Why home ice means nothing
PITTSBURGH -- Across the Commonwealth, Danny Briere was stuffed on his shootout attempt on Saturday afternoon at the Wells Fargo Center in the Flyers’ one last attempt to salvage an extra point in preparation for Sunday’s battle with the Penguins.
Why home ice means nothing
PITTSBURGH -- Across the Commonwealth, Danny Briere was stuffed on his shootout attempt on Saturday afternoon at the Wells Fargo Center in the Flyers’ one last attempt to salvage an extra point in preparation for Sunday’s battle with the Penguins.
It seemed like an awfully big point, one that would have given the Flyers a chance to overtake Pittsburgh for 4th place in the East.
Or, was it?
Since the Flyers fell in the shootout, they will now leave the Consol Energy Center on Sunday in 5th place in the Eastern Conference - regardless of the result.
The Flyers, stuck with 99 points, could have topped Pittsburgh in the standings this weekend since they hold both of the first two tiebreakers against Pittsburgh, which are regulation plus overtime wins (41) and head-to-head record (3-1-0).
After Saturday’s game:
4. Pittsburgh: 4 GR, 102 points
5. Philadelphia: 4 GR, 99 points
For weeks, the stories have been repeatedly written about the Flyers trying to catch the Penguins and Rangers in the race to Game No. 82.
Other than the matchup, which Briere was saying on Thursday in Toronto that it would be foolish to pick either way, the seedings mean little. There is less than a 5 percent chance the Flyers play anyone other than the Penguins in the first round, according to PlayoffStatus.com.
So, inevitably, the focus has been on a push for home-ice advantage in the first round, a seemingly pivotal part of any playoff series.
"Everyone has been scoreboard watching and looking at the standings every night," Wayne Simmonds said. "You want to get home rink advantage. That's the key. We want to play in front of our fans, obviously. Especially playoff time, fans can make the difference - it's like having an extra player on the ice. It's huge."
Sadly, no “advantage” actually exists. It's all perceived. In fact, a home-ice “advantage” is one of the most over-written and unsubstantiated cliches in pro sports today. And the statistics back that up.
Maybe that's the reason Peter Laviolette said he hasn't made it a topic in his meetings with the team.
Since the 2004-05 lockout, there have been 90 series played to determine the 6 Stanley Cup victors. Teams separated by 10 or fewer points in the regular season standings have met 53 times.
The team with home-ice “advantage” is just 27-26 (.509) in those series.
Even when home-ice is really supposed to matter, in a Game 7, the home team is just 12-12 (.500) in those Game 7’s.
Since 2006, the Flyers have started a series on the road 8 times. They are 4-4 in those rounds.
Granted, this trend - of the road team having a nearly equal chance - isn’t the norm throughout the course of NHL history. The NHL first began playing best-of-seven series in 1939. The lower-seeded team is just 194-358 (.351). In all professional sports, the team starting a best-of-seven series on the road has .324 (363-758) win percentage.
And it's not even true in all sports. For instance, as one astute reader pointed out, only 5 teams in the NBA have a winning road record during the regular season. There are 14 winning road teams in the NHL this year.
All-time, the statistics represent the historical data: The Flyers are 9-15 (.375) in series that start on the road and the Penguins are 17-8 (.680) in series that start at home. To flip-flop it, the Flyers are 27-13 (.675) in a series when Game 1 is at home and the Penguins are 9-9 (.500) starting on the road.
But 6 years worth of playoff series since the NHL became a league full of parity is a large enough sample size to see the new trend.
In my opinion, there is something to starting on the road. In a 2-2-1-1-1 travel setup, the road team is fighting to win home-ice back. The home team is battling through the first two games just to keep it. Plus, there is considerably less pressure starting in an opponent’s building.
And the Flyers’ recent history also lends itself to starting on the road - especially against Pittsburgh. With two regular season games left there, they are unbeaten (4-0-0) in their only games played at Consol Energy Center, since they skated in the building's first-ever game on Oct. 7, 2010.
Pittsburgh was 11-3 against the Flyers at Mellon Arena to close it out, which is left to nothing more than a pile of rubble across the street now.
In fact, the Flyers’ overall road record this season (24-12-3), which has them tied with Vancouver for road wins, might even suggest they are better prepared to start in Pittsburgh.
So, armed with all of those statistics, the Flyers would be better served by focusing first on getting healthy and then heading into the playoffs with a head of stream, rather than catching the Penguins. Then again, if they play well enough, one would seem to take care of the other.
For the latest updates, follow Frank Seravalli on Twitter: @DNFlyers
Road ice advantage is key, especially for this team this year.— Brian F.- Now that the Flyers are almost locked into the 5 spot home ice advantage doesnt mean anything( thats laughable) ?? Just 2 weeks ago they were talking about overcoming the Rangers and getting the 1 seed. In spite of the numbers every team would rather start at home and play game 7 at home. Win the final 4 and we get home ice and momentum— flyers1000
- I don't buy that home ice means nothing, but if we are matched up against the Pens I actually think there is a valid case for not needing/wanting home ice. The Flyers haven't lost in the Pens new building so far. There are still 2 games left against the Pens for that trend to change, but overall it's a good indication that the Flyers can win in Pittsburgh— DrM
- Baloney. 2009 Flyers fumble away home ice in the last game of the season. Have to go to Pitt instead of hosting. Fall behind early, try to came back before a game 6 meltdown. Flyers one and done. Pens go on to win the cup. Short memories people!!!— TongueWagger
- Frank, you are an idiot. IF the two teams are otherwise evenly matched, then yes, playing 4 games of a 7 game series in your home rink is an advtantage, u dont need pseudo-science to prove it. HOWEVER, if one team is clearly dominant, they home ice has such a minimal impact that its not noticeable. Based on the way the playoffs set up, with the division winners getting the top 3 seeds, its inevitable that sometimes you are going to have a better team with a lower seed, and thus no home-ice advantage, and usually the better team wins. DUHRRR. Home ice is not the major determining factor. but it is certainly A factor, and when two teams are evenly matched, it can be a more important factor. Such as w/ the Pens and Flyers.
btw, if the Flyers had won today, Frank would be writing about how crucial the win was because it keeps our home ice hopes alive... lol.— KingOfPhilly - This article is nonsense. Ask any handicapper if they would change the line on a hockey game based on where the game is played. All would say yes.— kilo_005
- NHL home ice advantage is around 56%, so the chance of a 56% event occurring 12 times or fewer out of 24 is about 35%, i.e. the chance of the home team only winning 12 of 24 game sevens. In other words, the sample size is not nearly large enough to say with any degree of confidence that home ice doesn't matter.— GeorgeMahaven
- By 56%, I mean the home team wins 56% of the games, away team wins 44%. — GeorgeMahaven
- Personally, I'd rather this team stay in the 5 spot. There are no expectations and the pressure to win it all is less than if they had home ice advantage or the #1 spot. Quite frankly I'm sure a lot of us are surprised at how well this team has done considering it was blown up and rebuilt 9 months ago. I have no expectations for these playoffs other than play your heart out. Go Flyers!— Fly Guy
Why Home Ice Means Nothing states the article- I'll take the additional few % for home ice any day! So the article is saying home ice statistically wins playoffs. Sounds like Everything to me.— Jiggs700- Flyers need to worry more about their goaltending in the playoffs (when it matters), considering the Pens score more and allow less. And yes, home ice may not be the end-all-be-all, but it will have somewhat of an affect. Oh, and Mr. Giroux might want to realize that his SO "attempt" today was one of the most pathetic excuses I've ever seen. If he wants to be considered one of the best in the league, he needs to take them more seriously.— aisaac
- cmon we can still lose enough that we can fall to 6th and realy win by playing florida so lets lose flyers— flyinnhigh
When the Flyers get home ice advantage , Ed "living in the 70's" Snider gets more revenue from over priced tickets, parking and concessions. The fans also get to see film clips from 38 years ago of Bobby Clarke skating the Cup around the Spectrum. Naturally prior to the start of the game, "God Bless America" will be trotted out as a good luck charm.— HappyBob- The real issue is that NBC is going to schedule a bunch of afternoon games because they think everybody wants to tune in to watch Sidney Crosby. There will be at least 2 afternoon games during the series.— AreaMan
- i dont care about stats. you always want home ice if you can get it. go flyers!!!— phillysportsnut
