've heard from some of you that you'd like a sentence, when possible, describing each guy's overall play. I attempted to do a little more of that.
Brian Westbrook - Looked good on three carries before leaving the game with a concussion. Obviously the team (and Westbrook) would be wise to be overly cautious before getting him back on the field.
LeSean McCoy - Did not have much success replacing Westbrook. Fourteen carries for 37 yards. McCoy whiffed on a block in the second quarter, as the Redskins sacked Donovan McNabb. He looked most comfortable on a couple screen plays and had five catches for 30 yards.
Leonard Weaver – Quiet day for Weaver. Didn't really stand out as a blocker. He did pick up a first down on 3rd-and-1 in the first quarter. His best block probably came on Michael Vick's 9-yard run in the fourth.
Donovan McNabb – Not a good performance for No. 5. He seemed rushed throughout and was off-target on a number of throws. He missed one to Brent Celek in the first and couldn't connect with DeSean Jackson on a couple more later in the game. The protection was not great, but I thought McNabb had time on multiple plays where he just didn't look comfortable.
Michael Vick - I feel like a broken record here (Do we say 'broken record' anymore? Should it be 'malfunctioning IPOD' instead? I feel like a malfunctioning IPOD). Not much doing with Vick's impact on the offense. He completed a pass to Brent Celek for 5 yards and had three carries for 9 yards, all of which came on one play.
DeSean Jackson – What's left to say about him? Jackson is without question the team's biggest playmaker, and he carried the offense Monday night. A 67-yard touchdown run and a 57-yard touchdown catch. He flat-out outran DeAngelo Hall and Laron Landry on the end around. I've heard people speculate that his injury may have occurred on the celebration of the second TD, and after watching the replay, it's quite possible. My only problem is that he didn't get the ball enough. Three touches and two touchdowns. According to ESPN.com's stats, he was targeted five times.
Jeremy Maclin – I really liked his effort, blocking downfield and holding off Carlos Rogers on the Jackson end around. Great to see from a rookie. Maclin caught three straight passes from McNabb in the first quarter when I believe the Eagles were still in the 'scripted' portion of the play-calling. Overall, five catches for 53 yards. He did a good job to keep his feet in bounds for a first down in the third quarter.
Jason Avant – The MTC favorite has been quiet, going without a catch the last two weeks. He has just three catches in the last four games and hasn't had much of an impact other than the Saints game. Avant did have a nice block on a Westbrook run in the first.
Brent Celek – His quietest game of the season. Celek had just three catches for 8 yards. As usual, he had some bright spots and some dull moments as a blocker, particularly on one play where Redskins rookie Brian Orakpo got the best of him.
Alex Smith – Not much to report, although I did notice that with the Eagles only having four wide receivers active, he lined up out wide on a third down in the first quarter. Westbrook was also split out wide on the play, and Jackson and Maclin were not on the field.
Winston Justice – Except for a couple lapses, Justice did a good job. He was called for his first penalty of the season, a false start in the first quarter, and whiffed on his block during a WR screen to Maclin.
Nick Cole and Jamaal Jackson - Including them together because I didn't have many notes on either. The Eagles' interior struggled to create holes for McCoy.
Stacy Andrews – A lot of attention has been given to the additions and lack of effectiveness of Vick and Jeremiah Trotter. But what about Andrews? He got a $40 million contract, and can't even get on the field as we head towards Week 8. He was called for a penalty on one of the few plays where he was in and leads the team with four penalties on the season.
Todd Herremans - He struggled throughout the game, both in pass protection and especially in run blocking. Let's keep in mind that it was his first game of the season, and Herremans was dealing with Albert Haynesworth. He was clearly fatigued in the fourth, getting beat by Haynesworth for a sack and drawing a pair of penalties. The plays where Herremans was effective were when he was able to get to the next level, one on a screen to McCoy, and the other on Vick's 9-yard run.
Jason Peters – I wonder how much Peters' injury slowed him down Monday night. He was not particularly good, especially in pass coverage, and looked slow off the ball. Peters was beat by Andre Carter, who sacked McNabb from the blind side and forced a fumble in the second half.
Giants wide receiver Steve Smith has experienced a great amount of success through the first seven weeks of the 2009 season.
And he expects that to continue Sunday against the Eagles at the Linc.
Speaking to Giants reporters Wednesday, Smith didn't sound like he's expecting to be contained.
"They’re good. They’re savvy guys," Smith said of the Eagles' defensive backs, per Mike Garafolo of the Newark Star-Ledger. "Sometimes they get caught with their eyes in the backfield and you can run right by ‘em sometimes. We’re not going to be surprised if we’re wide open down the field on a play. … (Opportunities are) going to be there. There are going to be a few plays where you’re going to be wide open. You just gotta make the play."
I used to think that the whole "bulletin board material" thing was much ado about nothing. But in the past couple years, it's become clear to me that professional athletes will use anything for motivation.
So who wants to be in charge of making sure Sheldon Brown and Asante Samuel see the quotes?
As for Smith, he leads the NFC in both catches (45) and receiving yards (594). He has four touchdowns but has not reached the end zone in the Giants' last three games.
I wanted to post Man Up today but did not get around to it because of that whole World Series thing. We'll get it out there Thursday morning. I re-watched every offensive snap Tuesday evening and will point out the specific areas where the Birds struggled Monday night.
Not a good showing on the penalty front for the Eagles Monday night.
They were penalized 12 times for 66 yards and are now seventh in the NFL in penalties (45) and penalty yards (356).
Winston Justice was whistled for his first penalty of the season, a false start. Jason Babin, Todd Herremans and Mike Patterson were also flagged for the first times.
Stacy Andrews now leads the team with four penalties on the season.
DeSean Jackson and Macho Harris lead with 30 penalty yards apiece.
The offense was called for six penalties for 27 yards. The 'D' had four for 17. And there were two on special teams for 22 yards against the 'Skins.
Here's the breakdown on the season:
Number of penalties
Stacy Andrews - 4
Nick Cole - 3
DeSean Jackson - 3
Darren Howard - 3
Todd Herremans - 2
Jason Peters - 2
Sean Jones - 2
Asante Samuel – 2
Macho Harris – 2
Quintin Demps - 2
Donovan McNabb - 2
Winston Justice - 1
Mike Patterson - 1
Juqua Parker - 1
Chris Clemons - 1
Joselio Hanson - 1
Leonard Weaver – 1
Jason Avant – 1
Tracy White – 1
Trent Cole - 1
Moise Fokou - 1
Eldra Buckley – 1
Dimitri Patterson - 1
Chris Gocong – 1
Victor Abiamiri - 1
Jason Babin - 1
Note: The Eagles' defense was called for an offsides in Week 1 (officially 6 yards), but it was not attributed to any one player. The 'D' was also called for a 5-yard illegal contact penalty in Week 6 and an offsides in Week 7. Penalties that were declined were not included in the breakdown.
Penalty yards
D. Jackson – 30
Harris – 30
Samuel - 28
Gocong - 24
Demps – 22
Andrews – 20
Parker - 15
Avant - 15
Jones - 15
Howard - 15
N. Cole - 15
Abiamiri -12
Clemons - 11
Peters - 10
Fokou - 10
McNabb - 10
Herremans - 7
Howard – 7
White - 6
Justice - 5
M. Patterson - 5
Hanson - 5
D. Patterson - 5
Buckley - 5
Babin - 5
T. Cole - 5
Weaver - 3
By unit
Offense – 17 for 97
Defense – 16 for 152
Special teams – 12 for 107
Last year in Washington, DeSean Jackson dropped what would have been the game-tying touchdown from Donovan McNabb.
This year, he carried the Eagles to a 27-17 victory.
On the Eagles' fourth offensive play of the game, Jackson took an end around 67 yards to the house for a touchdown, giving the Birds a 7-0 lead.
Later in the half, with the Eagles' offense sputtering and facing a 3rd-and-22, it was Jackson who came through yet again.
He got behind the Redskins' secondary and reeled in a 57-yard bomb, putting the Birds ahead, 27-7.
Jackson was injured on the play but returned in the second half.
Overall, he had two catches for 69 yards and the one carry for 67.
Jackson hadn't reached the end zone since Week 3, but he showed once again that he is the Birds' most dangerous weapon. He now has plays of 50 yards or more in four of the Eagles' six games.
Other thoughts:
** What a debut for Will Witherspoon. The Eagles' new middle linebacker intercepted a deflected Jason Campbell pass and took it to the end zone for a touchdown in the first quarter. He later showed great speed, chasing Campbell down and forcing a fumble. Overall he finished with eight tackles, second to only Akeem Jordan.
** Did you notice Jason Babin got some playing time with Victor Abiamiri sidelined? He had a sack and three tackles.
** Brian Westbrook left the game in the first with a concussion and did not return.
** Macho Harris left the game in the first half but returned in the third quarter.
** Trent Cole had two more sacks. He's up to 6.5 on the season.
** The Eagles as a team had six sacks.
** The Birds' offense struggled again on third down, converting 4-of-15 opportunities.
** The Eagles had 12 penalties for 66 yards.
Update: Our friend Dave Staley of sportsbook.com informs us that the Eagles-Redskins line has moved to Birds (minus-8). When we spoke to Dave last week, it was Eagles (minus-7). But a lot of money seems to be coming in on the Birds. Currently, 88 percent of the action on sportsbook.com is on the Eagles to cover.
Some links to pass along as we wait for Monday night:
** Danny Amendola had five catches for 39 yards Sunday in the Rams' loss against the Colts. He has 13 catches in the past three weeks. Too bad the Eagles couldn't keep Amendola, who spent training camp here and was signed to the practice squad. He'd provide some nice depth, given the way their receiver situation has unfolded.
** Did you notice which ex-Eagle helped lift the Cardinals over the Giants yesterday? How about former third-round pick Matt Ware. He knocked the ball out of Ahmad Bradshaw's grasp when the Giants were driving in the fourth quarter. Ware was best known here for his 65-yard game-winning touchdown return on a blocked field goal against the Chargers back in 2005.
** More ammo for those of you in the "Just run the damn ball, Andy!" corner. The Jets ran it 54 times for 316 yards in their 38-0 win over the Raiders yesterday. They threw it just 15 times. A week before, the Eagles threw it 46 times and ran it 14 (including two by Donovan McNabb).
** Hank Baskett had his first catch with the Colts, a 5-yarder against St. Louis.
** Could A.J. Feeley's chance be coming in Carolina? Jake Delhomme was intercepted three times in the Panthers' loss to the Bills Sunday. Per the Charlotte Observer, coach John Fox would not commit to Delhomme for the first time all season.
"Like all positions, we'll evaluate it and whatever changes we need to make, we'll make," he said.
** SI.com's Peter King has the Eagles 14th in his Fine Fifteen, but he does have the Eagles winning tonight:
You know, maybe Michael Vick is just a lousy option quarterback. Maybe. But I still think the Eagles have to find a way to make Vick more of a factor, perhaps starting tonight against Washington. It's on Andy Reid and Marty Mornhinweg.
** The Cowboys might have themselves a wide receiver. Miles Austin has 421 yards in his last two games.
** We wrote about the Giants' loss to the Cardinals after the game yesterday. I also DVR'd the game and hope to watch it and provide notes before Sunday.
** Yesterday, we took a glance at national opinion on tonight's game. And a reminder that we'll be live chatting at 8:15.
** And finally, my pick. The Eagles' offensive line concerns me. A brutal performance last week, and now they've got a couple guys banged up (Jason Peters and Nick Cole) and are counting on Todd Herremans to have success right away. Plus you've got a new middle linebacker on defense, which could be a good thing, but I'm not sure he'll be able to have an impact instantly. I think the Birds win ugly, and the Redskins cover the 7-point spread. Let's say Eagles 17, Redskins 13.
The Giants will come to Philadelphia next week on a two-game losing streak.
New York did not look good Sunday night, falling to the Cardinals, 24-17, at the Meadowlands.
The Giants turned it over four times, including three Eli Manning interceptions. After a hot start, Manning has completed less than 49 percent of his passes with two TDs and four interceptions in the last two weeks.
Down a touchdown, the Giants were driving with just over a minute left in the game when Manning was picked off by Antrel Rolle at the Cardinals' 21-yard line.
Earlier in the quarter, running back Ahmad Bradshaw fumbled in Arizona territory.
Overall, it was a sloppy performance for the Giants, who were also whistled for seven penalties.
Combine New York's loss with the Cowboys' win over the Falcons, and the landscape in the NFC East has changed. The Giants are still atop the division at 5-2, but Dallas is right behind them (4-2). With a win Monday against the Redskins, the Eagles would be tied with the Cowboys.
And so we're approaching that time of year when things start to get fun. Starting in Washington, the Birds begin a stretch of three straight against NFC East opponents.
Meanwhile, things do not get any easier for the Giants. Check out this stretch: at the Eagles, Chargers, Falcons, at the Broncos, Cowboys, Eagles.
But first things first. We'll be live chatting Monday night's Eagles-Redskins game. And in case you missed it, we did our weekly feature looking at who's picking the Eagles earlier this evening.