Just last fall, Advanta Corp. was weighing a new $50 million Montgomery County headquarters. Just this month, Temple University opened a new Fox School of Business building named for Advanta's founding family, the Alters.
But today, Advanta Class A stock is trading at 67 cents -- a 20-year low. Class A is at 85 cents -- an alltime low. As PhillyDeals noted today, Stifel Nicolaus & Co. today switched its Advanta rating to "sell" from "buy," because Advanta "will no longer be able to survive" higher loan losses, higher finance costs, and falling revenues. At these rates, Stifel worries Advanta will be forced it to pay back its debt early -- and it doesn't have enough cash.
I asked Advanta chief financial officer Phil Browne if the squeeze will force Advanta to pay its bonds back early. "I think it’s not only avoidable but unlikely," he said. Yes, loan losses are up, partly because Advanta isn't growing its loan portfolio with new customers. But the company can still boost interest charges for many of its existing customers, which means revenues might still keep pace with losses: "We still have some repricing options." And it can change the mix of debt that backs investors' bonds, so it doesn't trigger early-repayment threshholds.
Advanta could also cut its dividend -- which costs nearly $40 million a year -- though Browne wasn't suggesting that. The company will put out its 2008 earnings later this month or early in February.
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