Posted: Wednesday, November 12, 2008, 11:30 AM | 12 comments |
 

Eagles? Playoffs? Some scenarios
options
 

Because I had nothing better to do, I spent a half-hour doing the win/loss thing with the Eagles and other potential NFC wildcard rivals.

Begin with today's contenders:

The 6-3 teams are Tampa Bay, Washington and Atlanta. The 5-4 teams are Chicago, Minnesota, Dallas and the Eagles. Either Chicago or Minnesota is likely to win its division, taking one team out of the equation. The rest will fight for the two wildcards.

I'm not going to bore you with the details, but I then played win/loss. Some of it was based on gut feelings, some on a personal calculation of future point spreads. It's obviously just a guess but, well, I was a little under-employed today and had some time.

Anyway, this is the result. We'll start with Chicago finishing 10-6 and winning its division. Then:

Tampa Bay...11-5.

Washington...11-5.

Atlanta...10-6.

Minnesota...8-8.

Dallas...8-8.

Which leaves the Eagles. They need to get past the Redskins or they cannot be considered for the final wildcard -- that's just how the system works, one time per division put into the tiebreaker at any given moment. If they could get to 10 wins by somehow sweeping the remaining division games -- including at the Giants -- they would have a chance to tiebreaker the Redskins out of the picture, believe it or not. That is assuming the Redskins lose to the Giants at home and the Eagles beat the Redskins in Landover, Md. That is a bunch of assuming. If that were to happen, though, and if the the Eagles and Redskins both had 10 wins, they would be 3-3 in the division and the Eagles then would move ahead based upon their record in common games. Then they would tiebreaker the Falcons out of the way because they beat them head to head. And then the Eagles would put the tooth under their pillow and wake up to find it replaced by a dollar.

 Realistically, it is going to take 11 wins -- 6-1 to end the season -- and one of those 11 is going to have to be at Washington, which could knock the Redskins down to 10 wins.

The details clearly are for amusement purposes only (and, granted, I"m pretty easily amused). But the conclusion is fair. Eleven or bust.
Posted by Rich Hofmann @ 11:30 AM  Permalink | 12 comments
12
Comments   
  • Comment removed.
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 12:49 PM, 11/12/2008
    Hank - do people tell you how to do your job? Do you have nothing better to do than criticize people you don't know?
    — doorspj24
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 12:54 PM, 11/12/2008
    Ignore hank- this is actually important news. I don't have the time to play win/loss, unfortunately, but I'm glad you did. We are all wondering what it will take to make the playoffs. Sadly, based on the this year's past history, I don't think they can get to 11 wins. They will come close, maybe 10, but they will lose another game they will be close to winning and not seal the deal, and that will be enough to stop them (on top of the other games they should have one- ie Chicago).
    — libertyof76
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 1:02 PM, 11/12/2008
    I think this has been known for some time now. 10-6 probably won't be good enough right now. I always thought 11 wins and the eagles will have taken care of their own destiny...10-6 there are way too many other vairables in play. That is why the Bears game was a killer.
    — montymiller
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 1:33 PM, 11/12/2008
    how many wins do we THINK the Birds will finish with? any takers...
    — gress79
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 1:34 PM, 11/12/2008
    Hey hank, did you ever notice that your user name is printed on top of your comments? You see, you really don't need to add your initials ar the end of every one of your posts. If you think that you're adding some kind of clever signature to place your own personal stamp on the comment, not to worry, you already have a trademark in your postings, and it is called chronic negativity. You could also call it constant whining if that works better for you. -sr
    — steverawthar
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 2:12 PM, 11/12/2008
    Eagles will be lucky to get to 8-8. This article was a waste of space and even though you had nothing else to do, it was a waste of your time, Rich. I am ashamed I wasted my time reading it, none the less posting to it. Oh, and my initials are SW.
    — stevewnj1
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 2:17 PM, 11/12/2008
    10-6 11-5 seems pretty optimistic...Thats ok though ILUVPHILLYCITYOFWINNERS!!!!!!!!!!!
    — ILUVPHILLYCITYOFLOSERS
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 3:43 PM, 11/12/2008
    Rich, The NFL has notified the Ravens that there is a chance the Eagles-Ravens game in Baltimore on Nov. 23 may have its starting time moved to 8:30 pm as part of the flex scheduling agreement with the networks. I heard the Eagles were 0-8 in their recent primetime games. If that rescheduling happens, I think eleven wins = zero chance.
    — hairball
  • Comment removed.
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 6:55 PM, 11/19/2008
    Rich states: "Realistically, it is going to take 11 wins -- 6-1 to end the season..." This is flat out wrong and doesn't take into consideration the tie game. The Eagles are 5-4-1 and since the regular season is 16 games, they only have 6 left, not 7. In talking about possible playoff scenarios then, they would have to go 6-0 to end up 11-4-1, or 5-1 to end up 10-5-1.
    — VermontPhilsFan
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 7:06 PM, 11/19/2008
    SORRY....didn't notice this column was posted before the tie *blushing*
    — VermontPhilsFan


12 comments
About Rich Hofmann
Rich Hofmann arrived at the Daily News in 1980 for a job whose status was officially designated as "full-time, temporary." A senior at Penn at the time, he was hired to fill in on the copy desk during a staff illness. The notion of him covering the Eagles or being a columnist did not exist in anyone's imagination. It was supposed to be six weeks and out, but he never left. It is only one of the reasons why so many people have concerns about him as a potential house guest. Rich has blogged the postseasons of the Flyers and Eagles. E-mail Rich at hofmanr@phillynews.com

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