Romney in PA -- Or No?
Is the Romney campaign competing in PA or not? It seems Ohio is more important, but GOPers say the Keystone State remains in play.
Romney in PA -- Or No?
John Baer, Daily News Political Columnist
Conflicting press releases from Democrats and Republicans (a real rarity there, eh?) suggest that Mitt Romney's campaign is either folding in Pennsylvania or getting ready to double-down.
Tuesday morning, the state GOP issued a statement, "Romney Seizes Momentum in PA," that cites new polling numbers showing President Obama with a slim 3-point lead and points to a National Journal piece asking if Pennsylvania is "the newest battleground state."
Within an hour of that statement, Pennsylvania Democrats issued a statement, "Romney closing shop in PA," that cites reports that some of the Republican contender's forces are being moved from Pennsylvania to Ohio.
Meanwhile, veteran political journalist Jim O'Toole of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports that two new polls show Romney close to Obama here but notes that neither campaign is currently airing ads in Pennsylvania (what you're seeing are national ads) while Ohio markets such as Cleveland, Toledo, Columbus and Cincinnati were among the campaigns' top 15 ad-buy areas for the month of September.
The Wesbite realclearpolitics.com still has Pennsylvania "leaning Obama" while Ohio is listed as a toss-up state.
But if the post-debate polling swings here, in other states and nationally teach us anything it is that the race is more volatile that many believed, which suggests there's still time for movement on both sides.
Pennsylvania, structurally, remains a tough get for Romney; and the state's history of going blue in every presidential election since 1988 might well be repeated.
But the tightening of the contest here following Mitt's mauling of Obama in the first debate is clear evidence of how fast a fall can happen anywhere -- whether one candidate is really in any state or not.
The problem for Obama is the fact that the state has changed. Bush nearly won here in 2004 and the huge surge of turnout in Philly won the state in 2008. But 2012 is not 2008. There has been a real drop of urban voters (70% democrat) across the state, a huge 600,000 decrease in registered Dems by mid Sept., and the new voting reform law. Only the photo ID part is blocked. The bulk of the law was found constitutional and is in full force. It includes increased security, the end of the Philly Dems' "wall of muscle", detailed state regulations for provisional ballots, and mandatory purging of the dead, incarcerated, illegal, and non-resident voters from the rolls. Couple that with the debate results.
The newest Siena poll shows it a 2 point race, 43-41 for Obama. However, 12 percent say they are undecided and the closer it is to the election, the more likely they will break for Romney. It should really worry Dems that Obama is at 43 as President. This is also the first poll that is applying a methodology based on the new voter reform and current registration splits. Obama has never been above 50% even with 2008 slants and to win he must be at 50.1%. This also parallels the new polling for Casey which shows his numbers collapsing.— Dutch-wayne- Baer:
Romney saying one thing and doing another should not surprise you.
Do we believe that he will not give tax breaks to millionaires?
Do you believe that he has suddenly become pro-choice?
No. He still has supporter of "legitimate rape" Ryan in his team.— Seed - Seed, what are you again? A lifetime welfare recipient or a state/municipal worker in the union? Either way I certainly understand your passion for Obama, when you can't stand on your own like a man you need Obama to win so your entitlement continues. — Gray Areas
Comment removed.- Then you sir are very foolish with your money. Entitlements are paid with tax revenue. You as a taxpayer(so you say) can claim more of your hard earned money for yourself. At that time you have the freedom to donate that savings to the folks who've lost that entitlement if you wish. You gain the freedom to dole out donations as you see fit, don't know how anybody can argue with that. Don't confuse your "hatred" for conservatives with fiscal common sense. And your "hatred" for such a large and undefined group really hints at a mental deficiency or illness(not joking and I feel compassion for you) which would also explain your 30+ rants in these comment columns daily. — Gray Areas
- you vote to preserve the government you need. republicans will cut off our nose to spite our face. reckless. i will need social security and medicare when older and i vote to make sure it's there. i've paid in for close to 30 years and i've depended on it being there.
now please pile on and tell us how money is the only pursuit in life.
we need to go communist, cause these plutocrats will never stop. it feels like we're living in 1930 but you are all too stupid to realize it. americans are so self destructive they are destroy everything while really only ever worrying about who wins american idol. - also you ain't paying any more in taxes unless you yourself alone make over $250,000. a year.
quarter of a million a year need to pay more because we all know they aren't paying their workers a fair amount for their contribution to the companies success.
now you guys are telling people to vote for romney or be fired. just move to indonesia already and leave america to us. - Comment removed.
- Dutch-Wayne must be one of those Clinton thinks needs some arithmetic training and also could use a lesson on reading law, amendments and registration.
RE: "the huge surge of turnout in Philly won the state in 2008."
FACT: The Obama margin of victory in PA in 2008 was 620,478. Obama margin in 2008 in Philly was 478,759. Even if you tossed out every single Obama vote in Philly he would have still won PA.
RE: "The bulk of the law was found constitutional and is in full force. It includes increased security, the end of the Philly Dems' "wall of muscle", detailed state regulations for provisional ballots, and mandatory purging of the dead, incarcerated, illegal, and non-resident voters from the rolls.
FACT: All of the above election requirements were already law before the Voter-ID "amendment" and all of the above requirements were in effect in the 2008 election - if fact many in effect since 1995.
.— ElecFact - If turnout means anything, Romney has a real chance. every republican I know will be voting 2 or 3 times for him now that we dont need id.— tr88
- Republicans supported a black guy before they supported Romney.
That should be enough indicator of how much they hate him. Don't fake your love for the two-faced lier— Seed - Seed, you're gonna need water.— bearsfriend
- romney 2012.... enough said. lets put maturity and intelligence in the whitehouse, it's been awhile— FBO4ever
- Come down off of bullish-t mountain. We already have the more intelligent and mature person in the White House. Enjoy your little bounce because it won't last long.
- I agree with Sharky, if the truth challenged billionaire & the Ayn Rand groupie win there'll be a depression for sure..— ClarkU
- He doesn't have to come here to get my vote.— jasjfarrell
- Rommney is a flip flopping machine voters wont fall for it. He will say anything for a vote.— kevinhjr
- I am a republican that does not like Romney as a person. He comes across as an arrogant jerk. That said, I will ABSOLUTELY vote for him. Dems will just criticize him as a person then when you ask why they won't vote for him, they think he is a liar. bo is a great speaker, but hasn't done anything in office that he said would get done, nor is it going anywhere. People say republican party is for the rich and romney is a cheater for putting money elsewhere.....Sign me up, I am all for business promotion and getting some money so I don't live paycheck to paycheck. The reason there are less urban voters are because their situation has gotten even worse under bo.— kozykoz26
- he is going to end social security and medicare, you fool. wake up. this is the most important election of our lifetime.
- The real response is not Romney yes or no, but the answer is No-OBummer, we all have had enough of his socialist Saul Alinsky agenda.— Speak-truth-2-power
- do republicans think mitt's strategy of continuous lying is a good strategy to win the white house?
- Ohioans say obama's gonna win ohio. pennsylvania is going for obama- philadelphia and pittsburgh, people. new hampshire's going for obama. congratulations mr. president on your reelection.
John is the author of the book "On The Front Lines of Pennsylvania Politics: Twenty-Five Years of Keystone Reporting" (The History Press, 2012). Reach John at baerj@phillynews.com.
