"If Comcast and GE do reach a deal... they will face a year-long gauntlet of regulatory and political hearings and conditions that threaten to derail" its value, writes Bernstein Research analyst Craig Moffett to clients today. The proposed deal also raises tough questions about ceo Brian Robert's "faith" in cable TV's future, he adds.
He still sees "real potential synergies" from the deal - "the development of more attractive sports properties, better windows for Video on Demand," more personalized advertising. But he's worried about getting it past the regulators.
"The deal would arrive in Washington in a mid-term election year amidst a brewing partisan debate over Net Neutrality... Their pairings of NBC stations in Philadelphia, San Francisco, and other Comcast cable markets will re-open still festoring wounds associated with" the federal Media Ownership Rule limts. "A deal would risk introducing new rhetoric about rising cable rates," a la carte channel pricing, retransmission. "Cable bashing in an election year is a no- lose bipartisan proposition...
"Investors have already penalized Comcast... On the other hand, if the deal isn't consummated, the implications are arguably even worse... The very attempt to acquire content assets will inevitably reignite the questions about whether CEO Brian Roberts has faith in the attractiveness of his core business."
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