What if? Playoff scenarios
What if the Flyers continue their collapse? What happens?
What if? Playoff scenarios
What if?
I mean, what are the chances the Flyers – whose wheels are already falling off – continue to collapse and don’t make the postseason?
Before last weekend, with 12 games to play, the Flyers held a nine point edge on a playoff spot as they were seated in fifth place in the Eastern Conference.
They have now lost three straight games and five of their last six.
Now, with nine games left, the Flyers’ chances to miss the playoffs have almost doubled with Tuesday night’s ugly shutout loss in Ottawa.
They are still in sixth place – tied with seventh place Montreal – and have a scant four point cushion on ninth place. The Flyers are just one point up on eighth place Boston, a team who has a game in-hand over them.
Look at the schedule. It’s not exactly a rosy picture.
Besides their own playoff aspirations, only two of their final eight opponents are mathematically eliminated from the postseason. The Rangers (71 points, 7 points out) could soon make that three.
The Flyers’ maximum number of points attainable is 97. N would give them a 46-31-5 record.
According to PlayoffStatus.com, the Flyers need four wins in their final nine games to all but guarantee them a playoff spot. That makes 87 points the magic number. Five wins (89 points) would make things a lot more comfortable.
Unlike last year, when 93 points were needed to attain eighth place, the teams in the jam-packed East have taken potential points away from each other.
Here’s the statistical breakdown:
0 wins in final 9 games: 99% chance to be eliminated
1 win in final 9 games: 87% chance to be eliminated
2 wins in final 9 games: 47% chance to be eliminated
3 wins in final 9 games: 12% chance to be eliminated
4 wins in final 9 games: 1% chance to be eliminated
5 wins in final 9 games: <1% to be eliminated
I’d bet that four wins in the final nine games are attainable (let’s say: Islanders, Maple Leafs, one of the two against the Rangers and one of the other five teams). That would likely give the Flyers a seventh place finish (and their division winner, likely Pittsburgh) in the first round.
The goal is always as many wins as possible. But the Flyers should be realistically shooting for at least 5 wins, which would likely land them a sixth place finish and the Northeast division winner – probably Buffalo.
It would take six or more wins to get to fifth place. That’s not going to be easy.
Then again, nothing is easy at this point in the season. Not for this team.
They aren't getting into the playoffs. Look at the effort from the last three games. Poor. No heart. Either they don't care or they have tuned out the coach and captain.— MH- Good analysis - definitely pulling for the #6 seed!— JesseH
- they'll get in.— seaonasdad
- They'll get in and get bounced in 6 games in the first round.— rochaa3
- @ rochaa3 - totally agree...one and done.— NinaNoodle
- They'll get in.....but will it matter? Right now it sure doesn't look like it will. Hope they turn it around.— madnvocal
- I think in these last couple weeks it is very important that the wins that get them in come just before the playoffs. Their current win-lose effort is the worst. If they win 3-4 games going into the playoffs they have some momentum and makes them dangerous to any team they face. If they go in flat like last year then I am afraid we'll be pulling our golf clubs out early. Anyway you look at the stats they are just numbers - in the end the players just have to play better.— ferg_1977
- i hope they get the Pens...maybe that will wake them up and inspire them not to be eliminated once again. Note to Dan Carcillo: don't pick a fight with a wimpy player when your team is up by a few goals.— horhey
- Whatever happens, please get rid of Hartnell.. by any means possible! He can't skate, can't stick-handle and can't pass. And the Carcillo project needs to end - back to the 3rd or 4th line.. PLEASE!— Big Game
- They have no heart because they are a roster full of overpaid average players. In addition, we are stuck with this roster for a while because of the short-sighted no trade clause contracts given to those average players. Briere and Hartnell are stealing money from the Flyers and they have full no-trade clauses. Also, speaking of no heart, why did Gagne have to fight after he was thrown into the boards? I agree that you need to play disciplined hockey, but somebody needed to step-up. It sends a message to the other teams that this team has already quit.— Bubby Q
- If they get Wash or Pitt in the first round they have no chance of winning a series. They have taken care of NJ this year and can beat Buffalo and a series win would give them momentum. I love Carcillo, not a 1st line player but he has been great this season in drawing penalties and not taking dumb ones. Sucks that 1/5 of the cap is tied up on Brier and Hartnell and we are stuck with them for 6 more years and 4 more years. So get used to guys like Carcillo on the first 2 lines! I wish they could release players like in the NFL— kingback
- Their best matchup would be the Debs or Sens, no doubt. Both are deeply flawed teams. Without Emery, it would be tough but far from impossible to beat them. Can't see them taking more than a game or two from Ryan Miller, or the Pens, even though they aren't as good a last year, and certainly not the caps.— eagle1971
- they are not making the playoffs. this is what happens when you refuse to go out and get a top of the line goaltender. that's been these teams problems for years.— robrago40
- Let me tell you all a little secret...the Sickers, Eagles and now the Flyers suck! All 3 of these teams need a major makeover!— tralala
- They lost their best goal scorer and goalie for the rest of the season. Hello! Hello!— Bubba100
