5 questions: Eagles playoff scenarios
Can the Eagles still earn the No. 1 seed in the NFC? What do they have to do to get a bye? Here are five answers to five questions about the Birds' playoff scenarios.
5 questions: Eagles playoff scenarios
Sheil Kapadia, Philly.com
There are quite a few playoff questions, theories and scenarios floating around as we look ahead to Week 16, so I wanted to take a moment to provide some clarity.
If you have questions that I did not answer here, e-mail me, and I'll try to answer them.
Q: What do the Eagles need to do to clinch the NFC East?
A: This one's easy, and I mentioned it right after Sunday's game, but it bears repeating. The magic number is one. One Eagles win or one Giants loss in the final two weeks gives the Eagles the division. The Giants play the Packers in Green Bay at 4:15 Sunday, meaning the Birds could have the division locked up by the time they take the field at the Linc against the Vikings at 8:20. In Week 17, the Birds host the Cowboys, and the Giants travel to D.C. to take on the Redskins.
Q: Can the Eagles still earn the No. 1 seed in the NFC?
A: The answer is yes, but it's about as likely as Mike Patterson beating DeSean Jackson in the 40-yard dash. Three things would need to happen. The Eagles would need to win out. The Falcons would need to lose out. And the Saints would have to lose to the Bucs in Week 17. That would put the Eagles and Falcons at 12-4, and the Birds own the tiebreak. If the Bears also finished 12-4, it would create a three-way tie, and the Eagles would still get the one-seed on account of the tiebreak.
Now would be a good time to mention that the Falcons play the 2-12 Panthers in Week 17. In other words, Atlanta's not losing that game, and the Eagles are not getting the one-seed (I know, I know... any given Sunday).
Q: How can the Eagles earn the No. 2 seed?
A: This is the important one because it would give the Eagles a bye in the first round, and they wouldn't have to play on the road until a potential NFC championship.
The Birds have the same record as the Bears (10-4) after Chicago's win last night against the Vikings. But the Bears own the tiebreak since they beat the Eagles earlier this season.
That means the Eagles have to pick up a game on Chicago in the final two weeks to earn the two-seed. The Bears host the Jets at 1 p.m. Sunday. If they lose that game, the Eagles would be in a situation where they'd control their own destiny in terms of earning a bye. They'd have to beat the Vikings Sunday night and beat the Cowboys in Week 17.
The Bears travel to Green Bay to take on the Packers in Week 17.
So, to keep it simple, the Eagles need to do one of two things to edge out the Bears:
1. Finish 2-0 and have the Bears finish 1-1 or 0-2.
2. Finish 1-1 and have the Bears finish 0-2.
In either of those two scenarios, the Eagles get the two-seed and a first-round bye. In all other scenarios, the Bears have the edge.
There's also a scenario in which the Eagles AND the Bears could earn byes. That's the one listed in the previous answer where all three teams (including the Falcons) finish 12-4. Again, highly unlikely that it plays out that way.
Q: Is it possible that the Eagles could face the Giants for a third time?
A: Oh yes. The most likely scenario which would pit the two teams against each other is if the Eagles are the three-seed, and the Giants are the six-seed. If the Birds win the NFC East, but can't overtake the Bears for the two-seed, they'll be No. 3.
And if the Giants get into the playoffs, it will almost definitely be as the No. 6 seed. That would set up a meeting at the Linc in the wild-card round.
As Twitter followe @JSiano pointed out to me (and as commenter Random39 pointed out), if the Eagles are the No. 2 seed, they would not be able to face the Giants until the NFC championship. If New York earns the six-seed and wins on the road in the wild-card round, it would travel to Atlanta to take on the Falcons in the divisional round. The winner of the Saints-NFC West game would come to the Linc.
Q: Do we know anything for sure at this point?
A: Yes. We know the Bears are NFC North champs and will be either the 1-, 2-, or 3-seed.
And we know the Falcons have clinched a playoff berth.
But that's about it.
With the disclaimer that anything can happen on any given Sunday, I'd guess that the following things are very likely:
* The Falcons will earn the No. 1 seed.
* The Eagles will win the NFC East.
* The Saints will earn a wild-card berth and the No. 5 seed.
If those three things happen, what still has to be decided? The Eagles and Bears have to battle for the No. 2 and No. 3 seeds. And the Giants, Packers and Bucs have to fight it out for the second wild-card spot (the six-seed).
The Giants are in with a win next week at Green Bay. The Packers are in if they win out in the final two weeks. It's amazing, but both teams control their own destinies.
Oh, and the NFC West still has to be decided. We could very easily see a 7-9 team hosting the 12-4 (and defending Super Bowl champ) Saints in the wild-card round.
There's still quite a bit to be decided in the final two weeks, but that's where things stand right now.
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I don't want to play the Giants again. It's hard to beat a team for the third straight time. Part of me wants to face the Bears because I think Cutler is a fraud and I think their D is overrated. But it would be back in Chicago and I don't like that too much. I think we could handle the Falcons pretty easily and the Saints are a tough team though I think we have the weapons to compete with them - at least on offense.— Carcharios- the most likely and scary scenario is the iggles meeting the gints in round 1 as the 3rd and 6th seeds.— barrywil
- If the Eagles can't beat the Vikings and Cowboys they don't deserve to go to the playoffs, it's still been a great season. I can't wait until next year.— Dexter
- Can't see the Eagles in the Super Bowl, so the whole playoff thing becomes less important. If they want to go, they should win the next two games. Bears could easily go 1-1, leaving the Eagles as the #2 seed. With our nice 12-4 record, are we going to win three games with these starters: Kurt Coleman, Jamar Chaney, Dmitri Patterson, Ernie Sims, and Max Jean Gilles? Whatever happens, the whole team has shown serious speed, energy, and heart this year. Get a few more players, and Super Bowl is a valid conversation.— tacklinjoe
- Last year the most likely scenario was that the Eagles would not make the playoffs, but they did. I've still got hopes that things fall into place and they get the #2 seed, and a bye week. But watch out - there's a small but finite chance we don't make the playoffs at all, with two losses. Let's hope the players heads aren't getting too big...— dlscholt
Comment removed.
I see Vick returning to Atlanta with the NFC CHampionship and a trip to the Super Bowl on the line.— potus- OK Sheil, will the Birds have a let down against the Vikes or the Boys? It appears that Minn.will limp in with Joe as the QB. But, the Boys will be ready to eat their lunch. As you see it, will the Birds beat both?— Koons
- In my humble opinion (not necessarily Vegas'), the most likely scenario is Green Bay folding and the Eagles playing the winner of the week 17 game between Tampa and New Orleans.
The Eagles will win next week to clinch the division and will most likely be the #2 or #3 seed (yes, still an outside shot at #1).
The Bears are favored at home this week vs. the Jets (Bears currently -1) and vs. the Packers in week 17 in a meaningless game for the Packers. This puts the Bears as the #2, with the Eagles as the #3. The Eagles would then play the #6 seed in the divisional round.
I have the Giants beating the Packers in a close game this week(the Packers are more banged up, and frankly, not as good at this point), eliminating the Packers. The Giants would then win vs. the Redskins in week 17, finishing 11-5 and taking one of the wild card slots).
New Orleans is playing this on the road vs. Atlanta. I have Atlanta winning in the dome (currently -2 1/2) in another close game.
Tampa beats Seattle in week 16, setting up a week 17 match-up between Tampa and New Orleans for the #6 seed, with Eagles hosting the winner.
Thoughts?— PhillyPhan4for4 - giants should respond strong against the Pack, I agree with that. Imagine how easy Rodgers will be to hit after chasing Vick around last week! If Rodgers plays gonna be Packers -2.5. He doesn't, Giants -6. Either way I like the G men in that one.
Jets are traveling on the road out of confrence, which two years ago I would have said was a crucial aspect, but not anymore. If the bears were -5, I would like Chicago but a higher power seems at work with the game just about pickem. The jets will prevent the jets from opening the game up with their pass rush and d line. Plus Rex Ryan in chicago, could have an impact.
The Atlanta game will be close. Both QB's are going to show up, I wouldn't touch it, I would wait for the second half line on that one and go with the hot hand. However I can see Atlanta winning but not covering and in that case go Bucs. Its still a revenge game for New Orleans after that missed FG the week we beat the Jags
— BentLogic - Einstein........How can you in first paragraph say eagles own tiebreaker over Bears and then in the next say Bears own tiebreak over birds.........git ur sheet straight dude....Bears own tie break— ILUVPHILLYCITYOFLOSERS
- "If the Bears also finished 12-4, it would create a three-way tie, and the Eagles would still get the one-seed on account of the tiebreak".
Incorrect...in the highly unlikely event that were to occur, the Bears would win the tiebreak due to their win over the Eagles in Week 12.— cartman369 - Yea Sheil...did you forget the rule about "You can't play a division opponent in the first round of the playoffs" just wondering— cmoney
- If that is the 'Rule' why did the Eagles play Dallas in the first round last year?
— soccerdad1150 -
If the Bears also finished 12-4, it would create a three-way tie, and the Eagles would still get the one-seed on account of the tiebreak
nope.....wrong..........call me I fill ya in prof.— ILUVPHILLYCITYOFLOSERS
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