Playoff Probabilities
Statistically speaking, here are the Flyers' playoff probabilities over the final 20 games.
Playoff Probabilities
BUFFALO – Last time we checked in on the Flyers’ chances of making the playoffs – back on Jan. 22 – the Flyers had just a 69-percent chance of making the playoffs according to PlayoffStatus.com.
Thanks to an 8-5 record since then, but more likely the 18-8-1 run they’ve been on in their last 27 games, the Flyers check in today with a 94-percent shot to make the playoffs.
That sounds pretty good. PlayoffStatus.com uses probabilities that all future games are assumed won/lost based on relative team strengths and records.
Here’s the breakdown:
5% chance for 4th place (and home ice in the 1st round)
27% chance for 5th place
40% chance for 6th place
14% chance for 7th place
7% chance for 8th place
6% chance to not make the playoffs
For the record, the Flyers have a less than 1% chance to win the Atlantic division. We think it may be slimmer than that.
With a win tonight in Buffalo, the Flyers will be just 4 points back of the Sabres for the 5th spot in the Eastern Conference. Interestingly, PlayoffStatus.com says the Flyers have a 34-percent chance for 5th with a win and a 22-percent chance with a loss.
Buffalo would likely need to win the Northeast division and the Flyers to finish sixth for these two teams to play each other in the first round.
Here is the best setup for what the Flyers’ need to do over their final 20 games in order to finish in specific spots.
Once in the playoffs – again, based on games won/lost so far – the Flyers have just a 34-percent chance of making it to the 2nd round… which doesn’t bode well for a team whose ultimate goal is the Stanley Cup.
Stay tuned. There is a lot of hockey left to be played. We'll know a lot more another week from now.
For the latest updates, follow Frank Seravalli on Twitter at http://twitter.com/DNFlyers.
With the chemistry of Wash and Pitts up in the air after their trades, now is the ONLY time to seize these victories and play every shift like it's the last. If the leaders on this team, Richards, don't do it every night they will never be ready for playoff hockey. If and when the trades work well for Wash and Pitts, they are going to be monsters to stop and the Flyers will need to have been playing a top level for weeks to beat them. If we can roll into the playoffs playing very well, then the games are anyone's to win. But if they keep slumping up and down like they did against Florida and Tampa, forget it.— MichaelZoe- If it is March, you are worried about who the Flyers might play in the first round of the playoffs, that is a pretty good sign that this is not the year the Flyers win the Cup. Going into the playoffs, the Flyers and fans should feel that they can beat any team in the East. I really don't have that feeling. I feel another first round loss coming against some team near Lake Ontario.— AreaMan
- SP94 is right on, Flyers need to be gunning for the 6 spot. A Buffalo/Ottawa matchup in the first round is ideal, and then you hope for the best in Round 2. Teams with easy Round 1 matchups set themselves up for long playoff runs. Really the only 2 teams the Flyers should lose to are Pitt and Wash, so the ideal situation is to play them in Round 3 and hope injuries play a part and they have luck on their side.— sla6yer
- and the Flyers have a 0% chance of winning a cup this year...— JZan
- the 4-5 matchup is usually brutal and both teams just whallop eachother...i wouldnt be upset if they got the devils with the 4-5 matchup or the sens with the 3-6...— SuPrimeau
- Bring on the Sens! They are in a tailspin— TommyGun
- Flyer stink— Anthony77
- Flyers stink— Anthony77
- I have 58% of my hair left.— Big Game
- sla6yer - i agree, but if they finish with the 6th seed they will have to play the #1 (Washington) or #2 (Pitts or NJ) in the 2nd round unless BOTH of them get upset in the first round (in which case they would play the #7 seed in the 2nd rouond, but that's about as unlikely as Ecuador winning the Olymip tourney in 2014).— JesseH
- The key to winning the Cup is playing well(getting hot), not who you do or don't play in the first round.— shadesofdeath
- Had we kept Cliff Lee and I would not care about this.— Skena
- anyone but Pitt! we could take the sabres, and maybe the devils knock out the pens...no chance we beat pittsburg i hate to say it and i hate cissy crosby but until this team gets a shutdown goalie and a player who can score at will (caps have ovie and semin, pens have malkin and staal, we dont even have 1), we'll be stuck with naeuseating first or second round exists. prongs doesn't change that— Stanley Cup
- Playoffstatus.com is a joke I don't know why frank is using that. That website does not account for Overtime losses. It states that the flyers have a 60% chance of winning 13 of their last 20 games which very well could happen in which they would finish with 95 points. The problem with that is since it doesn't account for overtime losses it's possible they could win 13 out of their last 20 and also lose a few of those 7 in overtime accounting for say 4 points in 4 overtime losses which would give them 99 points. That could be the difference between home ice at 4th or even a divisioni title.— southpaw26
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