Friday, October 31, 2014
Inquirer Daily News

POSTED: Wednesday, September 24, 2014, 4:25 PM
In this Wednesday, July 30, 2014 photograph, a builder works on the construction of new homes in Belmar, N.J. The Commerce Department reports on U.S. home construction in August on Thursday, Sept. 18, 2014. (AP Photo/Mel Evans)

INDICATOR: August New Home Sales

KEY DATA: Sales: +18%; West: +50%; Inventories: -14.3%: Prices (Year-over-Year): +8%

IN A NUTSHELL: “Home builders have become very optimistic and the explanation is simple, sales are rising!”

Joel L. Naroff @ 4:25 PM  Permalink | 0 comments
POSTED: Monday, September 22, 2014, 3:03 PM
FILE - This June 19, 2014, file photo, shows a home for sale in Wilmington, N.C. Real estate data provider CoreLogic reports on U.S. home prices in July. In June, prices rose by the smallest year-over-year amount in 20 months, slowed by modest sales and more properties coming on the market. The slowing increases should make homes more affordable after prices had risen sharply last year. At the same time, Americans' pay hasn't risen nearly as fast. (AP Photo/Wilmington Star-News, Ken Blevins, File)

INDICATOR: August Existing Home Sales

KEY DATA: Sales: down 1.8%; Prices (Year-over-Year): up 4.5%

IN A NUTSHELL: “The rotation from investor to homeowner continues and that is keeping a lid on housing sales and prices.”

Joel L. Naroff @ 3:03 PM  Permalink | 0 comments
POSTED: Thursday, September 18, 2014, 10:29 AM
Morning commuters drive past the Federal Reserve Bank building in Washington March 18, 2009. (Jonathan Ernst / Reuters File Photo)

Sept 16-17 ‘04 FOMC Meeting

In a Nutshell: "... a range of labor market indicators suggests that there remains significant underutilization of labor resources."

Rate Decision: Fed funds rate maintained at a range between 0% and 0.25%

Joel L. Naroff @ 10:29 AM  Permalink | 0 comments
POSTED: Monday, September 15, 2014, 10:43 AM
In this March 14, 2014 file photo, an assembly line worker works on a 2015 Chrysler 200 automobile at the Sterling Heights Assembly Plant in Sterling Heights, Mich. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)

INDICATOR: August Industrial Production

KEY DATA: IP: -0.1%; Manufacturing: -0.4%; Vehicles: -7.6%

IN A NUTSHELL: "If you believe that vehicle production is crashing, I have a bridge for sale and you can buy as much of it as you like."

Joel L. Naroff @ 10:43 AM  Permalink | 0 comments
POSTED: Thursday, September 4, 2014, 9:50 AM
In this June 23, 2014 photo, recruiter Christina O, left, with New Western Acquisitions, meets with employment seekers during a job fair in Philadelphia. The Labor Department reports on the number of people who applied for unemployment benefits last week on Thursday, Sept. 4, 2014. (AP Photo / Matt Rourke)

INDICATOR: August ADP Job Estimates, Layoffs and Weekly Claims

KEY DATA: ADP: 204,000/ Layoffs: down 6,877/ Claims: 302,000 (up 4,000)

IN A NUTSHELL: "Declining layoffs and low jobless should mean strong job growth, even if the initial reading on the market doesn't indicate that."

Joel L. Naroff @ 9:50 AM  Permalink | 0 comments
POSTED: Thursday, August 28, 2014, 3:01 PM
In this Aug. 7, 2014 photo a worker assembles construction supplies at Northeast Building Products in Philadelphia. The Commerce Department issues its second estimate of how fast the U.S. economy grew in the April-June quarter on Thursday, Aug. 28, 2014. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)

INDICATOR: July Pending Home Sales, Revised Second Quarter GDP and Weekly Jobless Claims

KEY DATA: Pending Sales: +3.3%; Year-over-Year: -2.1%/ GDP: 4.2% (from 4.0%); Corporate Profits: +8.0%/ Claims: 298,000 (down 1,000)

IN A NUTSHELL: "If the housing market really is getting better, then there are every reasons to believe the strong growth seen in the second quarter can be repeated."

Joel L. Naroff @ 3:01 PM  Permalink | 0 comments
POSTED: Friday, August 22, 2014, 12:00 PM
FILE - In this June 18, 2014 file photo, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen speaks during a news conference at the Federal Reserve in Washington. Yellen gives the keynote speech to open the annual conference of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyo. on Friday, Aug. 22, 2014. (AP Photo/Susan Walsh, File)

In a Nutshell: "... if progress in the labor market continues to be more rapid than anticipated by the Committee, then increases in the federal funds rate target could come sooner than the Committee currently expects ... Of course, if economic performance turns out to be disappointing - then the future path of interest rates likely would be more accommodative than we currently anticipate."

If you don't like two armed economists, you will truly dislike the talk that Fed Chair Janet Yellen gave today at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City's Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

The greatly anticipated speech delved into the details of the labor markets, the impact of wages on inflation and the way that monetary policy should react. Of course, being a good economist and academic, Chair Yellen discussed all sides of the issues. For example, is the decline in the participation a result of changing structural factors such as the aging workforce or is a cyclical decline due to frustration that will unwind once the labor market firms more? The answer is, of course, yes. That is, it could be one, or the other or even both, which it likely is.

Joel L. Naroff @ 12:00 PM  Permalink | 0 comments
POSTED: Monday, August 18, 2014, 4:28 PM
A Toll Bros. home in Colo. (Rick Wilking / Reuters)

INDICATOR: August National Association of Home Builders Index

KEY DATA: Housing Market Index: 55 (up 2 points)

IN A NUTSHELL: "Builders may not be irrationally exuberant but the rise in confidence is an indication that the housing market is getting better."

Joel L. Naroff @ 4:28 PM  Permalink | 0 comments
About this blog
Joel L. Naroff is the president and founder of Naroff Economic Advisors, a strategic economic consulting firm in Bucks County. He advises companies across the country on the risks and opportunities that economic developments may have on the organization’s operating environment. An accomplished public speaker, Joel’s humor and unique ability to make economics understandable have brought him a wide following. Reach Joel at joel@naroffeconomics.com .

Joel Naroff
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