How big an underdog are the Flyers?
When life begins with a broken sewage pipe.
How big an underdog are the Flyers?
Rich Hofmann, Daily News Sports Columnist
If life indeed begins on opening day, and if Bill Parcells is right when he says that you are what your record says you are, the Chicago Blackhawks had the third-best record in the NHL this season with 112 points, the Flyers were tied for the 18th-best record with 88 points, and we all might as well just save the airfare.
I would posit a different start date, though: December 23, 2009. It was after the firing of Flyers coach John Stevens and after a hellish shakedown cruise at the start of Peter Laviolette's tenure, as he implemented his attacking system and his team got in better shape to play it. Historians will note that the previous day, December 22, practice was cancelled because of a busted sewage pipe at St. Pete Times Forum in Tampa. After everyone had a day of easy jokes -- you know: "The Flyers stink so bad, are they sure it was the pipe they were smelling?" -- they began a nice winning stretch until the Olympic break that marked them as one of the top teams in the NHL in that period of time.
Seeing as how the Blackhawks also played great during that stretch, they are not being slighted by using that start date. And seeing as how the NHL has, for years, been all about how you play in the second half of the season, and given the Flyers' unique circumstances, it seems pretty fair and pretty instructive.
Don't get me wrong -- Chicago still wins the comparison. But it ceases to be the difference between the third-best team and the 18th. Instead, it becomes the difference between the team that is No. 2 in points and the team that is No. 7.
Here's the top of the list, since December 23:
1) Washington 71, 2) Chicago 63, 3) San Jose 62, T4) Detroit, Vancouver, Phoenix 61, 7) Flyers, Carolina 56, T9) Ottawa, Los Angeles 54, T11) Nashville, St. Louis, Buffalo 53, 14) Anaheim 52, T15) New Jersey, Monteal 51, T15) Pittsburgh, Boston, New York Rangers 50.
You look at the list, and isn't all that predictive in some cases. Lack of predictability is what makes the tournament great. But in calculating what's really an upset, and the magnitude of an upset, this is probably a better guide than the regular-season standings. It suggests that, after Washington, the Flyers -- even with all of their struggles, and their goaltending injuries, and their loss of leading scorer Jeff Carter for a stretch -- were the next-best team in the NHL Eastern Conference over nearly the last 50 games. So even though the Flyers' road was dizzying, those standings suggest that their survival is not the shock that it sometimes seems to be.
All of which means that the Blackhawks deserve to be favorites here, but not in any prohibitive sense. If you look at the team' records against the top 10 teams in these revised standings you see that Chicago played a ton more games against the best teams -- 16, compared to only 7 for the Flyers. The Blackhawks got 56 percent of the available points against those top 10 teams, the Flyers got 57 percent. Chicago clearly was more battle-tested. But after the last 6 weeks, does that matter anymore?
Yes, the Blackhawks should be favored -- but not off-the-charts. That is clear if you have watched the Flyers in the playoffs but it is also clear from the regular season, if you examine the most relevant snapshot.
It really should be shocking how little respect the Flyers are getting, but the hatred for this team is beyond anything appropriate to sports. You go back and think about how insane their fall slump was, it still makes no sense. But during their good stretches, they are one of the top teams in the league. Its crazy that so many haters can't look at the fact that the Flyers, in the playoffs, have one of the best defenses, and have been shutting teams down conistently. The Hawks are a better team than they've faced, but to say the Flyers have no chance isn't analysis, it's hate.— Pelti
the flyers are way overmatched... chicago has it all... youth... talent... speed... power... goaltending... the flyers are just grinders... bottom line: flyers in 5.— elmeaux_b
Comment removed.- The Blackhawks have not faced a defensive quartet playing anywhere near the level of Pronger-Timonen-Carle-Coburn. That's something everyone's overlooking. Next, look at the numbers. From all the Hawks fans, I expected megagoals. I didn't see many more goals than the Flyers. The Flyers may not win this series, but I like their chances if they continue to play at least as well as they have since 0-3.— either orr
- It should be a good series, but the Hawks just have too much depth, speed, and 4 lines that can score. The defense does not get better than keith and seabrook, harjmasson and campbell. Pronger is 35..he's not the player he once was and won't keep up with the hawks, big buff will have another big series and the flygirls will go down in 5 games...your 'destiny' will end this series.— glenhall
- can someone please help me? my father and i went to the playoff game against the devils in jersey in 1995. We're having an argument who scored the SH breakaway goal to win the game. Brind'amour or desjardins...hockey reference credits brind'amour with a SH goal but my father won't believe me...can anyone find out with video/analysis that this happened?— phills93
- hEY ITS A GOOD THING the Flyers are underdogs.. they will play with that mentality like they have nothing to lose... They keep that edge within each players and that is what will get them to win this series!!! Go Flyers— nixman101
- Flyers like being the underdogs like they have been since the playoffs started. Flyers in 6 games !! Go ORANGE AND BLACK !— fshldy1
- The Flyers were the underdog in every series except maybe Montreal. Chicago was favored in all of their series and will be again in the finals. Who really cares. @glenhall, the Blackhawks don't get a lot of scoring at all from their third or fourth lines. Hossa, with 24 goals, represents about 80% of the goals scored by their third and fourth lines. They don't get scoring from the third and fourth lines at all. Also, the Blackhawks have one good defensive pairing and two average ones. Flyer fans also have seen Pronger keep up with Mike Camilleri, Brian Gionta, Marc Savard, Phil Kessel, and Ilya Kovalchuk. I don't think he'll have problems with Toews and Kane. This isn't going to be the Blackhawks blowout like many of their fans think.— buttermilk67
- I know one thing: the Flyers fear NO ONE!!!!! BTW - the (sic) expert Vegas Vic is more wrong then right. Lets go Flyers Lets Go!!!!!!— StJames888
glenhall - big buff, not unlike your Hawks, is gonna fall on his big duff. Flyers in 6. Count on it.— DaveCicc- Hey Belz, the flyers haven't played a team on aroll like chicago?? Umm, they just beat the team that knocked out the presidents trophy winner and the defending champs in 5 games! doesn't get any hotter than that.— TheCaptain18
- the blackhawks will not be able to handle the physicality of the flyers,the blackhawks will not be able to handle the pounding and will wilt under it just as the devils did,the bruins did and the canadians did— lifemaster
- The Cup will remain in PA, but in the best city in the state, Philadelphia. Glenhall, big talk for a team that hasn't won anything in 49 years. Stay cocky, the Blackhawks fans are in for a surprise. Flyers in 6. Book it.— BobbyD
- I think that it all depends on how you are playing at that moment. Think back at the 2005 Steelers. They backed into the playoffs as a 6 seed, won three games on the road and won the Super Bowl, because they got some breaks and they got hot and they were healthy. Well, the Flyers got some breaks (that's an understatement), they are healthy now, and they are red hot. The experts have to pick Chicago because they rely on paper to make their picks. But behind closed doors they are all picking the team that will win it: the Flyers. They have a hot goalie, a coach who demands nothing but perfection, and a bunch o veterans who are hungry. Chicago has talent and size, but the Flyers are a momentum machine right now that cannot be stopped. Flyers in six.— fb-omniscient
