Sam Farmer in the Los Angeles Times is reporting that Michael Vick will meet with NFL commissioner Roger Goodell today, prior to the Eagles' game against the Jets, and that Vick will be told when he is being reinstated by the commissioner.
This is all happening faster than I thought it would. While there is no hint about what the reinstatement date might be -- it could be anywhere from the first week to the sixth week of the season -- it sure seems as if it's going to be sooner rather than later. And Goodell is on the record already as saying that he thought Vick was taking the right steps.
The conventional wisdom has been wrong a couple of times already about Vick -- that the Eagles would never be interested, that the off-the-field protests and stuff would be paralyzing, that the fan base was painfully divided by the move. So, for what it's worth, my conventional wisdom all along was a reinstatement for Week 3.
We should know soon.
Join the Daily News' Rich Hofmann for a live Eagles chat at 1 p.m. He'll take your questions on Michael Vick, Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook and whatever else is on your mind.
Well, we can all pretty much agree that pitching Brad Lidge on four consecutive days is officially a bad idea. It is safe to assume that, after Tuesday night's conflagration in Pittsburgh, that Phils manager Charlie Manuel won't be running Lidge out there back to back to back to back anymore.
But, well, what is the proper way to use a closer who was perfect last year, who is signed for two more years of big money after this one, but who has now blown nine saves this year?
I think there are enough numbers that suggest a pretty clear course of action, and it is this: the Phils should not pitch Lidge on back to back days anymore (no less back to back to back to back). That's it. They need two closers if they are going to win another World Series.
Now for the numbers. You can argue with my assumptions, but here goes. First, I'm limiting myself to the games since Lidge returned from the disabled list in late June. To me, that just makes sense. It's a decent-sized sample and it has the benefit of being the most recent experience. Second, I'm removing the four games when Lidge was brought in with the Phillies trailing. He was terrible in three of those four games (two with rest, one without rest). This suggests it isn't a rest issue but a closer-lacking-adrenalin issue, which is common and which will not happen in the post-season.
Best as I can cipher, that leaves us with 21 appearances where Lidge entered a game either tied or with a lead, 12 with at least one day of rest and nine with no days of rest.
With rest: 2.38 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 75 percent of the appearances without allowing an earned run.
Without rest: 9.95 ERA, 1.90 WHIP, and 56 percent of the appearances without allowing an earned run.
That seems plain enough. I think the evidence is there. They need another guy -- not to take over the job but to augment what Lidge can still give them. Or they need a committee of guys to work on the days when Lidge cannot. Over at High Cheese, Dave Murphy has a post where he runs you through potential members of the committee.
But they need to start recognizing the framework around which they can build their ninth innings. The goal for September should be to pitch Lidge only when rested and see if the numbers hold up. If they do, you have continued to express a reasonable level of confidence in your struggling closer and you have created your framework. If they don't, you have spent the month getting somebody else ready -- and my money would be on Mr. Escalade, Brett Myers.
Because prodigal football celebrities, like plane crashes and movie-actor deaths, come in threes, and seeing as how Brett Favre -- according to an ESPN report, and pending a physical -- has now joined Michael Vick among the NFL's newly employed, there is only one possible third candidate: John Madden.
I mean, we all know he only retired in the first place because he really believed Favre was done this time. Silly John.
Because you can bet on anything these days, even outside of the state of Delaware, the following odds on different Michael Vick propositions arrive courtesy of bodog.com.
How many games will Michael Vick be suspended for?
Over 4 Games Even
Under 4 Games 2/1
Exactly 4 Games 2/1
Will Michael Vick start a game at QB this season?
Yes 2/1
No 1/3
Will Michael Vick be a Philadelphia Eagle for week 1 of the 2010 NFL season?
Yes 1/2
No 9/5
What will Michael Vick have more of in the 2009 NFL season?
Passing 6/5
Rushing 2/3
How many passing yards will Michael Vick have for the 2009 NFL season?
Over/Under 160
How many rushing yards will Michael Vick have for the 2009 NFL season?
Over/Under 200
What position will Michael Vick be lined up in the first time he enters a game?
Quarterback 3/2
Running Back 3/5
Wide Receiver 9/1
What will Michael Vick record first?
Passing Touchdown 3/2
Rushing Touchdown 3/5
Receiving Touchdown 4/1
Michael Vick's first pass attempt will be?
Complete 2/3
Incomplete or Interception 6/5
Will Donovan McNabb catch a pass this season?
Yes 8/1
No 1/16
It was just a coincidence, Giants coach Tom Coughlin said, that he had his defense practicing against the Wildcat offense on the morning after the Eagles signed Michael Vick.
"It was," Coughlin said. "It really was. These schedules are made well in advance."
He wasn't lying -- the practice schedule was probably drawn up in the spring sometime. But the conversation will continue on two levels here, and it will continue for months that way. On the one hand, Vick did jail time for his involvement in a dog-fighting scheme that including drowning and electrocuting the animals. On the other hand, the guy is a football player and he will create some issues for opposing defenses once he is on the field.
"I have no idea what their plans are," Coughlin said. "We play Philadelphia relatively middle and late, so hopefully we’ll have a chance to see what their plan is by then and be prepared for it. But I think it’s something that because it was introduced to the league and because so many people got involved in it, we had planned to work against it as best we could in training camp. Even if it’s just to show everybody what basically the offense is, what the combinations of plays are."
Meanwhile, general manager Jerry Reese was asked if this made the Eagles better.
"Oh, I don’t know that," Reese said "…Who knows? I’m happy that he’s got a second chance to move on in his life and again, I wish him the best except when he plays us.
Two tracks, two separate conversations. Months to go.
Once they acquired Pedro Martinez, the Phillies owed it to themselves to find out. Once that was established, they owed it to the team to adjust the starting rotation in the manner that best allowed the team to win -- which meant that Jamie Moyer was the odd man out. Most everybody seems to agree with that.
But it's funny. The expectations on Martinez seem so low that 3 earned runs in 5 innings is seen by most people as swell, even though 3 earned runs in 5 innings is just what Moyer was giving them, and just what saddled him with the worst ERA among qualified starting pitchers in the National League.
Pedro's ERA: 5.40.
Jamie's ERA: 5.47.
All of which means that Pedro has to be better or this makes no sense.
We should know in about 2 weeks, about two or three more starts. Because there were things to like about Martinez, particularly the fastball that had more life than expected. If he can sustain that, the Phillies might have something here -- and that is the biggest question. Martinez struggled a lot with his command on Wednesday night against the Cubs, but you have to think that has a decent chance of straightening itself out with more work.
The problem isn't the 3 earned runs -- it's the 5 innings. They need to get Martinez to a point where he can give them 6 innings consistently, 6 innings or more. The pattern in his brief Phillies career, in the minors and the majors, has been established. First time: four good innings, tired in the fifth and allows some runs. Next time: five good innings, tired in the sixth and allows some runs. Wednesday: four good innings, tired in the fifth and allows some runs.
The pattern needs to be broken, obviously. The good thing is that Martinez says he feels completely healthy -- and, again, that the fastball is starting in a good place. But if he cannot break the pattern, if he cannot get them through 6 innings in good order, there will need to be a decision made. Because it does need to be better than Wednesday night.
Jamie Moyer spoke his mind on Tuesday.
This is good.
Moyer said he was "disheartened" by the decision to yank him out of the Phillies' starting rotation. He said he had been "misled" during off-season contract negotiations with the club, when this kind of scenario was raised and he was assured he would not be banished to the bullpen. Moyer also said he would not be a distraction.
There are people who see all of this as inconsistent. I don't, not even a little bit.
I continue to be amazed by media people who ask questions for a living who are horrified when the answers are truthful. It's absurd. I ask people things and I want to know what they really think. I don't want robots. I don't want coach-speak. We have all spent such a large portion of our lives listening to athletes say nothing that, when somebody actually does say something, there are people who recoil.
Of course he's disheartened -- and there is nothing wrong with saying it.
If he feels he was misled, there is nothing wrong with saying that either. Because there are promises and there are promises and everybody knows it. The Phillies promised Chan Ho Park an honest competition in spring training for a spot in the rotation and they gave him the job because he won it. That's honorable. This is a little different because of Moyer's elevated earned-run average. At 5.47, it's about as bad as a starter can possibly have and remain a starter. And know this: at a certain point, everyone would agree -- hell, Moyer would agree -- that an exorbitant ERA would cancel any off-season conversation. So we are just talking about the definition of exorbitant.
One final thing: he will not be a distraction. Because making a single newspaper headline is not the same thing as dividing a clubhouse. Moyer won't do that -- he just won't. It isn't in his DNA and, frankly, it isn't within his power. Because while the man is universally respected, the numbers are the numbers, and 5.47 is 5.47, and everybody in the Phillies' clubhouse can see that.
The New York Times is doing great reporting on the business of performance-enhancing drugs in baseball, finding lawyers -- presumeably lawyers who are Yankees fans, given the latest -- willing to put themselves in contempt of court by revealing names on the list of 104 players who tested positive in 2003 as part of an anonymous (ha) program that was a precursor to the current testing scheme. Now we know that Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz were on the list. Stunned and amazed are we.
So the names dribble out now, every couple of months. How many are left? Sing it with me: "Ninety-eight bottles of pee on the wall, 98 bottles of pee..."
There are people -- you know, actual thinking people -- who now believe that the thing to do it just release the rest of the names and be done with it. This is wrong on about a million levels (and, at the very least, on 98). You design a program. You promise the players anonymity. You bless that promise with the sanctity of a labor-management agreement. Then the government seizes the list before it is destroyed, and then the union goes to court to try to get the list back. That is why certain lawyers have access to it -- because the case is now before a Federal appeals court in California, and the list is under seal there.
But, to solve a perceived public relations problem, the solution is to violate the pledge of anonymity to the players who have not yet been outed? Because you don't like the size of the type used in the headlines, you are going to throw away the last, tattered shred of integrity remaining in this process? Because lawyers are willing to potentially submit themselves to court sanctions, if caught, you are going to identify the overwhelming majority of players who have not been outed, players who were promised that this could never happen?
And it is only public relations. People who want the list released act as if this settles the matter and somehow allows baseball to wash its hands of its past. This is so intellectually dishonest as to be laughable. They caught about 100 players after they told them there would be testing. How many hundreds more stopped using whatever they were using when told what was coming? Nobody -- nobody -- believes that only 104 players were using -- but that is the predicate that people are proposing.
You cannot just make this go away. And based upon the reaction of the people in the seats, it isn't necessary. People get it -- they're not stupid. They have made their peace with this mess. They see it for what it was and they still love Big Papi.
I wanted Roy Halladay. You wanted Roy Halladay. Some people said they didn't care what it took to get him. But, well, come on. There had to be some limit, right?
Now it will be Cliff Lee and right-handed bat Ben Francisco, in exchange for Carlos Carrasco, Jason Knapp, Lou Marson and Jason Donald. Lee is not Halladay. Carrasco & Co. are not Kyle Drabek, Jay Happ and Dominic Brown. These are both true facts. The Phillies and their rookie GM, Ruben Amaro Jr., played this right.
Long-term, we all can agree that the Phils are in better shape than if they had traded Drabek and Brown as part of the package to get Halladay. That isn't to say that Carrasco won't be useful and that Knapp -- a big kid with a huge fastball -- won't end up being very, very good. This wasn't theft. The Phillies did give up four players who could very well end up being major-league contributors. But they kept their big pieces -- Drabek, Brown and Michael Taylor. Again, long-term, this is clearly a win.
Short-term -- ignoring Francisco, a need -- we can boil everything down to this question: which would you rather have in October, Halladay alone or the combination of Lee and Happ?
Let's take an opening-round series against San Francisco as one example. In Game 1, you would have Tim Lincecum against either Lee or Halladay. Neither would have a clear-cut advantage over the other. If each man pitched to expectations, the game likely would be decided in the bullpen -- Halladay or Lee, doesn't matter. Now, go to Game 4. In one case, if they trade for Halladay, it is Moyer/Martinez/Lopez vs. whatever able-bodied guy the Giants can find (remember, Randy Johnson is on the 60-day DL, scrambling everything). Again, you are likely looking at a game decided in the bullpen. In the other case, with the Lee trade, you still have Happ and you suddenly have a clear advantage in Game 4.
Again, if you want to argue that Lee isn't Halladay, that's fair. But the differences are incremental, not enormous. The fact that you get to keep Happ turns incremental into something even smaller, and maybe shrinks the difference to nothing. Again, that's in the short-term.
Now, if Halladay ends up in Boston, the conversation might change. But between then and now, Amaro played this exactly right.