Saturday, February 6, 2016

POSTED: Friday, February 5, 2016, 12:04 PM
iStock photo of $100 bills. A western Pennsylvania teen will spend four years on probation for bleaching 18 $5 bills that he reprinted as $100s and spent at several businesses.

INDICATOR:  January Employment Report and December Trade Deficit

KEY DATA:  Payrolls: +151,000; Manufacturing: +29,000; Unemployment Rate: 4.9% (down 0.1 percentage point); Hourly Wages: +0.5%/ Trade Deficit: $1.1 billion wider 

IN A NUTSHELL:  “No, the sky is not falling and the labor market is not weakening as the details of the employment report were just fine.” 

POSTED: Tuesday, January 26, 2016, 4:07 PM
iStock photo of $100 bills. A western Pennsylvania teen will spend four years on probation for bleaching 18 $5 bills that he reprinted as $100s and spent at several businesses.

INDICATOR:  January Consumer Confidence, NonManufacturing Activity and November Home Prices

KEY DATA:  +1.8 points; Philadelphia Fed NonManufacturing Index: -21.6 points; Case-Shiller Home Prices (Year-over-Year): +5.3%

IN A NUTSHELL:  “The stock market is falling and with it business confidence, but to households, it’s full speed ahead.”

POSTED: Thursday, January 14, 2016, 12:01 PM
iStock photo of $100 bills. A western Pennsylvania teen will spend four years on probation for bleaching 18 $5 bills that he reprinted as $100s and spent at several businesses.

INDICATOR:  December Import and Export Prices and Weekly Jobless Claims

KEY DATA:  Imports: -1.2%; Nonfuel: -0.3%; Exports: -1.1%; Farm: -1%/ Claims: +7,000

IN A NUTSHELL:  “Falling energy costs and the rising dollar are combining to keep the prices of imported goods and overall inflation down.”

POSTED: Tuesday, December 15, 2015, 2:55 PM
iStock photo of $100 bills. A western Pennsylvania teen will spend four years on probation for bleaching 18 $5 bills that he reprinted as $100s and spent at several businesses.

INDICATOR:  November Consumer Prices and Real Earnings

KEY DATA:  0%; Excluding Food and Energy: +0.2%; Excluding Energy: +0.1%/ Real Earnings: +0.1%

IN A NUTSHELL:  “The steady rise back to normal inflation continues, adding ammunition to the Fed’s view that it is just a matter of time before its target is reached.”

POSTED: Friday, December 11, 2015, 1:42 PM
iStock photo of $100 bills. A western Pennsylvania teen will spend four years on probation for bleaching 18 $5 bills that he reprinted as $100s and spent at several businesses.

INDICATOR:  November Retail Sales and Wholesale Prices

KEY DATA:   Retail Sales: +0.2%; Excluding Vehicles: +0.4%; Control: +0.6%/ PPI: +0.3%; Goods: -0.1%; Goods Less Food and Energy: -0.1%; Services: +0.5%

IN A NUTSHELL:  “The consumer appears to be in a shopping mood and that is good news for the economy and the Fed.”

POSTED: Tuesday, December 1, 2015, 12:47 PM
iStock photo of $100 bills. A western Pennsylvania teen will spend four years on probation for bleaching 18 $5 bills that he reprinted as $100s and spent at several businesses.

INDICATOR:  November Manufacturing Activity and October Construction

KEY DATA:   ISM (Manufacturing): -1.5 points; Orders: -4 points; Hiring: +3.7 points/ Construction: +1% 

IN A NUTSHELL:  “The lull in manufacturing continues even as other segments of the economy heat up."

POSTED: Tuesday, November 17, 2015, 3:58 PM
iStock photo of $100 bills. A western Pennsylvania teen will spend four years on probation for bleaching 18 $5 bills that he reprinted as $100s and spent at several businesses.

INDICATOR:  September Housing Starts and Permits

KEY DATA:   CPI: +0.2%; Excluding Food and Energy: +0.2%/ Real Earnings: +0.2%/ IP: -0.2%; Manufacturing: +0.4%/ NAHB: -3 points

IN A NUTSHELL:  “With consumer prices stabilizing and manufacturing rebounding, the barriers to a Fed tightening continue to come down.”

POSTED: Friday, November 6, 2015, 2:37 PM
iStock photo of $100 bills. A western Pennsylvania teen will spend four years on probation for bleaching 18 $5 bills that he reprinted as $100s and spent at several businesses.

INDICATOR:  October Employment Report

KEY DATA:   Payrolls: 271,000; Revisions: +12,000; Private: 268,000; Unemployment Rate: 5% (down from 5.1%)

IN A NUTSHELL:  “Remember those stories about job growth faltering?  Well, never mind!”

About this blog
Joel L. Naroff is the president and founder of Naroff Economic Advisors, a strategic economic consulting firm in Bucks County. He advises companies across the country on the risks and opportunities that economic developments may have on the organization’s operating environment. An accomplished public speaker, Joel’s humor and unique ability to make economics understandable have brought him a wide following. Reach Joel L. at joel@naroffeconomics.com .

Joel L. Naroff
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