How big an underdog are the Flyers?
When life begins with a broken sewage pipe.
How big an underdog are the Flyers?
Rich Hofmann, Daily News Sports Columnist
If life indeed begins on opening day, and if Bill Parcells is right when he says that you are what your record says you are, the Chicago Blackhawks had the third-best record in the NHL this season with 112 points, the Flyers were tied for the 18th-best record with 88 points, and we all might as well just save the airfare.
I would posit a different start date, though: December 23, 2009. It was after the firing of Flyers coach John Stevens and after a hellish shakedown cruise at the start of Peter Laviolette's tenure, as he implemented his attacking system and his team got in better shape to play it. Historians will note that the previous day, December 22, practice was cancelled because of a busted sewage pipe at St. Pete Times Forum in Tampa. After everyone had a day of easy jokes -- you know: "The Flyers stink so bad, are they sure it was the pipe they were smelling?" -- they began a nice winning stretch until the Olympic break that marked them as one of the top teams in the NHL in that period of time.
Seeing as how the Blackhawks also played great during that stretch, they are not being slighted by using that start date. And seeing as how the NHL has, for years, been all about how you play in the second half of the season, and given the Flyers' unique circumstances, it seems pretty fair and pretty instructive.
Don't get me wrong -- Chicago still wins the comparison. But it ceases to be the difference between the third-best team and the 18th. Instead, it becomes the difference between the team that is No. 2 in points and the team that is No. 7.
Here's the top of the list, since December 23:
1) Washington 71, 2) Chicago 63, 3) San Jose 62, T4) Detroit, Vancouver, Phoenix 61, 7) Flyers, Carolina 56, T9) Ottawa, Los Angeles 54, T11) Nashville, St. Louis, Buffalo 53, 14) Anaheim 52, T15) New Jersey, Monteal 51, T15) Pittsburgh, Boston, New York Rangers 50.
You look at the list, and isn't all that predictive in some cases. Lack of predictability is what makes the tournament great. But in calculating what's really an upset, and the magnitude of an upset, this is probably a better guide than the regular-season standings. It suggests that, after Washington, the Flyers -- even with all of their struggles, and their goaltending injuries, and their loss of leading scorer Jeff Carter for a stretch -- were the next-best team in the NHL Eastern Conference over nearly the last 50 games. So even though the Flyers' road was dizzying, those standings suggest that their survival is not the shock that it sometimes seems to be.
All of which means that the Blackhawks deserve to be favorites here, but not in any prohibitive sense. If you look at the team' records against the top 10 teams in these revised standings you see that Chicago played a ton more games against the best teams -- 16, compared to only 7 for the Flyers. The Blackhawks got 56 percent of the available points against those top 10 teams, the Flyers got 57 percent. Chicago clearly was more battle-tested. But after the last 6 weeks, does that matter anymore?
Yes, the Blackhawks should be favored -- but not off-the-charts. That is clear if you have watched the Flyers in the playoffs but it is also clear from the regular season, if you examine the most relevant snapshot.
Ole, Ole, Ole! In game 5 when Lappy blocked that shot the Flyer fans came alive to show their gratitude, you could feel the energy rise in the Flyers. I want to hear you all game Flyer fans. Get off your hands and get LOUD! Show this team you are relentless too!— Kolb- Determination, grit and hustle is what sets this team apart. I smell Lord Stanley!!!— BigShow
- Phils93.......It was either: Rod Brind'Amour, Kevin Haller or Rob DiMaio. I hope this jars your memory so you can remember which one!— DandyFarAndy
- The Hawks are smart enough to not take the Flyers for granted, therefore the Hawks will step up as the experts predict & win the cup in 5. Sorry flyer fans...it all ends right here 3 victories short for you guys. HAWKS WIN!— HawksWin
- If you think there is value in the Flyers, bet them. The line is only a reflection of legal bookmakers attempting to get even action. The Hawks are favored heavily for a reason. Flyers will get dumped in 5.— shirleyf
- Your absolutely right Rich, this is not the same team that lost so many games pre December. The Flyers are right in this. The team with the hottest goalie usually wins the cup and there's no denying the Flyer's got the hottest goalie in the playoffs. This is gonna be a LOT closer then the national guys realize. The way Leighton's been playing and the defenders in front of him I wouldn't be surprised to see another shutout.— Jangocat
- whatever it takes to get you flyers fans to believe you'll win! (j/k)— shirleyf
- Report abuse Posted 11:57 AM, 05/26/2010Slidewell I haven't watched any of Chicago's games up to this point. But, have any of their opponents been able to fore check the way the Flyers have? --- flyers fans haven't even seen chicago play yet! lol... i hope old man pronger is well rested!— shirleyf
- GO HAWKS...THIS TEAM DIDN'T FINISH THAT FAR AHEAD OF THE FLYERS BY ACCIDENT! TOP GA IN THE LEAGUE...MOST POTENT OFFICE..WELL BALANCED...LOOK FOR HOSSA TO BREAK PHILLY FANS HEARTS!— glenhall
- @shirleyf, I've watched the Blackhawks play. I've watched quite a few of the Blackhawks playoff games this year, along with the regular season matchup against the Flyers. The Blackhawks are not as physical as the Flyers. That's going to be the interesting deal. This will be a great series. It won't end in the 5 games like many of the Blackhawks "fans" think. It's almost universal that this series will go at least 6 and maybe even all 7.— buttermilk67
- You guts say the Flyers have the hottest goalie, but that was against the habs' weak offense. Niemi stopped 44 shots TWICE against the Sharks.— honk
- @glenhall: "most potent office"? Anyway, Chicago was third in goals per game. Philly was eighth. Not much of a difference there. And why do you think a third line winger will break Philly fans hearts? And in reality, the best GAA in the playoffs belongs to Philly, not Chicago. Chicago also wasn't top in the regular season either. If you're going to spout off, at least have the correct facts.— buttermilk67
The point difference in the regular season tells it all. I don't know how the Flyers can even be on the same ice as the Hawks. The Flyers better not show up.— delcodanno- Go Flyers! Will be watching here in Perth Australia
- Go Flyers! Will be watching here in Perth Australia
