Tuesday, October 13, 2015

Tiki's good guess

Tiki Barber and the business of predictability.

Tiki's good guess

On NBC the other night, Tiki Barber's cohorts were lauding him because Barber apparently predicted in the studio that Andy Reid would call running plays on third-and-3 and fourth-and-1 near the end of the Eagles' loss to the Giants. You might have heard that the plays failed.

By definition, that makes them lousy play calls -- and that's on the coach, and that's fine. But when Barber said that Reid had become "predictable" in those situations, well, that isn't true. On fourth-and-1, everybody knew it was going to be a running play because virtually everybody in the NFL runs in that situation. There was no special clairvoyance required there, despite the back-patting occurring on television.

The issue was the third-and-3. Maybe the formation tipped Barber to something, but that isn't what he said.  What  he said was that  Reid had become predictable. But there was nothing predictable about the play. It might have been a lousy play but it wasn't predictable. The Eagles had not run on third-and-3 all season, not once. How could this be predictable?

For what it's worth, here are the six previous third-and-3 plays this season.

Dallas, first quarter, incomplete to DeSean Jackson.
Pittsburgh, second quarter, 4-yard pass to Lorenzo Booker. (Who?)
Chicago, third quarter, incomplete to Reggie Brown.
San Francisco, second quarter, complete to Jackson for 2 yards.
Seattle, first quarter, incomplete to Kevin Curtis.
Seattle, second quarter, complete to Curtis for 26 yards.

That's it -- six plays, six passes, two successful conversions.

There was nothing predictable about a running play when the Eagles broke the huddle there. For Tiki Barber, it was a good guess.

Daily News Executive Sports Editor
About this blog
Rich Hofmann arrived at the Daily News in 1980 for a job whose status was officially designated as "full-time, temporary." A senior at Penn at the time, he was hired to fill in on the copy desk during a staff illness. The notion of him covering the Eagles or being a columnist did not exist in anyone's imagination. It was supposed to be six weeks and out, but he never left. It is only one of the reasons why so many people have concerns about him as a potential house guest. Rich has blogged the postseasons of the Flyers and Eagles. E-mail Rich at hofmanr@phillynews.com Reach Rich at hofmanr@phillynews.com.

Rich Hofmann Daily News Executive Sports Editor