Monday, July 6, 2015

The GOP Swings Low

A new poll in swing states, including PA, shows Obama besting Romney & Santorum.

The GOP Swings Low

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It looks like President Obama can thank Rush Limbaugh and Rick Santorum for boosting him in key swing states, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll released Wednesday.

Poll findings in Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida show the President leading Rick and Mitt Romney overall and leading among women by a range of 6 to 19 points in the three states, any two of which are regarded as critical to winning the presidency.

This is unquestionably a reaction to the recent focus by the right, especially Limbaugh and Santorum, on issues directly related to women such as reproductive health. The poll says most matchups among male voters are too close to call.

Perhaps more critically, the poll finds 6 in 10 voters in all three states believe the economy is improving and only about 1 in 6 blames Obama for the spike in gasoline prices.

As a result, the poll says if the election were today, the President carries at least two of the three key states.

Here are the overall results:

  • Florida:           Obama tops Romney 49 – 42 percent;

                             Obama beats Santorum 50 – 37 percent.

  • Ohio:           Obama over Romney 47 – 41 percent;

                             Obama leads Santorum 47 – 40 percent.

  • PA:              Obama edges Romney 45 – 42 percent;

                             Obama tops Santorum 48 – 41 percent.

Polls, of course, are merely snaphots of a moment and lots can happen between now and November. But these are the best numbers Obama's seen in these states so far this election cycle and suggest if the economy does not falter the President is well-positioned to win reelection.

Swing states are the ones to win; right now the GOP is swinging low.

The poll also surveyed voters on the job performance of their respective Republican governors, and guess what? Only Gov. Corbett's approval number is higher than his disapproval number.

In Florida, only 36 percent of voters approve of Gov. Rick Scott; 52 percent disapprove.

In Ohio, 42 percent approve of Gov. John Kasich; 42 percent disapprove.

And in Pennsylvania, 41 percent approve of Corbett; 38 disapprove.

(The PA findings are close to a Q-Poll result two weeks ago showing Corbett's number similar to Kasich's: 41-41.)

 

 

 

 

Daily News Political Columnist
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About this blog
John Baer has been covering politics and government for the Daily News since 1987. The National Journal in 2002 called Baer one of the country's top 10 political journalists outside Washington, saying Baer has, "the ability to take the skin off a politician without making it hurt too much." E-mail John at baerj@phillynews.com.

John is the author of the book "On The Front Lines of Pennsylvania Politics: Twenty-Five Years of Keystone Reporting" (The History Press, 2012). Reach John at baerj@phillynews.com.

John Baer Daily News Political Columnist
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