'Screwy' Polls?
New polls in the race for president show numbers that have some scratching their heads: what's going one here?
'Screwy' Polls?
John Baer, Daily News Political Columnist
Pennsylvania's favorite (or least favorite) political pundit, Ed Rendell, on Friday proclaimed new polls in the race for president to be "screwy."
Appearing, as he often does, on MSNBC's "Morning Joe," the former mayor/guv/Demcratic Party leader especially questioned new polling in Pennsylvania showing the contest here a toss-up.
The political Website realclearpolitics.com, in fact, recently moved the state from "leans Obama" to "toss up," and recent polling in the Keystone State shows Obama's lead has shrunk from seven or eight points to three or four points.
Rendell's case against this apparent Romney gain is based on Ed's assertion that if the race really was that close there'd be evidence of a Romney campaign presence contesting the Commonwealth. There isn't. No targetted TV ads. No Romney visits.
So is Rendell right? Or is he merely mouthing Democratic wishful thinking?
On the national scene, the poll that dropped everyone's jaw is Gallup's latest "daily tracking" showing Romney with a 7-point edge over Obama headed into the weekend before Monday night's final debate.
The Romney lead is by far his biggest advantage yet but the New York Daily News notes the poll was taken over seven days, including only one day of data since the second debate Tuesday night which generally was seen as a win for Obama or, at least, a draw.
Experts say any single poll can be off at any given time and that the best way to measure the race is through averaging multiple polls.
That's what realclearpolitics.com does and its results show the following in key states and nationally: Obama holds an average lead of 2.4% in Ohio; Romney up 2.5% in Florida; Obama up 2.8% in Wisconsin; Obama up just .8% in Virginia (a virtual tie); Romney up just .2% in Colorado (a virtual tie); and Romney ahead buy 1% in the national average (a virtual tie).
The numbers and dizzying and changing and maybe reflect an electorate that can be quickly moved in a race that some now say could end up unresolved on Election Day.
This volatility protects any pollsters whose numbers seem off, but there's little to protect the rest of us from the unprecedented onslaught of polls and how they might impact the outcome of the race.
Signs are everywhere in Montgomery County and are 5 to 1 for Romney when 4 years ago they were 5 to 1 for Obama. The enthusiasm to vote is palpable. Romney will win PA.— tr88- Why do people come on here and just make stuff up? Don't you have anything better to do with your miserable life?
— wokmaster - No - The polls are finally becoming more accurate so these pollsters can retain some credibility. They were oversampling democrats higher than even 2008 levels. NOW THIS is fake jobs number story is screwy:
Marty Morgenstern, the secretary of the California agency that substantially under-reported unemployment claims last week, contributed to President Barack Obama’s 2008 presidential election campaign, The Daily Caller has learned.
On Oct. 11, the federal government reported that weekly jobless claims were down significantly, suggesting a dramatic national increase in economic growth and a steep decline in layoffs. Jobless claims, according to the Labor Department, had fallen by 30,000 to 339,000, their lowest level since February 2008.
The good news for the Obama administration spread quickly, with outlets like CNN and Bloomberg declaring, “Jobless claims fall to four-year low.”
Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2012/10/18/calif-official-whose-agency-under-reported-unemployment-stats-was-obama-campaign-donor/#ixzz29lO56PkH— Mr. Underhill - all this yet Obama has a 69% of winning....lmao....all u poll watchers are too funny.— Argos
- i am another independent voter , i voted for Obama in 08. Obama has to go. liar liar pants on fire— bigguy1
- Oh yeah, please Obama's a liar?????? Then what is Mitt?????— Jimmychit
- Chris Stevens
Remember him?
How sad the topic is about poll numbers and not who was accountable for his lack of protection (which he asked for) resulting in his death?— FocusTruthFully - Stop trying to make hay out of a national tragedy. It's disgusting. If I'd have said that after 9/11 you'd have called me a terrorist!
- This poll is credible because about 20 other states are trending for Romney too over the past 3 weeks. Wake up and smell the coffee.— Phillies2008WSChamps
- Kilgore-
Go read the reports, Mr. Stevens did ask for increased protection.
Why was it ignored?
Yes, it was terrorism caused by Al Quida which is increasing.
Attacking 12 American Embassies in the Middle East.— FocusTruthFully - He never asked the White House. Congress holds the purse strings and decides state department funding. New reports out in the last couple of days have stated that this probably was a spontaneous attack in retaliation for the movie trailer anyway, just like the White House said their sources told them. This is another red hearing aimed at the president's foreign policy credentials right before an election, and that's what makes it disgusting.
- post— FocusTruthFully
John is the author of the book "On The Front Lines of Pennsylvania Politics: Twenty-Five Years of Keystone Reporting" (The History Press, 2012). Reach John at baerj@phillynews.com.
