Time is winding down on our fantasy football season (shed tear). Pretty soon you will be off to start paying attention to your hockey squad or closing your laptop in time to get some glimpses of the sun before we head into whatever weather winter plans on sending our way.
By now, you should be starting your playoffs or be in the final week of your regular season. And if you are reading this, I would like to congratulate you on making the playoffs or having one last shot at sneaking in with a Week 14 upset. I have to assume those seeking advice would only be doing so because they’re still fighting.
However, if you are not one of those people who are in your league’s postseason and are here to spoil someone else’s fun with an upset of your own to thwart their chances, I applaud you. Nothing can sweeten up a disappointing fantasy season than getting to knock a ‘friend’ out in a last ditch effort. Kudos to you for keeping up the league’s integrity and following the Fantasy Football Moral Code of Ethics (yet to be actually written down).
Anyway, let’s jump into some free agents who you could use to play shenanigans on your opponent.
QUARTERBACK
Rex Grossman WAS (Yahoo 11%, ESPN 8%) vs. New England
Never in my wildest dreams did I ever think I would get to write about 'Sexy Rexy' as a worthwhile fantasy quarterback. Maybe in a league of quarterbacks who weigh over 250 lbs. But not here, not now, when your 2011 fantasy life could be at stake. Oh, but alas, I have reason to believe he’s a solid play this week. The last two weeks, Grossman is 10th in passing yards. The last two weeks, he also has had a guy by the name of Santana Moss catching passes for him. Moss had been out with an injury since Grossman lost the QB job in Washington. Now it isn’t to say Mr. Moss is getting big yards. But his presence alone offers a safety blanket for Grossman, as he has 19 targets in two games while catching nine balls. And it isn’t as if the Patriots hang their hats on the defense stopping the opponent to win games. Since Week 6, only KC QB Tyler Palko failed to throw for 250 yards and a touchdown. Come on, even winless Dan Orlovsky still managed two touchdowns and 353 yards last week, though those scores both came late in the 4th quarter. Vince Young and Mark Sanchez are in that mix too. By 2011 standards, they aren’t exactly the picture of a perfect QB.
WIDE RECEIVER
Devin Aromashodu MIN (Yahoo 1%, ESPN < 1%) vs. Detroit
Certainly anyone who took the time Sunday to watch Tim Tebow fell into a trance as Tebow-mania ran wild in a game that was not lacking in big plays in the second half between the Broncos and Vikings. QB Christian Ponder was successful in exploiting matchups and finding both Percy Harvin, who was all over the field, and Aromashodu for sizeable gains. Much of Aromashodu’s career has been lackluster in production. For the first time all season, he had more than two catches in a game and was targeted 15 times. Not exactly what you would expect from a guy who had 41 catches in his three previous seasons. But he averaged 15.0 yards per catch in hauling six Ponder passes for receptions. With Adrian Peterson looking likely to be sitting again, it could mean more passing plays and more concentration from the Lions secondary to Harvin, who had 156 yards last week.
Brad Smith BUF (Yahoo 3%, ESPN < 1%) at San Diego
I can’t believe the number of Bills receivers who have had big production for one or two weeks this season. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has a knack for finding chemistry quickly with guys. He also had his first back-to-back games without throwing an interception. But that’s beside the point here. The case is being made right now for the quarterback turned gadget man turned late season receiver. Smith has 70+ yards in his last two games, has 14 catches in his last three games and is averaging 8.5 targets in that span. He has become the No. 2 option opposite Stevie Johnson.
RUNNING BACK
Dexter McCluster KC (Yahoo 36%, ESPN 20%) at New York Jets
The multi-faceted McCluster finally found his groove in Week 13 to the tune of 107 offensive yards and a touchdown to boot. Sure, it was the only touchdown scored in the game and it came on a prayer of a bomb at the end of the half, but style points aren’t going to give you a win. With the questionable QB situation in KC (Orton’s finger remains up in the air, Palko’s skills are even higher), you would think Todd Haley is going to work more plays in for the game-breakers including McCluster. Consider that he is a solid runner (5.6 YPC in 4 of last 5) and pass catcher, whether he is in the backfield or lined up wide. The Jets have been prone to allow running backs of his same ilk to succeed in recent weeks.
Week 13: Roy Helu – 100 rush yards, 42 rec. yards
Week 12: C.J. Spiller – 55 rush yards, 35 rec. yards
Week 9: Fred Jackson – 82 rush yards, 38 rec. yards
Marion Barber (Yahoo 36%, ESPN 17%) at Denver
I’d like to say that I predicted this was going to happen, that Matt Forte was going to get hurt just as we entered the final weeks. But seven weeks back, I had tossed out the notion that teams would cut back on the usage of their stars due to wear and tear of a shortened training camp, opening the door for guys like Marion Barber. Here we stand (or sit if you are Forte), the Bears holding on for dear life to a Wild Card spot, using Caleb Hanie as the on-field manager. It’s not looking great for the Bears. Lest, they get a Denver defense that allowed big-bodied Toby Gerhart to go for 100 on the ground. And Barber is now the go-to guy, no longer relegated to playing the role of the vulture. In three of the last four games, Barber has seen an increased workload, with double digit carries.
TIGHT END
Jermaine Gresham CIN (Yahoo 43%, ESPN 24%) vs. Houston
Gresham is consistent and that’s really what you need from the tight end position. Correctly predicting when a tight end is going to go off is too risky in my book. All season long, rookie QB Andy Dalton has looked to Gresham, though it isn’t as if Dalton’s relied solely on him. Outside of Week 2 when Gresham had two catches for eight yards, he has managed 3+ catches and 20+ yards in every game. Your thought should be ‘why do I want someone who only gets 20 yards?’ and I wouldn’t disagree with you. But he has scored a touchdown in two of the three games he only had between 20-30 yards and also had 4 or 5 catches in those games, so in a PPR league, he has worth. In his last three games, Gresham is averaging 13.9 YPC while the Texans’ defense has allowed tight ends to go for 12.9 YPC the last three weeks. They have given up only two touchdowns to tight ends this year, though, so a touchdown would come as a bonus for you.
Matt Mullin is a sports producer at philly.com. You can reach him by e-mail at mmullin@philly.com. Follow Matt on Twitter: @matt_mullin
It's hard to believe that 10 weeks of NFL football are already behind us. The good news is, there are still seven left to go, including the stretch run and fantasy playoffs.
While your league's regular season may just be heating time, the time to make trades is beginning to wind down. Yes, the dreaded trade deadline is approaching. Soon, the waiver wire (which we'll get to in a moment) will be your only option to replace injured players, or look for a late season spark.
That's why I've decided to give you some guys that you can buy low right now, as well as some guys you may want to sell immediately, as their price has hit the tipping point, and can't go any higher.
BUY
Denarius Moore (OAK, WR) - Carson Palmer is now the quarterback for the Oakland Raiders, and he's found his favorite target: Denarius Moore. Palmer has targeted Moore more than any other Raiders receiver in the last two weeks. With some favorable matchups on the horizon, the two should continue to connect. If you need a player at WR, pick up Moore. If he's already taken, try to use that RB that can't break into your starting lineup as bait. He's going to be a good player the rest of the way.
SELL
DeMarco Murray (DAL, RB) - Even though Murray will continue to be the starter when Felix Jones returns, nothing upsets a fantasy owner more than a touchdown vulture (See: Ben Tate). Murray will get the bulk of the carries, but Jones is extremely explosive and can pick up yards in a hurry. For his career, he only has one touchdown from inside five yards. Murray is still a start in basically all leagues, but there is definitely a lot of value out there right now, and as Jones' health improves, look for the carries to be more evenly distributed.
Reggie Bush (MIA, RB) - If you have Reggie Bush on your roster, like me, odds are that he is nothing more than a flex player, or possibly even struggling to get into your lineup. You almost certainly didn't draft him to be a starting running back. Over the last few weeks, however, that is exactly what he has become. Bush is getting more touches, especially in the red zone, than he ever has in his career. The problem? I'm skeptical that he will be able to keep it up for the rest of the season. It may not be a bad time to shop Bush, as someone in your league may be hurting at running back, and you can get a solid receiver or two in return to help set you up for a playoff push.
Eric Decker (DEN, WR) - With Tim Tebow at the helm, it appears as though the Broncos have decided to borrow a neighboring high school's playbook. Last game, Tebow only had two completions. One of them happened to be a 56-yard touchdown to Decker, but I don't like those odds every week. Because he's been so solid all season, you should be able to get good value for Decker.
Remember how I said we would get to the waiver wires? Here's a look at some options for you from Greg Boyce:
QUARTERBACKS
Carson Palmer, CIN - (Yahoo 41%, ESPN 26%) vs. Minnesota
“Really, Greg? Carson Palmer? He’s played in three games.” Yes, I might be a bit presumptuous in my adoration for Palmer. But let’s look at the facts: five touchdowns and 631 passing yards in two starts so far. Even with RB Michael Bush going off last Thursday, Palmer still ‘got his’. Even if RB Darren McFadden returns this week, I’d still be a big proponent of starting Palmer over most quarterbacks. Meanwhile, you have the Vikings. Oh, the Vikings. In their last four games, they have allowed 4, 3, 3 and 2 touchdown passes. They haven’t picked off a pass since Week 5. They have held a quarterback below 260 yards twice all season. All signs point to a big day for Carson.
Matt Moore, MIA - (Yahoo 5%, ESPN 2%) vs. Buffalo
It isn’t so much his play as of late, but the matchup with the Bills that has me excited. Moore has become a more efficient passer in the last two games (71% completion) and has been concentrating on his best weapon in WR Brandon Marshall. Marshall is the fifth most targeted player in the NFL in the last two games and has turned 15 of the 20 targets into receptions. As a bonus, it seems the ghost of Reggie Bush might have returned. He has at least 3 catches the last three games and always has the speed to break a dump off pass loose. As for the Bills, they have given up big passing yards all season. Three quarterbacks threw for over 300 yards, and six have thrown for at least 270. They allowed Tony Romo to utterly destroy them on Sunday and are falling fast in the AFC playoff race as the Dolphins look like the spoiler team in these last few weeks.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Laurent Robinson, DAL - (Yahoo 52%, ESPN 13%) vs. Washington
Fresh off of a two touchdown performance, Robinson has thrived in the absence of WR Miles Austin. He has four touchdowns in his last three games, equaling his total from the prior four seasons. Needless to say, he has found success, since he has nearly matched his career high in receptions and set a career mark in yards, yet he has only played in seven games. He also has shown good hands, catching 13 of the 16 balls that came in his direction the last two games.
Damian Williams, TEN - (Yahoo 10%, ESPN 2%) vs. Atlanta
The former Trojan and Razorback has also taken advantage of an injury on the depth chart. With the loss of WR Kenny Britt, Williams has taken a shine to QB Matt Hasselbeck. Since Britt went down in Week 3, Williams has led the Titans in targets and is second on the team to RB Chris Johnson with 21 receptions. Lately, Williams has been productive, with 13 catches and two touchdowns in his last three games for an average of 15.5 YPC. He has outperformed Dez Bryant, Dwayne Bowe, Stevie Johnson, Steve Smith, Roddy White and Jeremy Maclin, to name a few.
RUNNING BACKS
Kregg Lumpkin, TB - (Yahoo 2%, ESPN 1%) vs. Green Bay
It sure isn’t the sexiest name you want to see filling a roster spot as you fight for a playoff spot. He certainly isn’t the top guy in the Tampa Bay backfield. But he catches passes and turns them into good yardage. In the last three games, the great unknown has caught fifteen balls for an average of 6.5 YPC. Nothing too stupendous but if you are really fighting with byes (Foster, Mendenhall, every Saints and Steelers receiver) it is some points that could push you ahead. It seems likely that Tampa will play from behind against the Packers. In fact, that is about the most certain notion this week. You could be looking at Lumpkin getting garbage time and dump off passes. Since Week 7, he is behind just WR Mike Williams and TE Kellen Winslow in team targets.
Chris Ogbonnaya, CLE - (Yahoo 27%, ESPN 14%) vs. Jacksonville
Hey, at least he is a starting running back. Who cares if it is for the Browns, he is guaranteed the most carries. There is nothing too much to say about him though. Elusive? No. Speedster? Not really. Bowl you over? Unlikely. He picked up a start in Week 13 and managed 4.7 yards per rush against a suddenly not-so-bad St. Louis defense. And the Jags run D has been inconsistent as of late. RB Rashard Mendenhall and RB Arian Foster went for 146 and 112, respectively, plus a touchdown. But RB Ray Rice (3.5 YPR) and RB Donald Brown (3.8 YPR) were largely stuffed by the Jags. I would consider him only as a Flex option.
Marion Barber, CHI - (Yahoo 18%, ESPN 7%) vs. San Diego
Two words: Touchdown vulture. Week 10 brought a three-game touchdown streak to a halt. I expect Chicago to run the ball a lot. Meaning the increased workload for Barber (22 carries last two games) may pay dividends.
Matt Mullin is a sports producer at philly.com. You can reach him by e-mail at mmullin@philly.com. Follow Matt on Twitter: @matt_mullin
Just looking at points scored for any certain player can ofter be misleading, especially when some have had the by while others haven't. Even averages can be skewed by a how difficult a player's opponents have been.
For example, four of the top six teams in points allowed against quarterbacks are the four teams that comprise the AFC North. Therefore, the quarterbacks that play 6 games a season against those teams (Ben Roethlisberger, Joe Flacco, Colt McCoy, and Andy Daulton) are going to have lower point totals because of stiffer competition. Even the quarterbacks from the NFC West (each of whom play four games against the AFC North) are going to have lower numbers.
To help, I devised a statistic (I'm sure I'm not the only one who uses this) to rank quarterbacks on their average points above their opponents. I call it AFPD, or "Average Fantasy Point Differential."
What it measures is the how many points a quarterback averages vs. how many points his opponents allow on average. Here is what the formula looks like:
AFPD = T/X - P/X
T = Total points scored; P = Sum of average points allowed by opponents; X = Number of weeks played
Here it is in practice:
Aaron Rodgers scored a total of 182 fantasy points this season. So far, he has played 7 games. Here is a list of his opponents, and how many fantasy points they surrender to quarterbacks on average.
Saints - 16 points
Panthers - 14.6 points
Bears - 16.8 points
Broncos - 20.3 points
Falcons - 16.1 points
Rams - 17.5 points
Vikings - 15.9 points
Therefore, AFPD = 182/7 - (16+14.6+16.8+20.3+16.1+17.5+15.9)/7
OR
AFPD = 182/7 - 117.2/7
OR
AFPD = 26 - 16.7 = 9.3
Aaron Rodgers has an AFPD of 9.3, but what does that mean. Simply, it means that on average, he scores 9.3 points more than his opponents allow in any given week.
I think it also shows just how much better of a season Rodgers is having than any other quarterback. And how Cam Newton isn't just the beneficiary of playing some weak defenses. I think this is a better way of handicapping (or comprising power rankings of) the top quarterbacks in the league. It takes more than average points into consideration, and is a fairly easy way to add a strength of schedule component, even though it is far from perfect.
I took the liberty (and time) to figure out who the top 10 quarterbacks were in AFPD and listed them below. I wasn't sure how telling of a statistic this would be until I looked down the list. If I had to think which 10 quarterbacks were having the best fantasy seasons, these are most of the guys I would pick.
| Points Scored | AFPD | |
| 1. Aaron Rodgers, GB |
182 | 9.3 |
| 2. Drew Brees, NO | 159 | 7.5 |
| 3. Tom Brady, NE | 132 | 7.4 |
| 4. Cam Newton, CAR |
160 | 6.9 |
| 5. Matthew Stafford, DET |
129 | 3.4 |
| 6. Ryan Fitzpatrick, BUF | 93 | 3.1 |
| 7. Michael Vick, PHI |
109 |
2.8 |
| 8. Matt Schaub, HOU |
109 | 2.2 |
| 9. Tony Romo, DAL | 94 | 1.9 |
| 10. Eli Manning, NYG | 103 | 1.3 |
Matt Mullin is a sports producer at philly.com. You can reach him by e-mail at mmullin@philly.com. Follow Matt on Twitter: @matt_mullin
Sorry about the absence. I have been busy building and maintaining the new microsite for Philadelphia SportsWeek, the Daily News' weekly sports magazine. If you haven't already, you should definitely check it out, especially if you're a fan of long-form journalism like me.
With no Eagles game yesterday, I got to take in a lot of NFL football. Between Fox, CBS, and the RedZone channel, it's safe to say I got my fill. Here's a look at 5 things I learned:
1. Arian Foster's back.
I was ecstatic yesterday as I watched Arian Foster run (and catch) all over the Titans on his way to a three touchdown day. Last year's fantasy MVP brought in 43.5 points for me in my work league, and even prompted an angry text from my opponent. It was just like 2010 all over again (except this time he was my top pick, rather than the steal of the draft).
Then, Karma.
DeMarco Murray went off for 32 points to take away any chance I had at coming back in the FIFL. The inevitable loss will see me fall to 3-4 on the season.
Murray, who got the start in place of injured running back Felix Jones, carried the ball 25 times for 253 yards including a 91-yard touchdown run. Granted, he was facing the Rams, one of the worst defenses against the run, but it's still impressive. Keep an eye out for this rookie out of Oklahoma.
2. Aaron Rodgers is really good...
So maybe this isn't a new revelation, but it is the truth. After a slow first half, Aaron Rodgers blew up in the second half - especially the first 5 minutes. He was 3-3 for 108 yards and 2 touchdowns in the opening 4 minutes and 31 seconds after the break. He also pushed his QB rating for the season up to 125.7. His career rating is 101.9. So yea, the kid can play. But we knew that...
3. ... and so is Cam Newton.
I still have some doubts about Cam Newton as an NFL quarterback (see 2-5 record), but as a fantasy QB, the kid is a stud. He averages 22.5 points per game and had the second highest points scored by a quarterback heading into this week.
Against a Redskins defense that had been allowing just 11.6 points per game to opposing quarterback, Newton put up a solid 25 points. He had a 127.5 quarterback rating his highest since Week 1 and completed 78.3% of his passes, by far his best mark of the season.
4. I still hate Tim Tebow.
Yes, Tim Tebow brought his team back. Yes, he threw two touchdowns and ran for a two-point conversion late in the game to force overtime and eventually beat the Dolphins. What's their record again? This may be a unwarranted shot at a Florida Gator by a former Hurricane, but can people please stop praising him?
He is yet to complete more than 50% of his passes in a game this season, and in all likelihood he won't ever be an above-average NFL quarterback. So why is he getting more publicity than Newton (see above)? Maybe he isn't. Maybe it just feels that way.
5. Kickers and defenses can put up points.
Sure, they're the red-headed step children of your fantasy roster. You neglect them, drop them during the bye, and basically don't even notice when they're missing. This week, however, Seven (four defenses and three kickers) of the top 30 scorers in fantasy came from those two positions. In fact, the Chiefs defense put up 30 points, which ranks them fourth overall this weekend. This wasn't a one-weekend anamoly either. Last week, it was the same story. Seven (also four defenses and three kickers) were in the top 30.
When you look at the whole season, however, there is only one defense (Ravens) that cracks the top 30. Clearly it's all about matchups. Maybe it's time to stop neglecting those positions, as plugging in the right kicker and defense can go a long way towards winning your matchup. Plus, there's always plenty available on the waiver wire.
**
I'll be back tomorrow with some power rankings for quarterbacks, which will take strength of schedule for the first 7 weeks and the rest of the way into consideration.
**
Here is a link to more fantasy content provided by our partner, TSN.
Matt Mullin is a sports producer at philly.com. You can reach him by e-mail at mmullin@philly.com. Follow Matt on Twitter: @matt_mullin
Each week Greg Boyce, my colleague on the sports desk at Philly.com, will scour the waiver wire to bring you the best options to fill those pesky holes on your roster. Here is his report for Week 7:
*Percentages are the percent of leagues that the player is owned in
Byes: Bills, Bengals, Patriots, Giants, Eagles, 49ers
QUARTERBACKS
Matt Cassel KC (Yahoo 34%, ESPN 60%) vs. Oakland
A great pickup as a filler especially with four top 10 fantasy quarterbacks on bye this week. Cassel has excelled in his last three games, completing passes at a 68% rate while also throwing for seven touchdowns and one interception in that period. And not that you should concern yourself with who is getting the ball from Cassel, so long as they catch it, but his top two targeted players the last two games are wide receivers Dwayne Bowe (12 rec. on 22 targets) and Steve Breaston (8 rec. on 10 targets). Breaston is 9th in the NFL in reception percentage with 72% among receivers who have at least three targets per game. Translation: he doesn’t miss many passes. And the Raiders are susceptible in the passing game, allowing at least two touchdown passes in the last five games.
Curtis Painter IND (Yahoo 14%, ESPN 5.4%) vs. New Orleans
Right off the bat, he is going up against New Orleans so it shapes up for the Colts to be playing from behind. Add in that Joseph Addai could be out again and even when healthy, the Colts still pass the ball more often than they run (23 more pass attempts than runs last three games). Painter has thrown five touchdowns in the last three games. Onto the matchup itself: New Orleans has given up the ninth most passing yards this season and has given up the most touchdown passes in the NFL this year with 12 in six games. Painter actually has averaged more passing yards per game in the last three weeks than the likes of Ryan Fitzpatrick, Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan, Jay Cutler and Mark Sanchez and has only turned the ball over once in that span.
RUNNING BACKS
DeMarco Murray DAL (Yahoo 16%, ESPN 3%) vs. St. Louis
Well if you were lucky enough to grab Murray before Week 6, disregard the following and accept my handshake. But please believe me when I say I mean it with no intent to harm and don’t want to be chased down on the street. Have I gone too far with the joke yet? Do you get it? Great, now let’s just all pretend Backslap-gate never ever happened. Back to the football field. Or at least to the guys who matter on the football field. Well it looks as if Felix Jones is done for a few weeks with an injury. And as my former college friend Dan K. put it this week, “Felix Jones has the best 0-1 yard runs. I can't believe that anyone else is better.” Let’s face it, Cowboys running backs have truly fizzled for what seems like forever. Now the 7th round rookie from Oklahoma gets his shot. Don’t expect him to get a ton of looks in the passing game but he gets a great matchup in what expects to be his first start against the winless Rams. In four games, the Rams have allowed teams to rush for over 100 yards. The only team not to do so against St. Louis was the Packers and let’s face it, the ‘Pack’ is 6-0 with an air assault unmatched in the NFL. They had no need to run.
Marion Barber CHI (Yahoo 11% ESPN 5%) vs. Tampa Bay
Ricky Williams BAL (Yahoo 10%, ESPN 49%) vs. Jacksonville
In no way am I condoning having these guys as a long term solution or even advising them to be your second RB this week. But if you are really in a bind, both Barber and Williams bring something to the table that could be a gamble but a worthwhile one (at least, I hope). I don’t think it is a secret to anybody that the key to Chicago’s success rests on the health of Matt Forte. In Week 6, we got a glimpse at the Bears starting to keep Forte well-rested by using Barber inside of ten yards. A contributing factor was that the Bears had a sizeable lead, but Barber may have found a role in the offense, so long as he doesn’t attempt any more backflips. The same goes for Williams giving Ray Rice a breather as we hit the midway point of the season for players who usually are accustomed to taking a good amount of hits but with the lockout may be treated differently by coaches.
TIGHT ENDS
Heath Miller PIT (Yahoo 23%, ESPN 11%) vs. Arizona
You should not expect any swanky yardage numbers from Miller with the receiving corps stretching the field for Ben Roethlisberger. After he was M.I.A. in the first two games of the season, Miller has had at least three catches in the last four games and actually is second on the Steelers in receptions in the last four games.
Ben Watson CLE (Yahoo 26%, ESPN 21%) vs. Seattle
The Seahawks have not done well against most tight ends this season. If you take away Heath Miller’s numbers against Seattle (1 rec.), No. 1 tight ends have 15 catches, 236 yards and two touchdowns in four games. The last two weeks, Tony Gonzalez (7-56) and Jake Ballard (3-72) each scored a touchdown against the ‘hawks. Meanwhile, Watson has been targeted over eight times a game in the last three weeks, good for fifth among tight ends and second on the Browns.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Kevin Walter HOU (Yahoo 26%, ESPN 12%) vs. Tennessee
Jacoby Jones HOU (Yahoo 34%, ESPN 11%) vs. Tennessee
Andre Johnson is expected to miss another week while he recovers from a hamstring injury. The toss-up between the two Texans receivers comes down to what you want. Jones is more likely to score a touchdown with his deep-threat ability (four of his 12 catches this year have been over 20 yards) while Walter is the more sure-handed. That being said, in the two games Johnson has missed, Jones has just five catches but on 18 targets. The other side of the coin has Walter making 11 receptions on 14 targets. It really is boom or bust with Jones but he could break for a big touchdown this weekend against the Titans, who have been just plain awful against the pass recently. In the last two Tennessee games, the Titans have allowed 305.5 passing yards and six touchdowns. They have given up at least 11 receptions a game to the top two wide receivers on the opposing team in the last three weeks.
Matt Mullin is a sports producer at philly.com. You can reach him by e-mail at mmullin@philly.com. Follow Matt on Twitter: @matt_mullin
Each week Greg Boyce, my colleague on the sports desk at Philly.com, will scour the waiver wire to bring you the best options to fill those pesky holes on your roster. Here is his report for Week 4:
*Percentages are the percent of leagues that the player is owned in
RUNNING BACKS
Dexter McCluster KC (Yahoo 55%, ESPN 40%)
The amphibious McCluster should be a good pickup, especially this weekend against Minnesota. The Vikings have had a stout running defense, giving up 63 yards on the ground to running backs. But that’s not what you should look at as the air game by backs is what is toying with the Vikings. In three games, the Purple People Eaters are allowing on average nine catches for 85 yards and nearly a touchdown a game. That includes Mike Tolbert, LeGarrette Blount and Jahvid Best, who last week went for 5/74 receiving. McCluster is in that same build as Best. Last week, McCluster went for six targets from Matt Cassel, tying a team high. Kansas City will create plays just for McCluster.
Kendall Hunter (Yahoo 10%, ESPN 1%)
Frank Gore has been banged up but Jim Harbaugh is saying that his running back is “good to go” on Sunday against Philadelphia. But who is to say that Gore is not a late scratch. Do you really want to be sitting there on Sunday knowing that you held on to a guy like Ryan Torain (3rd string RB), James Jones (yes, Green Bay passes it a ton but he is the fifth receiving weapon) or his own teammate Braylon Edwards (out for a few weeks after surgery and only has four catches), all who are owned in over 60% of leagues, while the starting back going against the worst fantasy defense against the run was nabbed by your opponent? Plus side if Gore does start: he hasn’t lasted a full season since 2006 and has missed 10 games in the last four seasons.
Sleeper - Alfonso Smith ARI (Yahoo 0%, ESPN 0%)
This is also contingent on the health of the top back, in this case, Beanie Wells. Wells was a late scratch on Sunday and the likely thought was Chester Taylor would be the Cardinals top back. Well he was, getting the first eight carries of the game. He managed just 20 yards. Then Alfonso Smith had a turn with his first NFL carries of his career and made the most of it, going for 54 yards rushing and 3/21 through the air. He had seven carries of 5+ yards while only playing for three quarters. The matchup is intriguing against the Giants who are decimated by injuries up front and who just got torched by LeSean McCoy. The question for Ken Whisenhunt is ‘whether Beanie plays or not?’ Right now that is not favorable either way. The question for you is ‘do you want to risk waiting?’
WIDE RECEIVER
Denarius Moore OAK (Yahoo 55%, ESPN 47%)
For the second straight week, I am going to suggest Denarius Moore. True, he is a rookie. Despite that, he leads the Raiders in targets with 15 and is second in receptions to Darren McFadden, though Moore didn’t play in Week 1. On Sunday, the Jets honed in on Darrius Heyward-Bey, limiting him to one catch, but opening up chances for Moore and fellow wideout Chaz Schilens (4/4 on targets). As for the upcoming matchup against New England (and this is where it gets fun), the Patriots are allowing 264 yards and 16 receptions to wide receiver units. Two receivers have gone over 100 yards. Bonus: Moore had a rushing touchdown this past week.
Jabar Gaffney WAS (Yahoo 16%, ESPN 6%)
Rex Grossman was finally held in check (really, it took until Week 3 to say that?) by the Cowboys but even a bad game from 'Sexy Rexy' couldn’t deter the offense. Gaffney (six targets) and fellow receiver Santana Moss (8 targets) each had five catches. It didn’t help that the Cowboys ultimately stopped the Redskins in the second half, allowing an opening touchdown and then On the year, Gaffney has 21 targets and has been the second most used weapon for Grossman. In Week 3, the Redskins go to St. Louis against one of the worst defenses against the pass. They are allowing two touchdowns per game to wideouts and are tied for fourth in passing touchdowns against.
TIGHT ENDS
Brandon Pettigrew DET (Yahoo 62%, ESPN 58%)
Well he has the hot hand with 11 receptions on 13 targets in Week 3, more than All-Pro (and quite possibly my favorite fantasy player to have) WR Calvin Johnson. Pettigrew is second on the Lions in targets and receptions and sixth among tight ends in targets. Unfortunately, Pettigrew hasn’t reached paydirt this season. The Lions Week 3 opponent, the Cowboys, have given up two touchdowns to tight ends. Favorable matchup in my mind.
Ed Dickson BAL (Yahoo 16%, ESPN 10%)
Believe it or not, Dickson has been Joe Flacco’s second favorite target this season, behind WR Anquan Boldin and tied with RB Ray Rice. Dickson has two five-catch games to his credit in the early going and is coming off of a game with nine targets. Not only has the addition of Lee Evans opened up the offense for Boldin and Rice, but Dickson has also been helped in the short passing game. In Week 1, the Jets were burnt by Jason Witten but have not faced reasonably good tight ends the past two weeks and hasn't given up much. This week we should see what side of the talent fence Dickson falls on.
For those of you that missed out on last week's opportunity to beat the expert, there is another chance for you to play, and win cash, this weekend. Sign up for our $150 Weekend Beat-the-Expert, which follows the same format as last week's game. Don't worry though, if you beat me, you get your $5 back. Picks lock at 1 p.m. on Sunday.
Matt Mullin is a sports producer at philly.com. You can reach him by e-mail at mmullin@philly.com. Follow Matt on Twitter: @matt_mullin
Sorry, guys. I've been busy this week and haven't been keeping up with my posts. Don't worry though, because now you'll get all the usual info in one gigantic post.
I'm not going to waste any time. Here are some FanDuel bargains and busts, which will be really helpful if you plan to beat me in this week's $150 Beat the Expert tournament:
BARGAINS
Cam Newton (QB - CAR), $8,000: Newton has a favorable matchup this week against the struggling Jaguars. Look for Newton to have a game more in line with Week 1 than Week 2. For the price, Newton could be worth a start.
Ryan Matthews (RB - SD), $7,700: With Mike Tolbert's status in question, look for Matthews to get the majority of carries, which should be the case even when Tolbert is healthy. Another plus for Matthews is his matchup against the Chiefs. Last week, Jahvid Best torched Kansas City for 2 touchdowns on 123 combined yards. Especially if the Chargers get out to a big lead, we could see a lot of Ryan Matthews on Sunday.
Ben Tate (RB - HOU), $6,400: With Arian Foster's status once again in doubt, look for Tate to carry the bulk of the load. For this price, Tate could be the best bargain out there.
Mike Williams (WR - SEA), $5,500: I haven't been high on Williams all year, but between the low price and his matchup against the Cardinals, I think he's a safe pick for your third wide receiver spot.
Mohamed Massaquoi (WR - CLE), $4,700: Speaking of low price tags and potentially high upside, Massaquoi could be a solid pick. The Dolphins pass defense is allowing 361.5 yards and 3 touchdowns per game. There's a chance that Colt McCoy could find Massaquoi for his first touchdown of the season, even the wideout isn't 100%.
BUSTS
Aaron Rodgers (QB - GB), $9,900: Aaron Rodgers is a great quarterback, arguably the best, as long as his opponent isn't the Chicago Bears. In his last five games against the Bears, including the postseason, Rodgers has thrown three touchdowns and four interceptions. Those are some telling numbers. I can't see Rodgers, the most expensive player, playing up to the hefty price tag put on him this week.
Arian Foster (RB - HOU), $9,600: He was a game-time decision last week, just as he is this week. That didn't work out too well for people who decided to play him last week. Look for Tate to get the most touches again this week, making Foster far from worth what it will cost to start him.
Steven Jackson (RB -STL), $7,400: Jackson MAY play this weekend. That's reason enough to shy away from him. Couple that with that fact that he play the Ravens, and it's a no-brainer.
Hakeem Nicks (WR - NYG), $8,600: He'll have to deal with Asante Samuel, Nnamdi Asomugha, and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. With a hurting receiving corps around him, the Eagles secondary will be able to focus on Nicks. Hard to pay top dollar for that matchup.
Reggie Wayne (WR - IND), $7,800: No Peyton Manning. Steelers defense. Either way, I'm not playing him.
So there's a look at some guys who could make, or break, your week. Now let's look at some players you may have on your bench and are considering promoting to the starting lineup in this week's edition of "Start/Sit."
Ryan Fitzpatrick (QB - BUF): Chad Henne had a big game against the Patriots in Week 1. Last week it was Philip Rivers. Fitzpatrick is somewhere in between the two of them, but the Harvard grad is still poised for a big week against division rival New England. I don't expect the Bills to beat the Pats, but that doesn't mean he can't have a big game. Ask Henne. VERDICT: START
Darren Sproles (RB - NO): Sproles was brought in to New Orleans to fill the void left by Reggie Bush. His main role is to be a third-down back, catch balls out of the backfield, and provide a threat from wherever he lines up. He is, as a matter of fact, a lot like Bush. That doesn't bode well for his Week 3 matchup against the Texans. In the first two games, Houston's defense has allowed a total of 4 receptions by running backs. After nine receptions against the Patriots in Week 1, Bush was held to just one last week against the Texans. As a player who's best assest is catching balls in the open field, look for Sproles to struggle against a suddenly dominant Houston defense. I didn't even mention the fact that the New Orleans backfield is nearly as crowded as their receiving corps. VERDICT: SIT
Jahvid Best (RB - DET): He's a duel threat, and has a receiving and rushing touchdown this season. With as hot as the Lions have been this season, best is becoming a must start. I played him a lot last season and began to become discouraged. Looks like I was just a year early. VERDICT: START
Austin Collie (WR - IND): Collie's fantasy stock was through the roof last season. This season, it can't get much lower. That just shows you how important Peyton Manning is to his receivers, and not the other way around. VERDICT: SIT
Jordy Nelson (WR - GB): Did you read my earlier entry on Aaron Rodgers' numbers against the Bears? There just won't be enough touchdowns to go around, I'm afraid. Normally, Nelson is a solid start. This week, I'm not so sure. VERDICT: SIT
Finally, let's take a look at some players that have the potential to be a "difference maker" on Sunday, meaning they could score enough points to secure you the win, making it impossible for your opponent to catch up. Last week, that guy was Vincent Jackson for me. In one of my leagues, I had him on my team and won. In the other league, I played against him and, you guessed it, lost.
Here are some players that could be that guy in Week 3:
Tom Brady (QB - NE) vs. Buffalo
Ray Rice (RB - BAL) vs. St. Louis
Larry Fitzgerald (WR - ARI) vs. Seattle
For those of you that missed out on last week's opportunity to beat the expert, there is another chance for you to play, and win cash, this weekend. Sign up for our $150 Weekend Beat-the-Expert, which follows the same format as last week's game. Don't worry though, if you beat me, you get your $5 back. Picks lock at 1 p.m. on Sunday.
Here's a look at my potential roster, but I may make some last minute changes. Can you beat me?

Matt Mullin is a sports producer at philly.com. You can reach him by e-mail at mmullin@philly.com. Follow Matt on Twitter: @matt_mullin
Each week Greg Boyce, my colleague on the sports desk at Philly.com, will scour the waiver wire to bring you the best options to fill those pesky holes on your roster. Here is his report for Week 3:
Before we get into Week 3, I just want to go back to my suggestions last week. Eric Decker (5-113, 2 TDs) and Devery Henderson (3-103, TD) had very good games. Unfortunately, people have jumped on them. On ESPN, they have both been added in over 30% of leagues. But they are not 100% owned so they might still be available in your league and I still support picking them up.
Onto Week 3.
*Percentages are the percent of leagues that the player is owned in
WIDE RECEIVERS
Denarius Moore OAK (Yahoo 21%, ESPN 10%)
Right, I know, it was only one game and he plays for the Raiders. But five catches, 146 yards and a touchdown last week on a team that didn’t get production out of the receiver spot in Week 1 is enough for me. Plus, there is this from head coach Hue Jackson this week when asked about Moore continuing to get more playing time. "Oh boy, you better believe it. I mean there's no doubt. You can't deny that one." Eight targets and a bomb of a 50-yard home run touchdown from Jason Campbell. For a team that is defended to run with Darren McFadden and Michael Bush, Moore may get some one-on-one opportunities going forward.
Nate Washington TEN (Yahoo 15%, ESPN 5%)
All good things for Washington and the Titans coming up. They are going up against Denver, which was torched for 260 yards from the Bengals top two receivers with a rookie quarterback throwing the ball. Last week, Titans QB Matt Hasselbeck was accurate and efficient against a tough Baltimore defense, throwing for 358 yards. And with teams keying on Tennessee’s top wide receiver, Kenny Britt, Washington has quietly put together two solid games, catching 13 balls in two weeks. He has not scored a touchdown yet, but especially in a PPR league, Washington is a good fill-in for the week.
Other favorable matchups
Jerome Simpson CIN (Yahoo 26%, ESPN 49%) vs. SF
David Nelson BUF (Yahoo 26%, ESPN 7%) vs. NE
TIGHT ENDS
Scott Chandler BUF (Yahoo 33%, ESPN 34%)
I am usually scared to go with the guy with a hot streak who is a relative unknown in prior seasons. But three touchdowns in two games and Chandler becomes all the more appealing, especially with the way the Bills’ offense has looked, especially with Ryan Fitzpatrick completing 63% of passes. Chandler had only four targets and two catches in Week 2 but one of those catches resulted in a touchdown and on the other, Chandler was tackled at the 1-yard line, just shy of another score.
Fred Davis WAS (Yahoo 27%, ESPN 30%)
He has moved up from my ‘Watch’ list to my ‘Add him now list’ after a game in which the Redskins threw the ball 43 times. Rex Grossman targeted Davis seven times on Sunday and he caught six of them. The lone incompletion came when the Redskins were on Arizona’s 25 and Grossman looked for him in the endzone. What was impressive about the touchdown Davis had in Week 2 is that the Redskins had first down at the goal line and opted to throw the ball. Davis has clearly usurped Chris Cooley as the top tight end in Washington and has now caught a team—high 11 of the 13 balls thrown his way.
RUNNING BACKS
Roy Helu WAS (Yahoo 31%, ESPN 18%)
Though Helu is the backup to Tim Hightower, it didn’t stop Mike Shanahan from using him 10 times out of the backfield last week. In averaging 7.4 yards per carry, Helu may have made Shanahan take notice that he has another back to utilize. And though Hightower has done well so far, you know Shanahan’s history with utilizing his running backs, handing the reigns over in a matter of seconds. Helu also had three catches in Week 2.
Dexter McCluster KC (Yahoo 44%, ESPN 22%)
With the loss of Jamaal Charles, the Chiefs now have Thomas Jones (Age: 33) as the primary running back. Just looking at his numbers in 2010 and it is tough to sell me that Jones could handle a full workload successfully. McCluster has never had a true position before this season but now he will definitely be the Chiefs back along with Jones. Though Todd Haley has not said how many touches each guy will get, McCluster figures to be a factor. And on a team that has fallen hard after winning the AFC West in 2010, it might be time to switch up the offensive attack. McCluster has nine catches this season and has been used on 22 plays. Those numbers should jump.
Matt Mullin is a sports producer at philly.com. You can reach him by e-mail at mmullin@philly.com. Follow Matt on Twitter: @matt_mullin
Since the Eagles don't play until tonight, I'll actually have some time to breathe today. Therefore, I am going to be running a chat all day providing live updates, scores, and most importantly roster advice.
I'll be hopping in as much as possible to answer questions, but I have a full slate of twitter feeds being pulled in to keep you up to date.
If you're on a mobile device, click here.
Matt Mullin is a sports producer at philly.com. You can reach him by e-mail at mmullin@philly.com. Follow Matt on Twitter: @matt_mullin
With Week 1 in the books, it now becomes a battle between reality and illusion. Were big games by Cam Newton, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Chad Henne, Kenny Britt and others more of the exception rather than the rule?
How about poor games by Chad Ochocinco, Rashard Mendenhall, Dwayne Bowe, and Vincent Jackson (just to name a few)?
The worst thing you can do is panic, and abandon a top talent because of a bad week or two. It's way too early for that.
This afternoon, I posted on some bargains and busts for this weekend, and earlier in the week I posted on some waiver wire options. Next, let's take a look at some players on the bubble this weekend in Start vs. Sit:
Cam Newton (QB - CAR): It's hard impossible to ignore what Cam Newton did in his NFL debut last Sunday. This weekend, however, he doesn't face the warm and inviting Cardinals defense, but rather the Super Bowl champion Green Bay Packers. Look for Newton take a page out of the playbook of Sir Isaac Newton (no relation) and learn a little lesson in gravity: He'll return to earth. VERDICT: SIT
Ben Tate (RB - HOU): Arian Foster will likely return to the Texans lineup this weekend, but it may not neccessarily mean the end for Ben Tate. Tate was productive in Houston's Week 1 drubbing of the Colts. He'll likely play a significat role again as the Texans ease Foster back into the lineup. I own Foster and Tate on the same team and I may consider starting Tate over Foster, depending on his health. How's that for a vote of confidence? VERDICT: START
LeGarrette Blount (RB - TB): Blount had a tough time last Sunday against the Lions, but I don't expect that to continue this week. Mike Tolbert had a solid game agaist the Vikings last week, and I think that's what to expect from Blount. I see a bounceback game coming for the young back out of Oregon. VERDICT: START
Pierre Thomas (RB - NO): 1st and goal from the goalline. No time left. Saints going for the win. They hand it off? To Mark Ingram?! That should pretty much tell you all you need to know about Pierre Thomas' future with the Saints. They trust the rookie in big spots. He may have fallen short in Week 1, but Ingram could become their goalline back. That would surely take touchdowns from Thomas. They're also playing the Bears this week, which doesn't bode well for any offense. VERDICT: SIT
Matt Schaub (QB - HOU): He had a solid game in the Texans big win over the Colts and faces a Dolphins team that allowed the 5th most in NFL history in Week 1. There's no reason to expect anything less than an above average week from Schaub. The return of Arian Foster could also help Schaub, as his presence will help to keep the Miami defense honest. VERDICT: START
Robert Meachem (WR - NO): I tend to stay away from Saints receivers, strictly because of Drew Brees' obsession with spreading the ball around. The loss of Marques Colston could open things up for Meachem, who had a good Week 1. While I may have labeled Brees as a FanDuel bust, I don't have the same feelings for Meachem heading into their matchup against the Bears. VERDICT: START
Chad Ochocinco (WR - NE): Tom Brady will get Ochocinco the ball, even if his newest receiver is still in awe of how perfectly their offense runs. I was high on the Pats passing attack heading into last week's game, and rightly so. I just chose to focus on the wrong receiver. This week, look for Ochocinco to have a "Child Please" and perhaps a "Kiss the Baby" as the Pats and Chargers tangle in what's sure to be a high-scoring affair. VERDICT: START
Mike Williams (WR - SEA): Williams and the Seahawks face the Steelers this weekend. That's not a good start. In Pittsburg. Things aren't getting much better. Tavaris Jackson is still his quarterback. Geez! I think you know where I'm going with this one. VERDICT: SIT
Marcedes Lewis (TE - JAC): The loss of David Garrard wasn't a good start. I realize that he faces the Cowboys, who have injury problems in their secondary, but I just can't buy Lewis. If there is another viable option out there, I suggest you act. VERDICT: SIT
Tony Gonzalez (TE - ATL): Tight ends kill the Eagles, especially big ones. If there's a linebacker on Gonzalez, which is almost always the case, you can expect him to exploit the Birds' inexperienced corps. With the pressure they'll likely be getting up front, Matt Ryan could find himself needing a quick dump off. Enter Tony Gonzalez. VERDICT: START
For those of you that missed out on last week's opportunity to beat the expert, there is another chance for you to play, and win cash, this weekend. Sign up for our $150 Weekend Beat-the-Expert, which follows the same format as last week's game. Don't worry though, if you beat me, you get your $5 back. Picks lock at 1 p.m. on Sunday.
Matt Mullin is a sports producer at philly.com. You can reach him by e-mail at mmullin@philly.com. Follow Matt on Twitter: @matt_mullin