Monday, March 2, 2015

Behind the Numbers (Draft Edition)

Yesterday, I posted on my Fantasy Island Football League draft, which took place on Tuesday night.

Behind the Numbers (Draft Edition)

Saints quarterback Drew Brees. (AP Photo/Michael Dwyer)
Saints quarterback Drew Brees. (AP Photo/Michael Dwyer)

Yesterday, I posted on my Fantasy Island Football League draft, which took place on Tuesday night.

Today, I decided to take a look at some of the numbers behind the numbers of my two fantasy drafts this week. One league has 14 teams and the other has 12, so that will skew the results slightly, but the effect is the same.

Each draft is unique, but there are some themes that run consistent throughout. One of those things is where players are taken from. What team's players are the most popular? How does that correlate to a team's success?

It shouldn't surprise you that the teams with the most players were the Packers, Saints, Eagles, and Patriots. However there are plenty of shocking numbers, such as this: The Chargers and the LIONS had the same number of players taken.

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Take a look for yourself...

Players taken, including kickers and defense, by team/division/conference:

  Philly.com*     Fantasy Island

26 (12.4%)

9 (4.3%)
7 (3.3%)
5 (2.4%)
5 (2.4%)

NFC East

Eagles
Cowboys
Giants
Redskins

22 (13.1%)

8 (4.8%)
4 (2.4%)
6 (3.6%)
4 (2.4%)

24 (11.4%)

7 (3.3%)
6 (2.9%)
6 (2.9%)
5 (2.4%)

NFC West

Cardinals
49ers
Rams
Seahawks

17 (10.1%)

5 (3.0%)
3 (1.8%)
5 (3.0%)
4 (2.4%)

28 (13.3%)

10 (4.8%)
8 (3.8%)
6 (2.9%)
4 (1.9%)

NFC South

Saints
Falcons
Panthers
Bucs

20 (12.0%)

9 (5.4%)
5 (3.0%)
3 (1.8%)
3 (1.8%)

29 (13.8%)

10 (4.8%)
8 (3.8%)
7 (3.3%)
4 (1.9%)

NFC North

Packers
Lions
Bears
Vikings

24 (14.4%)

9 (5.4%)
6 (3.6%)
5 (3.0%)
4 (2.4%)

107 (51%) NFC TOTAL 83 (49%)

26 (12.4%)

9 (4.3%)
9 (4.3%)
4 (1.9%)
4 (1.9%)

AFC East

Patriots
Jets
Bills
Dolphins

25 (15.0%)

8 (4.8%)
7 (4.2%)
5 (3.0%)
5 (3.0%)

26 (12.4%)

8 (3.8%)
7 (3.3%)
6 (2.9%)
5 (2.4%)

AFC West

Chargers
Chiefs
Raiders
Broncos

23 (13.8%)

7 (4.2%)
6 (3.6%)
6 (3.6%)
4 (2.4%)

28 (13.3%)

8 (3.8%)
7 (3.3%)
7 (3.3%)
6 (2.9%)

AFC South

Colts
Jaguars
Texans
Titans

18 (10.8%)

6 (3.6%)
4 (2.4%)
5 (3.0%)
3 (1.8%)

20 (9.5%)

7 (3.3%)
6 (2.9%)
4 (1.9%)
3 (1.4%)

AFC North

Ravens
Steelers
Bengals
Browns

19 (11.4%)

7 (4.2%)
6 (3.6%)
4 (2.4%)
2 (1.2%)

100 (47.6%) AFC TOTAL 85 (51%)

*There were 3 players taken that are not currently on rosters

 

What I take away from this is simple: I expected there to be a much heavier premium on players on winning teams.

While my preseason rankings are nearly identical order above, I expected there to be a much greater disparity between the top teams in the NFL and the basement dwellers.

Either way, I though these were good numbers to look at, and I plan on reexamining them after the season to see if the number of fantasy players drafted has any correlation to a teams winning percentage.

Another strange thing happened to me last night: I feel more confident in my roster in a 14-team league than I do in a 12-team league. I'm not even talking about comparing them to the competition.

Just compare my two drafts to each other and see for yourself (Keep in mind there are no TE's in the Fantasy Island league):

Pick 12-Team League

8

Michael Vick, Phi QB  
17 Michael Turner, Atl RB  
32 Dwayne Bowe, KC WR  
41 Ryan Mathews, SD RB  
56 Anquan Boldin, Bal WR  
65 Ryan Grant, GB RB  
80 Pierre Garcon, Ind WR  
89 Michael Bush, Oak RB  
104 Ravens D/ST D/ST  
113 Matt Cassel, KC QB  
128 Michael Crabtree, SF WR  
137 Steve Smith, Phi WR  
152 Rob Bironas, Ten K  
161

Roscoe Parrish, Buf WR

Pick 14-Team League
3 Arian Foster, Hou RB  
26 Frank Gore, SF RB  
31 Vincent Jackson, SD WR  
54 Tony Romo, Dal QB  
59 Dallas Clark, Ind TE  
82 Julio Jones, Atl WR  
87 Reggie Bush, Mia RB  
110 Pierre Thomas, NO RB  
115 Lee Evans, Bal WR  
138 Bears D/ST D/ST  
143 Ben Tate, Hou RB  
166 Andre Roberts, Ari WR  
171 Garrett Hartley, NO K  
194 Randy Moss, FA WR  
199 Devin Hester, Chi WR  

Now take a look at the two projected starting lineups. Am I crazy, or does it seem like the 14-team roster is actually better?

12-Team

QB - Mike Vick, PHI
RB - Michael Turner, ATL
RB - Ryan Matthews, SD
WR - Dwayne Bowe, KC
WR - Anquan Boldin, BAL
WR - Pierre Garcon, IND
K - Rob Bironas, TEN
D/ST - Ravens, BAL

14-Team

  QB- Tony Romo, DAL
  RB - Arian Foster, HOU
  RB - Frank Gore, SF
  RB/WR - Reggie Bush, MIA
  WR - Vincent Jackson, SD
  WR - Julio Jones, ATL
  TE - Dallas Clark, IND
  K - Garrett Hartley, NO
  D/ST - Bears, CHI

 

- Don't forget to sign up for next week's free game on FanDuel. There is $300 in guaranteed prize money, plus a bonus if you can beat my score. And like I said, it's FREE to join.

     - You can also sign up for a chance to win a grand prize of $75,000 playing fantasy baseball. That's right, $75K, plus tons of other payouts (over $200,000) in FanDuel's Fantasy Football Championship.

     - Don't forget about fantasy baseball. There's still time to play, and you can actually still earn a seat in FanDuel's Daily Fantasy Baseball Championship, with a chance to play for $25,000.

 


Matt Mullin is a sports producer at philly.com. You can reach him by e-mail at mmullin@philly.com. Follow Matt on Twitter: @matt_mullin

Matt Mullin Sports Editor
About this blog
From football to baseball, Fantasy Island is your stop for all things fantasy, with a Philly spin. Reach Matt at mmullin@philly.com.

Matt Mullin Sports Editor
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