Posted: Friday, November 14, 2008, 10:27 AM | 14 comments |
 

Eagles playoff odds: 1 out of 3
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I had pulled the number out of my, uh, pocket the other day on Daily News Live, saying that I thought the Eagles had about a one out of three chance of making the playoffs with seven games left.

Turns out, my, uh, pocket has been vindicated by the number-crunchers at footballoutsiders.com. They update the playoff odds every week for every team, running some kind of simulation where they play out the season 10,000 times on their computer and commence ciphering.

Last week, before they lost to the Giants, the Eagles were slightly better than 50-50 to make the post-season. Now, with just that one loss, the number has plummeted to 34.9 percent. (By comparison, the Giants are 97 percent, the Redskins are 55.1 percent and the Cowboys -- despite the bravado of owner Jerry Jones -- are 2.5 percent.) How the Eagles could be about 15 times more likely than the Cowboys to get in makes me wonder, seeing as how they have the same record and the Cowboys already beat the Eagles, but ours is not the reason why. Ours is just to report what the computer says.

Anyway, one out of three.

Posted by Rich Hofmann @ 10:27 AM  Permalink | 14 comments
14
Comments   
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 12:25 PM, 11/14/2008
    The reason we are 15 times more likely than Dallas is because we got that genius head coach that's going to put the players in better positions to make plays during these last 7 games. Remember Andy Reids word is the gospel.
    — power808
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 12:45 PM, 11/14/2008
    Thanks for stating the obvious Power, LOL!
    — cecilturtle
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 12:56 PM, 11/14/2008
    Is it just me or is Mr Fatty getting Fatter?
    — Alycia Layn
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 1:29 PM, 11/14/2008
    Eagles and other NFC teams have better conference records than the cowboys which is the tie breaker for the wildcard not division or head to head records.
    — who123
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 1:43 PM, 11/14/2008
    Birds will get a Wild Card, then lose that game, and nobody will care. (yawn)
    — Bake McBride
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 2:38 PM, 11/14/2008
    So if Eagles miss playoffs again, it will be 3 out of 4 years. Only year they did make it Jeff Garcia got them there. Then they let him go only for Garcia to take Tampa Bay to the playoffs last season while Eagles limped home. Great decision to let him go and keep Donovan. The Gold Standard comes thru again. Brillant!
    — BobbyD
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 2:42 PM, 11/14/2008
    Hey who, first division ties are settled THEN conference records. If it comes down to just the Cowboys and Eagles for a wildcard spot, head to head and division record WILL decide who gets a shot.
    — Bazalite
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 2:52 PM, 11/14/2008
    BobbyD, it was also the same season where passing to run ratio was closer to 50/50 instead of 65/35. It has nothing to do with Garcia (and by the way, they lost in the playoffs anyway).
    — psv
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 3:54 PM, 11/14/2008
    hey brazalite, IF cowboys eagles go into a tie breaker together, cowboys win. We played the NFC west none of which have a chance at the wild card so head to head is out the window for four teams, ODDS(whole point of the article) are conference record will decide the last wildcard sport, with a better record in the conference right now and less conference games left they are more likely. Neither Eagles or Dallas are in the wild card spot now. They both have four teams ahead them for two spots plus three division leaders. West is all but wrapped up.
    — who123
  • Comment removed.
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 4:56 PM, 11/14/2008
    McSameOldBush... what, are you illiterate? learn to make a cohesive sentence and then you can comment. That makes NO sense.
    — Weldon Rumproast
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 5:57 PM, 11/14/2008
    The Eagles are going to finish 8-8. 9-7 at best. They won't make the playoffs...again; and next year Andy Reid will be the coach and he'll draft the wrong players again. It's a never ending cycle. Until Jeffrey Lurie decides that he wants to win or try to win a superbowl like he did when he first bought the team; we'll be stuck with finishing in the middle; while the Eagles have a full stadium on Sundays and make millions.
    — chgtown
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 9:30 AM, 11/15/2008
    Thank you psv. I've been trying to say that for years now. For whatever reason, nobody seems to get that. They went on that run and made the playoffs that year because they showed a commitment to running the ball. Now, I think Garcia had something to do with that because had McNabb been in, they would've just continued to pass like they did, but Jeff Garcia was not savior that year. He just didn't make mistakes. Hey Rich, how was dinner at the Reids' house last night?
    — phillyfan412
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 12:19 PM, 11/15/2008
    Andy Reid is a Boob!!!!
    — GalRand


14 comments
About Rich Hofmann
Rich Hofmann arrived at the Daily News in 1980 for a job whose status was officially designated as "full-time, temporary." A senior at Penn at the time, he was hired to fill in on the copy desk during a staff illness. The notion of him covering the Eagles or being a columnist did not exist in anyone's imagination. It was supposed to be six weeks and out, but he never left. It is only one of the reasons why so many people have concerns about him as a potential house guest. Rich has blogged the postseasons of the Flyers and Eagles. E-mail Rich at hofmanr@phillynews.com

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