Analyst Tony Wible at Janney Capital Markets tracks how U.S. advertisers are targeting you to buy their stuff -- and how fast that's changing with smartphones and PC video and social-media and tracking data:
- Online TV provider Hulu is flashing 80 ads/month at its typical watcher as of October, up from 58 last year and way ahead of YouTube (31) or AOL (26.) "This makes Hulu less of a direct competitor to Netflix," and more like cable TV, he added.
- Multiscreen media advertising "is expected to grow 20%-50% in the next 3 years," according to Nielsen and American Newspaper Association data. Still, "skeptics are unclear" whether even today's distracted media consumers are really watching two screens at once, or just too lazy to turn one off.
- YouTube and other Google sites last month "drew the most unique viewers, at 165 million [and] 506 minutes/viewer", while Facebook was a distant second (70 million viewers, 34 minutes/viewer). But AOL and its affiliates, including Adap.tv, "had a greater reach" of up to half the U.S. population, vs. 3/8 at Google, Wible added, citing ComScore data.
- Digital ad spending on local media, including mobile-phone ads, is expected to grow at a 14% compound annual rate, to $44.5 billion, by 2018, Wible noted, citing BIA/Kelsey. Mobile will account for more than a quarter of digital local ad spending by then -- and local will be more than half of all mobile advertising, up from 3/8 today.
- Geolocation services that make it easier for advertisers and media to track customers are speeding the rise in mobile ads. "The increases in digital will likely come at the expense of radio and traditional print," which is why radio and print have followed everyone else into mobile.
- Game boxes are back: "8th Generation" gamers boosted both PS4 and XboxONE sales to "over a million units in their first day of launch," vs two months to reach that level for last-generation PS3. Wible's conclusion: game "demand is cyclical" and digital gaming "has not destroyed the business" after all. Indeed, it's still possible game boxes will become bases for other media delivery.