Archive: June, 2009
Barron's readers will remember the hairy old bit of stock-chart-watcher-speak -- the "dead cat bounce" -- the kind of price jump that doesn't mean anything, because even a dead cat will bounce, if you drop it from high enough.
We're happy to report that S&P 500 stocks rose 15 percent for the second quarter. Bloomberg, trying hard not to sound at all hopeful, says that's the biggest three-month jump in six years. For what that's worth.
Do you really figure the economy's strong enough, that listed companies are becoming profitable enough, to sustain and justify that kind of price inflation? For the sake of America's pension funds, I hope you're right.
Fannie Mae's home loan portfolio zoomed to $790 billion in May, passing last year's record.
What happens when you lend more money in a weak economy? "Seriously delinquent" loans jumped to 3.42% in May, from 3.15% in April. Check Fannie's new data here. Loans on Page One, losses on Page Two.
They're backing more loans - which is what Obama wants - but more loans are going bad - not surprising in a slump - but plenty costly, since Fannie is backed by us taxpayers.
This summer's gasoline glut (despite higher speculative oil costs), the weak economy and an expansion in foreign refining capacity has Goldman Sachs' energy analysts urging investors to sell Sunoco, Valero, Tesoro and other U.S. refining stocks. Link to MarketWatch summary here.
Seems unfair, no? The gas retailers get all the blame for higher prices, but they don't get to enjoy the higher profits, which go to (mostly) foreign oil producers, and speculators, like hedge and pension funds.
Writes ex-Phillies star turned investment pitchman Lenny Dykstra, in an email, of his former online home: "TheStreet.com is owned by Jim Cramer, for whom I had always held tremendous respect. Nonetheless, I am disappointed with TheStreet.com as they truly let me and my followers down. As far as the reasons behind my absence at TheStreet.com, I can only guess. However, it seems that perhaps jealousy or greed may have been a factor.
"As many of you know, my newsletter was the #1 such publication in the history of TheStreet.com, and I therefore presume that I was cast off to so that the TheStreet.com might attempt to duplicate my strategy and make it their own.
"Today, when you type in "Lenny Dykstra" at TheStreet.com, Jon Najasrian comes up as he was apparently meant to replace me. I am no longer associated with TheStreet.com and have no control over their actions. Although I am saddened by the situation, I nonetheless love what I do and am as committed as ever to continuing to serve my subscribers." He wants fans to check out his "new home" at www.NailsInvestments.com
Re Bernard Madoff's 150-year sentence for defrauding investors today: Albert S. Dandridge 3d, a two-time former senior Securities and Exchange Commission official who's now chairman of the securities practice at Schnader Harrison Segal & Lewis LLP Philadelphia, writes:
"I am not surprised by the 150 year sentence Judge Chin handed down to Bernard Madoff today. Notwithstanding the massive fraud that took place, and the severe losses individuals and entities sustained, I believe the Court probably realizes that Bernie Madoff could not have acted alone in such a huge Ponzi scheme. Madoff was probably going to spend the rest of his life in prison no matter what.
"However, I believe a message is being sent to those who may have been participants in this fraud with Bernie Madoff. Such a sentence will give the SEC and DOJ leverage with respect to such persons to get to the bottom of the scheme, notwithstanding Bernie Madoff’s non-cooperation."
ALSO: "The sentence is of significance to the investors and it sends a loud message to others," said Richard A. Levan, a Philadelphia securities lawyer and former assistant U.S. attorney in Washington DC and senior SEC trial lawyer in Philadelphia whose clients include a Madoff "feeder fund" whose investors lost money.
Next in the Madoff case: "They've also indicted the accountant, and the SEC sued a couple of close confederates claiming they should have known. It suggests that no one at the top of the fraud is cooperating."
How Madoff scandal helped investors: "What's changed dramatically is the tone and toughness of the regulators since the Madoff scandal broke. It is palpable. I find they are more active, less flexible, and in search of tougher penalties.
"The SEC and Finra are definintely more concerned about their public profile. Client investors now know that it's no longer business as usual. They're doing tougher exames and one of their preoccupations is confirming custody -- that the money is really there. They're more likely to act on tips. Their response," in recent cases Levan has been involved with, "is nothing short of impressive. It's a notable step forward."
The 'cap-and-trade' clean-energy bill, which would penalize oil and coal carbon-burners, and subsidize wind, water, solar power, passed the U.S. House of Representatives Friday by a tight 219-212 margin. The Pennsylvania delegation. under pressure by coal and factory owners, voted No, with four of the 12 Democrats joining all seven Republicans in opposition, writes Josh Drobnyk in the Allentown Morning Call's Pennsylvania Avenue blog here.
Rep. Jim Gerlach, R-Pa., whose district sprawls Chester, Berks and western Montgomery counties, is a greenish Republican who considered backing the bill but in the end joined his factory-owning, job-preserving, nervous constituents in opposing the bill. Gerlach's statement here. Phillydeals wrote about Gerlach's dilemma last week here.
The bill faces a tough climb in the US Senate, writes Bloomberg here.
This blog has grown to about 70,000 hits a month. It's written by me, Joe DiStefano, as a base for my print column, also called PhillyDeals, which I write for the Philadelphia Inquirer five days a week.
Not everything in the blog gets into the column, and not everything in the column gets into the blog. Here's what you may have missed if you only read the blog and not the columns this week:
Sunday -- Beneficial Bank and broker Janney missed the sell-off of old Philadelphia companies because they're old-fashioned mutuals, owned by customers and run by insiders. Now they're growing, as their national rivals founder.
Tuesday -- U.S. Rep. Mike Castle, R-Del, tells me he's under pressure to run for Vice President Joe Biden's old Senate seat. But he's disgusted with GOP leaders, and he might retire instead.
Wednesday -- Pennsylvania factory owners press US Rep Jim Gerlach to fight the Clean Energy and Security Act. He voted No when it barely passed the US House three days later. Plus, a flat-tax plan for PA's budget.
Thursday -- Cigna's longtime mouthpiece, Wendell Potter, who defended the Philly insurer thru no end of trouble, has defected. He's blasting for-profit insurers in Congress, and working for Obama-style reform.
Friday -- AIG's paying back the Fed by spinning off a giant Philadelphia-area company in a stock market IPO. And, would-be Sen. Sestak defends (mostly) Boeing's Delco-made Osprey from worried federal watchdogs.
NJ Gov. Corzine on Thursday signed a plan that, unless opposed by the General Assembly, would separate the Cooper University Hospital Physicians group that teaches at the Camden campus of New Brunswick-based Robert Wood Johnson Medical School and reattach them to Glassboro-based Rowan University as a new, South Jersey-based medical school -- Cooper Medical School of Rowan University -- with its own new medical school buildings in Camden, built by Rowan, with borrowed money.
The effect is to give Cooper, and chairman George Norcross, a business insurance broker and Democratic Party fundraiser, its own medical school and a big pile of money, contracts and jobs.
According to a Cooper document Norcross sent me and other reporters, the idea is to keep medical students and patients from leaving the state for Philadelphia rivals like Penn, Jefferson and Temple. "And further, because medical schools create at least $5 in economic activity for every $1 spent, we will be creating an economic driver," according to the statement. "It is a stimulus-type project."
Of course, as usual, taxpayers and insurance ratepayers are footing the bill, whose total cost is not part of the Cooper statement.
From the Cooper document:
"Q. Why not UMDNJ?
A. This was a decision by the Governor to move a four-year school forward immediately. UMDNJ is not in a financial position to finance the necessary new building at this time.
"Q. Where will the money come from to run the new Medical School?
A. Existing levels of funding to the Camden Campus plus tuition from the new students and reasonable assumptions with respect to research grants and private donations are sufficient to run the new Medical School.
A survey of 290 private, independent and community charitable foundations by Commonfund Institute, Wilton, Conn., says the typical fund lost more than a quarter of every endowment dollar last year, after losing another dime in 2007.
No wonder charitable giving is down, when the foundations waste so much of it trying to turn lead into gold.
Last year's 26 percent loss is a result of foundations pouring donors' money into U.S. stocks (down 36 percent), foreign stocks (down 41 percent), private equity (down 8 percent, but who really knows, given the "reporting lags" in those assets' results), hedge funds (down 16 percent, but we're not completely sure of that, either), commodities (down 23 percent) and junk bonds (down 14 percent).
"As markets fell sharply in the last months of 2008, it became very difficult for foundations to rebalance their portfolios," said John Griswold, executive director of Commonfund Institute, whose affiliates manage $24 billion for small colleges and nonprofits.
The foundations in the survey lost a combined $44 billion, leaving them with $131 billion.
Why don't they just put it in government bonds and insured CDs?
The Treasury Department wants to force companies that own financial subsidiaries to be regulated as banks. That's tightened the pressure on a handful of "industrial loan companies" and other specialty firms that are lightly regulated in Utah and other business-friendly states, to accept tighter federal regulations.
Janney Montgomery Scott analyst Thomas C. McCrohan urged investors Wednesday morning to sell one such stock, Wright Express Corp., Salt Lake City, which manages gasoline service station credit cards for corporations and business vehicle fleets. The stock fell almost $3 that day.
"For a small company, they have huge reach - their cards are accepted at over 90% of U.S. gas stations," and you see "Wright card" bugs next to Visa and MasterCard everywhere, says Leonard DeProspo CFA, McCrohan's assistant. The Janney team says Wright has to either sell its financial arm, or turn into a bank. Both are expensive and "have negative implications for long-term earnings power."
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