Saturday, February 13, 2016

POSTED: Friday, September 18, 2015, 8:36 AM
iStock photo of $100 bills. A western Pennsylvania teen will spend four years on probation for bleaching 18 $5 bills that he reprinted as $100s and spent at several businesses.

In a Nutshell:  “Recent global economic and financial developments may restrain economic activity somewhat and are likely to put further downward pressure on inflation in the near term.”

Rate Decision: Fed funds rate maintained at a range between 0% and 0.25%

The Fed decided that all economic and financial issues in the world are its concern and given the uncertain global economic and financial conditions, the start of rate normalization would have to wait.  Boy, what a difference seven weeks make.  After the July FOMC meeting, conditions seemed to be in place for a September rate hike.  Indeed, fifteen of seventeen participants indicated they expected rates to be increased this year.  That number dropped to thirteen and one member even thinks rates will not be increased until 2017.

POSTED: Tuesday, September 15, 2015, 12:40 PM
iStock photo of $100 bills. A western Pennsylvania teen will spend four years on probation for bleaching 18 $5 bills that he reprinted as $100s and spent at several businesses.

INDICATOR:  August Retail Sales and Industrial Production

KEY DATA:  Sales: +0.2%; Vehicles: +0.8%/ Industrial Production: -0.4%; Vehicles: -6.4%

IN A NUTSHELL:  “Given the strength of vehicle sales, I think we can safely discount the decline in industrial production that was the result of a cutback in vehicle assemblies.”

POSTED: Thursday, September 10, 2015, 10:37 AM
iStock photo of $100 bills. A western Pennsylvania teen will spend four years on probation for bleaching 18 $5 bills that he reprinted as $100s and spent at several businesses.

INDICATOR:  August Import and Export Prices and Weekly Jobless Claims

KEY DATA: Imports: -1.8%; Nonfuel: -0.4%; Exports: -1.4%; Farm: -2.6%/ Claims: -6,000

IN A NUTSHELL:  “Another day of data, another set of solid labor market but weak inflation numbers.”

POSTED: Wednesday, September 9, 2015, 12:27 PM
iStock photo of $100 bills. A western Pennsylvania teen will spend four years on probation for bleaching 18 $5 bills that he reprinted as $100s and spent at several businesses.

INDICATOR:  July Job Openings, Hires and Quits

KEY DATA:  Openings: +430,000; Hires: -199,000; Quits: -43,000

IN A NUTSHELL:  “With openings at record highs but hiring slowing, businesses are falling further behind on meeting their staffing needs.”

POSTED: Friday, September 4, 2015, 11:37 AM
iStock photo of $100 bills. A western Pennsylvania teen will spend four years on probation for bleaching 18 $5 bills that he reprinted as $100s and spent at several businesses.

INDICATOR:  August Employment Report

KEY DATA:  Payrolls: +173,000; Revisions: +44,000; Private Sector: 140,000; Manufacturing: -17,000; Public Education: +32,600; Unemployment Rate: 5.1%; Hourly Wages: +0.3%

IN A NUTSHELL:  “It is hard to make the case that the stock market mess has anything to do with the U.S. economy as the data are all pointing to solid growth.”

POSTED: Thursday, August 27, 2015, 1:41 PM
iStock photo of $100 bills. A western Pennsylvania teen will spend four years on probation for bleaching 18 $5 bills that he reprinted as $100s and spent at several businesses.

INDICATOR:  Revised Second Quarter GDP, July Pending Home Sales and Weekly Jobless Claims

KEY DATA:  GDP: +3.7% (up from 2.3%); Private Domestic Demand: +3.3%/ Pending Home Sales: +0.5%/ Claims: 271,000 (down 7,000)

IN A NUTSHELL:   “Given the strong economy, if the equity markets were not so crazy, everyone would be saying the Fed should tighten in September.”

POSTED: Tuesday, August 25, 2015, 3:52 PM
iStock photo of $100 bills. A western Pennsylvania teen will spend four years on probation for bleaching 18 $5 bills that he reprinted as $100s and spent at several businesses.

INDICATOR:  August Consumer Confidence and Philadelphia Fed Survey, July New Home Sales and June Home Prices

KEY DATA:  Confidence: +10.5 points; Home Sales: +5.4%; Phila. Fed: +7.3 points: National Home Prices (Year-over-Year): +5%

IN A NUTSHELL:  “It is hard to make the case that the stock market mess has anything to do with the U.S. economy as the data are all pointing to solid growth.”

POSTED: Thursday, August 20, 2015, 1:05 PM
In this June 10, 2015, photo, job seekers get information at a job fair in Sunrise, Fla. The Labor Department releases weekly jobless claims on Thursday, Aug. 20, 2015. (AP Photo/Alan Diaz)

INDICATOR: July Existing Home Sales and Leading Indicators, August Philadelphia Fed Survey and Weekly Jobless Claims

KEY DATA: Home Sales: +2%; Prices: +5.6%/ LEI: -0.3%/ Phila. Fed: 2.6 points/ Claims: +4,000

IN A NUTSHELL: "This may not be a booming economy, but the growth is widespread."

About this blog
Joel L. Naroff is the president and founder of Naroff Economic Advisors, a strategic economic consulting firm in Bucks County. He advises companies across the country on the risks and opportunities that economic developments may have on the organization’s operating environment. An accomplished public speaker, Joel’s humor and unique ability to make economics understandable have brought him a wide following. Reach Joel L. at joel@naroffeconomics.com .

Joel L. Naroff
Also on Philly.com:
letter icon Newsletter