My editor came over today to ask me about a story -- how President Obama's economic advisors are telling him not to expect any major improvements in employment any time soon. Yet, we see some positive signs in the economy, and indeed, even in employment. Still I'm extremely pessimistic. When I think of the hole we are in, the modest and hopeful predictions of 100,000 jobs a month are simply not enough to put 14.8 million people back to work.
One positive sign is this month's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, a monthly report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This measures the ratio of job openings to job seekers and now there are 5.4 job seekers for every job opening, all 2.7 million of them. That's down from six seekers per job, the prior month. But to put it in perspective, it is twice as high as it was during the WORST month following 2000 recession when it peaked the ratio peaked at 2.8 job seekers for every job. Of course saying that 5.4 job seekers per job is positive is like saying it's great that a machine only amputated two arms instead of two arms and two legs.
That analysis (except the part about the machine amputating body parts) comes from the Employment Policy Institute, which has charted it all out. You can click here to see it.
Some other points worth noting. That 2.8 ratio, the worst following the last recession occurred nearly two years after the official end of the recession. The recession officially ended in November 2001, but the 2.8 ratio peak happened in September, 2003. When the current recession began in December, 2007, there were 1.8 job seekers for each job.
A couple ways you could look at these #'s. If we are twice the # of job seekers per job then there could be more individuals going to school and also more overall individuals in the job market combined with less opportunities. I think its interesting to see this compared to prior years if the unemployment rate seems to be dipping and we're shedding hundreds of thousands less jobs than we were this time last year...I think unemployment # is a better barometer for economy improving. More individuals need to become employable and companies need to create jobs. Training and developing individuals will also be key. What does everyone else think?— asmeezy- Jobs are out there. You just have to know how to play the game better than the other guy(s).— The Baron
- Jane I agree, we are in a deep hole and don't see crawling out of it anytime soon. I also don't expect whatever the President does to help people like myself find full time employment; I don't think it will trickle down far or deep enough. I and many like me will have to keeping working on our own job plan— jbaxt
Every day for 60 days, Inquirer staff writer Jane M. Von Bergen profiled someone from the ranks of the region’s unemployed.
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Cold winter for the jobless
- Ranks of long-term jobless are growing.
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How a printing plant failed
- Big gambles and bad decisions, oil prices and credit crises, even a New Zealand tycoon: All played a role in Downingtown.
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