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Inquirer Daily News

Archive: March, 2013

POSTED: Friday, March 29, 2013, 10:06 AM
In this Monday, Feb. 25, 2013 photo, a clerk poses for a photo showing cash in the register at Vidler's 5 & 10 store in East Aurora, N.Y. U.S. consumers earned more and spent more in February, helped by a stronger job market that offset some of the drag from higher taxes, according to the Commerce Department, Friday, March 29, 2013. (AP Photo/David Duprey)

INDICATOR: February Income and Spending

KEY DATA: Consumption: +0.7 percent; Inflation Adjusted: +0.3 percent; Disposable Income: +1.1 percent

IN A NUTSHELL: “The improving job market is overcoming tax increases, allowing incomes and spending to rise.”

Joel L. Naroff @ 10:06 AM  Permalink | 0 comments
POSTED: Thursday, March 28, 2013, 1:29 PM

INDICATOR: Fourth Quarter GDP (final revision)/Jobless Claims

KEY DATA: GDP: 0.4 percent Jobless Claims: 357,000 (up 16,000)

IN A NUTSHELL: “Rising jobless claims are never good but this may just be the usual volatility not a sign that sequestration and tax increases are starting to eat into growth.”

Joel L. Naroff @ 1:29 PM  Permalink | 0 comments
POSTED: Wednesday, March 20, 2013, 7:19 PM
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks during a news conference in Washington, Wednesday, March 20, 2013, following the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta)

In a Nutshell: "Better growth but more fiscal restraint means the Fed will keep the pedal to the metal."

Rate Decision: Fed funds rate maintained at a range between 0% and 0.25%

The Federal Reserve completed its March two-day meeting and as expected maintained all the policies it has had in place for quite a while. The funds rate will remain close to zero and asset purchases will continue to be used to keep down Treasury and mortgage rates. How long the policy will be kept in place will be determined by the economy. As long as the unemployment rates remains above 6.5% and the inflation rate is below 2.5%, the Fed will keep pushing as hard as possible. Indeed, in the Fed's survey of when policy will be altered, which is released four times a year, fourteen of the nineteen members (Board Governors and regional bank presidents) don't expect that the funds rate will be increased until 2015 or later. Only one believes it could occur this year.

Joel L. Naroff @ 7:19 PM  Permalink | 0 comments
POSTED: Wednesday, March 13, 2013, 10:35 AM
Michael Riggio, owner of Michael Riggio Auto Sales in St. Louis, Missouri, wipes down a car for sale on his lot on November 20, 2012. (David Carson/St. Louis Post-Dispatch/MCT)

INDICATOR: February Retail Sales/Import and Export Prices

KEY DATA: Retail Sales: +1.1%; Excluding Vehicles: +1%/Import Prices: +1.1%; Non-Oil: 0%

IN A NUTSHELL: "At least so far, the increase in taxes has had minimal impact on household spending, showing that the economy retains a lot of momentum."

Joel L. Naroff @ 10:35 AM  Permalink | 0 comments
POSTED: Friday, March 8, 2013, 12:27 PM
In this Monday, Feb. 25, 2013 photo, Ann Oganesian, left, of Newton, Mass., pauses as she speaks with a State Department employee about job opportunities with the federal government during a job fair in Boston. U.S. employers ramped up hiring in February, adding 236,000 jobs and pushing the unemployment rate down to 7.7 percent from 7.9 percent in January. Stronger hiring shows businesses are confident about the economy, despite higher taxes and government spending cuts. (AP Photo/Michael Dwyer)

INDICATOR: February Employment Report

KEY DATA: Payrolls: +236,000; Private Sector: +246,000; Unemployment Rate: 7.7% (down 0.2 percentage point)

IN A NUTSHELL: "So far so good as rising taxes and sequestration concerns have yet to kill the economy."

Joel L. Naroff @ 12:27 PM  Permalink | 0 comments
POSTED: Thursday, March 7, 2013, 12:26 PM
In this Monday, Feb. 25, 2013, photo, Sayed Mouawad, left, of Providence, R.I., shakes hands with Jillian Wallace of Matix, Inc., during a job fair in Boston. The number of people seeking U.S. unemployment aid fell to a seasonally adjusted 340,000 in the week ended March 2, driving down the four-week average to its lowest level in five years. (AP Photo/Michael Dwyer)

INDICATOR: January Trade Deficit/Weekly Jobless Claims

KEY DATA: Deficit: $44.4 billion ($6.3 billion wider)/Claims: 340,000 (down 7,000)

IN A NUTSHELL: "While the widening trade deficit is a worry, the real story is the labor market, which if you believe the claims numbers, is getting better by the week."

Joel L. Naroff @ 12:26 PM  Permalink | 0 comments
POSTED: Wednesday, March 6, 2013, 12:16 PM
A too-familiar scene still: Applicants filling out forms at a jobs fair in Newark, N.J. (Mark Lenninhan / Associated Press)

INDICATOR: February ADP Payroll Estimates

KEY DATA: ADP: 198,000; Small: 77,000; Medium: 65,000; Large: 57,000

IN A NUTSHELL: "The economy is clearly kicking into higher gear as private sector firms look like they are starting to ramp up hiring.

Joel L. Naroff @ 12:16 PM  Permalink | 0 comments
POSTED: Tuesday, March 5, 2013, 11:37 AM
In this Monday, Feb. 25, 2013 photo, Trader Craig Spector, right, works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. World stock markets rose Tuesday March 5, 2013 as investors registered approval for China's spending priorities announced at its annual congress. (AP Photo/Richard Drew)

INDICATOR: February Supply Managers' Non-Manufacturing Survey/CoreLogic Home Price Index

KEY DATA: ISM (Non-Man.): up 0.8 point; Orders: up 3.8 points: Employment: down 0.3 point; Inventories: up 7 points/Core Logic (1 '12-1 '13): up 9.7%

IN A NUTSHELL: "If you are wondering why the stock market is hitting new highs, look no further than the economy as all segments seem to be growing faster."

Joel L. Naroff @ 11:37 AM  Permalink | 0 comments
About this blog
Joel L. Naroff is the president and founder of Naroff Economic Advisors, a strategic economic consulting firm in Bucks County. He advises companies across the country on the risks and opportunities that economic developments may have on the organization’s operating environment. An accomplished public speaker, Joel’s humor and unique ability to make economics understandable have brought him a wide following. Reach Joel at joel@naroffeconomics.com .

Joel Naroff
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