Conventional Wisdom
The presidential race might seem over for some, but it ain't over by a long shot. It's a race of wait and see.
Conventional Wisdom
John Baer, Daily News Political Columnist
Conventional wisdom says the national party conventions did little to alter the landscape of this year’s election; and that appears to be the case.
Mostly what we learned from Tampa and Charlotte was that Clint Eastwood is capable of stealing a show and Barack Obama remains capable of delivering a speech.
Most recent polls show a slight bump for the president.
Rasmussen and Gallup tracking polls, for example, say Obama’s now up 4 or 5 points.
But the realclearpolitics.com Website shows the average of recent polling has the president up less than 2 points.
Point is we’re still looking at a tight contest.
And we could be for a long time, meaning even after Election Day.
Pending court rulings, including in Pennsylvania, on new voter ID laws could and appeals to existing and future rulings in key states could lead to post-election litigation.
The New York Times on Monday notes that voting requirement changes in Ohio and Florida, for example, could – even if settled before the election – end up in appeals that could delay the final election outcome in a close race.
Just what the divided nation needs, eh?
Meanwhile, the first of three scheduled debates is only three weeks away. That takes place in Denver Oct. 3 on domestic policy and is to be moderated by Jim Lehrer of PBS.
I know lots of Democrats believe that Obama’s convention speech showed the nation he deserves a second term, and lots more believe that the first the debate will seal the deal.
And maybe that’s right.
But the national attention span is short and easily turned by momentary events large and small. Any x-factor related to the economy or the Afghan war or who knows what can change the game.
Anyone who says Obama cannot be reelected and/or anyone who claims Romney can’t win election is expressing more personal wishful thinking than any kind of wisdom.
This was and remains a race reliant on, you know, wait and see.
RCP 2 point average lead for Obama probably includes pre DNC data.
When Russmusaen has to show a 4-5 point lead for Obama that speaks volume. Russmussen even tried to establish that Romney got a convention boost that no one else saw.— Seed- Romney's whole campaign is supported on welfare lie, medicare lie, Bain job creation fiction, and MA Romney care.
I don't know how he can win a debate where his lies can be immediately refuted by the other party. Newt was wrong when he screwed his wife/mistress. But he is right when he says Romney can't win a debate.— Seed - One way for Romney to close the gap is to keep showing the complete Democrat National Convention, non-stop, on a big screen, in thousands of malls around the country.— penllynjohn
- Oh, and while the Republicans run the whole Democrat Convention, they should have a running National Debt current calculation screen right above the Democrats on display.— penllynjohn
- The America we know is fading from our eyes.
The nations credit rating is facing another drop.
The tensions between Iran and the access to oil trade is narrowing.
The gas prices continue to rise nearing the $5.00 a gal. mark.
The country is still overwhelming unemployed.
Many have lost their homes because of job losses.
Many will have to choose between food or heat this winter.
Have we all been lulled to sleep by Obama's sing song?
Seriously people, look around you and see the devastation.
How many vacant homes are on your block where you live??— FocusTruthFully
John is the author of the book "On The Front Lines of Pennsylvania Politics: Twenty-Five Years of Keystone Reporting" (The History Press, 2012). Reach John at baerj@phillynews.com.
