Wednesday, October 1, 2014
Inquirer Daily News

POSTED: Friday, August 22, 2014, 12:00 PM
FILE - In this June 18, 2014 file photo, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen speaks during a news conference at the Federal Reserve in Washington. Yellen gives the keynote speech to open the annual conference of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyo. on Friday, Aug. 22, 2014. (AP Photo/Susan Walsh, File)

In a Nutshell: "... if progress in the labor market continues to be more rapid than anticipated by the Committee, then increases in the federal funds rate target could come sooner than the Committee currently expects ... Of course, if economic performance turns out to be disappointing - then the future path of interest rates likely would be more accommodative than we currently anticipate."

If you don't like two armed economists, you will truly dislike the talk that Fed Chair Janet Yellen gave today at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City's Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

The greatly anticipated speech delved into the details of the labor markets, the impact of wages on inflation and the way that monetary policy should react. Of course, being a good economist and academic, Chair Yellen discussed all sides of the issues. For example, is the decline in the participation a result of changing structural factors such as the aging workforce or is a cyclical decline due to frustration that will unwind once the labor market firms more? The answer is, of course, yes. That is, it could be one, or the other or even both, which it likely is.

Joel L. Naroff @ 12:00 PM  Permalink | 0 comments
POSTED: Monday, August 18, 2014, 4:28 PM
A Toll Bros. home in Colo. (Rick Wilking / Reuters)

INDICATOR: August National Association of Home Builders Index

KEY DATA: Housing Market Index: 55 (up 2 points)

IN A NUTSHELL: "Builders may not be irrationally exuberant but the rise in confidence is an indication that the housing market is getting better."

Joel L. Naroff @ 4:28 PM  Permalink | 0 comments
POSTED: Friday, August 15, 2014, 10:33 AM
Workers put finishing touches on an Indian Roadmaster motorcycle at the end of the assembly line at the Polaris Industries factory on August 8, 2014 in Spirit Lake, Iowa. (Scott Olson / Getty Images)

INDICATOR: July Industrial Production and Producer Prices

KEY DATA: IP: +0.4%; Manufacturing: +1%; PPI: +0.1%; Goods less Food and Energy: +0.2%

IN A NUTSHELL: "With manufacturers ramping up production, it is clear the economy is accelerating, but it is doing so without any major inflation pressures."

Joel L. Naroff @ 10:33 AM  Permalink | 0 comments
POSTED: Wednesday, August 13, 2014, 10:35 AM
((istock photo))

INDICATOR: July Retail Sales

KEY DATA: Total Sales: 0.0%; Excluding Vehicles: +0.1%

IN A NUTSHELL: "The consumer has taken a holiday from shopping."

Joel L. Naroff @ 10:35 AM  Permalink | 0 comments
POSTED: Tuesday, August 12, 2014, 3:21 PM

INDICATOR: June Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey

KEY DATA: Openings: +94,000; Hires: +92,000; Quits: +48,000; Layoffs: -32,000

IN A NUTSHELL: "Businesses are hiring and people are quitting, two clear signs that the labor market is firming."

Joel L. Naroff @ 3:21 PM  Permalink | 0 comments
POSTED: Friday, August 8, 2014, 2:59 PM
Ford worker Dan Fortune performs a door install on a new 2014 Ford F-150 truck on the assembly line at the Ford Dearborn Truck Plant in Dearborn, Michigan. (Bill Pugliano / Getty Images)

INDICATOR: Second Quarter Productivity and Costs

KEY DATA: Productivity: +2.5%; Output: +5.2%; Real Hourly Compensation: +0.1%; Unit Labor Costs: 0.6%

IN A NUTSHELL: "Productivity rebounded, keeping business costs low as wage gains remain largely under control."

Joel L. Naroff @ 2:59 PM  Permalink | 0 comments
POSTED: Tuesday, August 5, 2014, 1:22 PM

INDICATOR: Supply Managers' Non-Manufacturing Index

KEY DATA: ISM: +2.7 points; Orders: up 3.7 points: Employment: +1.6 points

IN A NUTSHELL: "The services sector is bouncing back rapidly and since that is the largest part of the economy, it looks as if strong growth is just about here."

Joel L. Naroff @ 1:22 PM  Permalink | 0 comments
POSTED: Thursday, July 31, 2014, 3:54 PM
((istock photo))

INDICATOR: Second Quarter Employment Cost Index and Weekly Jobless Claims

KEY DATA: ECI (Private, Year-over-Year)): +2.0%; Wages: +1.8%; Benefits: +2.5%/Claims: 302,000 (up 23,000)

IN A NUTSHELL: "Wage and benefits pressures are barely starting to accelerate even as the labor market continues to strengthen."

Joel L. Naroff @ 3:54 PM  Permalink | 0 comments
About this blog
Joel L. Naroff is the president and founder of Naroff Economic Advisors, a strategic economic consulting firm in Bucks County. He advises companies across the country on the risks and opportunities that economic developments may have on the organization’s operating environment. An accomplished public speaker, Joel’s humor and unique ability to make economics understandable have brought him a wide following. Reach Joel at joel@naroffeconomics.com .

Joel Naroff
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