INDICATOR: September Job Estimates, Help Wanted Online and Manufacturing Activity
KEY DATA: ADP Jobs: 213,000; Conference Board Help Wanted: -137,200; ISM (Man.): -2.4 points
IN A NUTSHELL: “The economy doesn’t seem to have picked up any steam in September.”
INDICATOR: September Conference Board Consumer Confidence and July Case-Shiller Housing Prices
KEY DATA: Confidence: -7.4 points/Housing Prices (National): +0.5%; Year-over-Year: +5.6%
IN A NUTSHELL: “Whether the sharp decline in consumer confidence is the result of rising international concerns or a slowing economy makes a big difference, so it is premature to start worrying.”
INDICATOR: August Income, Spending and Pending Home Sales
KEY DATA: Consumption: +0.5%; Real Disposable Income: +0.3%; Prices: flat; Excluding Food and Energy: +0.1%/Pending Sales: -1%
IN A NUTSHELL: “With incomes starting to rise a little faster, the outlook for consumer spending on everything, including housing, is brightening.”
INDICATOR: August New Home Sales
KEY DATA: Sales: +18%; West: +50%; Inventories: -14.3%: Prices (Year-over-Year): +8%
IN A NUTSHELL: “Home builders have become very optimistic and the explanation is simple, sales are rising!”
INDICATOR: August Existing Home Sales
KEY DATA: Sales: down 1.8%; Prices (Year-over-Year): up 4.5%
IN A NUTSHELL: “The rotation from investor to homeowner continues and that is keeping a lid on housing sales and prices.”
Sept 16-17 ‘04 FOMC Meeting
In a Nutshell: "... a range of labor market indicators suggests that there remains significant underutilization of labor resources."
Rate Decision: Fed funds rate maintained at a range between 0% and 0.25%
INDICATOR: August Industrial Production
KEY DATA: IP: -0.1%; Manufacturing: -0.4%; Vehicles: -7.6%
IN A NUTSHELL: "If you believe that vehicle production is crashing, I have a bridge for sale and you can buy as much of it as you like."
KEY DATA: ADP: 204,000/ Layoffs: down 6,877/ Claims: 302,000 (up 4,000)
IN A NUTSHELL: "Declining layoffs and low jobless should mean strong job growth, even if the initial reading on the market doesn't indicate that."