Posted: Friday, January 22, 2010, 1:45 PM | 17 comments |
 

Playoffs: Statistically Speaking
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On the heels of a well-played, 2-0 win over the New York Rangers on Thursday night – which brought the Flyers just two points out of 6th place in the Eastern Conference – let’s take a look at the playoff picture.

According to PlayoffStatus.com, the Flyers have a 69% chance of making the playoffs this season: (Whether or not they should be in this position is another discussion for another time).

Note: All unplayed games (for the rest of the season) are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

The Flyers, currently last in the Atlantic division, have less than a 1% chance of winning the division.

But here’s the breakdown for the rest of the spots:

8% chance to grab 4th place
18% chance for 5th place
17% chance for 6th place
14% chance for 7th place
12% chance for 8th place

That leaves a 31% shot to not make the playoffs. Sounds high, doesn't it? That number tells you how much that 3-13-1 spell hurt the Flyers this season.

In all honesty, beyond 4th place – which gives you home-ice advantage in the first round – it doesn’t much matter where you finish. It matters more how you’re playing when you get there.

Interestingly, the Rangers and Islanders - who are ahead of the Flyers now - have a much better shot to miss the playoffs entirely. The Islanders (who sneakily have the 2nd most amount of points since Dec. 23) have a 56% chance of missing and the Rangers have a 53% shot.

The Flyers have 33 games remaining on their schedule. PlayoffStatus gives probabilities for spots based on what percentage of the remaining games they win:

If they win 18 of 33, they have a 40% chance of picking up 6th place.

IF – and this is a big IF – the Flyers win 71% of their games down the stretch (as they have since Dec. 23), the Flyers would have a 51% chance at 4th place and 44% shot at 5th place. That's something to shoot for.

Still, as it stands now, the Flyers have just a 25% chance of making it to the 2nd round of the playoffs.

That could change pretty quickly if they keep rolling at this rate.

Slap shots
Danny Briere did not take part in practice on Friday at the Flyers Skate Zone. He also did not skate on Wednesday ... Peter Laviolette named Ray Emery as his starter tomorrow, though Michael Leighton - in an interview prior to Laviolette's - said that he was "excited" to play against Carolina.
Posted by Frank Seravalli @ 1:45 PM  Permalink | 17 comments
17
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  • Comment removed.
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 3:16 PM, 01/22/2010
    yeah...and if the queen had balls she'd be king....nice article...but I'll just take it one gm at a time
    — LongtimeFan3
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 3:25 PM, 01/22/2010
    This is one year in the NHL where a 5- 8 seed is at a big disadvantage. (Capitals, Devils, Penguins draw in the 1st rd.)
    — bobbyd24
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 4:00 PM, 01/22/2010
    I guarentee you neither the Caps,Devils or Penguina wanna face the flyers in the first round.. They may beat the flyers but they'll come out limping and no on ewants to limp out of the first round.. IE 2 years ago when the Pens gave up wins at the end so they didn't have to play the flyers in the first round. And it worked they gotta team that was tiring, and without Timmonin, and then Coburn.
    — jamurf
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 4:39 PM, 01/22/2010
    Or if my aunt had balls she'd be my uncle. Either way.
    — samtheshampharaoh
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 4:41 PM, 01/22/2010
    I'm the Flyers #1 fan, but I don't think they have much of a shot against the Caps, Devils or Penguins in the playoffs.
    — neddyflanders
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 4:48 PM, 01/22/2010
    neddyflanders...then you are clearly not the Flyers #1 fan.
    — snipesmorris
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 4:54 PM, 01/22/2010
    Shoot for the 6 seed...the 4/5 matchup is just a battle to the death...go for the weakest of the division winners (buffalo or boston).
    — SuPrimeau
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 4:58 PM, 01/22/2010
    Why is Briere not practicing?
    — ORANGEBLACKGREENRED
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 4:59 PM, 01/22/2010
    Why would the Penguins not want to play the Flyers in the playoffs? The past two seasons the Pens have totally dominated the Flyers in the playoffs. Last year the Flyers had to play their best game of the year just to force it to 6 games, and then blew that game. And Marty Brodeur is possibly playing the best hockey he has played in 5 years. So the Devils will either go down in the first round or make it to the Finals. It does not matter who the Flyers face in the playoffs, they are their own worst enemy. They fail to play hard every game for 60 minutes. Leighton deserves to start, but the Flyers need to see what they have in Emery.
    — AreaMan
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 6:54 PM, 01/22/2010
    Neither goalie can win us a cup unless we score 4 goals a game, not happening... Briere not playing bc he is a wimp and beyond overrated. Trade him if he would accept it
    — fman727
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 7:04 PM, 01/22/2010
    100% chance the Flyers lose again in the first round.
    — jibberjabber
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 7:05 PM, 01/22/2010
    Nine teams battling for the bottom four spots. Flyers are one of them. I like their chances.
    — FlyerX
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 7:50 PM, 01/22/2010
    Could it be the Caps year? Regardless of this season..... good to see the Flyers lose the losing streak, implement a new system, and get an attitude adjustment. Was hoping for a bigger push last year, did not like what I saw. I feel more encouraged now than the last game of the season last season (that miserable loss to the Rangers)
    — road515
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 8:14 PM, 01/22/2010
    How can you put odds on the NHL playoffs now? The hottest team in April is always the one you dont wanna play. Can you tell who is going to be that "hot" team, you cant. This is a crock.
    — bigphillydad


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About Frank Seravalli
Frank Seravalli is in his fourth year with the Daily News and third season covering the Flyers. He started at the Daily News as an intern writing about the boozing legends of the Lincoln Financial Field lots and hasn't left. Since joining the Flyers beat, he has covered everything from the Winter Classic to the Stanley Cup Final and everything in between. Prior to joining the Daily News, the Bucks County native did a large amount of freelance work for local media outlets, covering high schools, colleges and all four of Philly's major sports teams. He resides in Center City. E-mail Frank at seravaf@phillynews.com and follow him on Twitter @DNFlyers.

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