INDICATOR: March Job Cuts/Weekly Unemployment Claims

KEY DATA: Job Cuts: down 11% (from February); Up 30% (from March 2012)/Jobless Claims: 385,000 (up 28,000)

IN A NUTSHELL: "Recent weakening in the job numbers may be hinting that the expected tax increase/sequestration slowdown is starting."

INDICATOR: March ADP Employment Estimates

KEY DATA: ADP: +158,000: Small: 74,000; Medium: 37,000; Large: 47,000

IN A NUTSHELL: "Job growth may have slowed a bit but it doesn't look like it is falling apart."

INDICATOR: March Supply Managers’ Manufacturing Index

KEY DATA: ISM (Manufacturing): 51.3 (down 2.9 points); New Orders: down 6.4 points: Production: down 5.4 points: Employment: up

IN A NUTSHELL: “With the tax increases and sequestration-driven spending reductions starting to kick in, some of the projected negative impacts may be starting to show up.”

INDICATOR: February Income and Spending

KEY DATA: Consumption: +0.7 percent; Inflation Adjusted: +0.3 percent; Disposable Income: +1.1 percent

IN A NUTSHELL: “The improving job market is overcoming tax increases, allowing incomes and spending to rise.”

INDICATOR: Fourth Quarter GDP (final revision)/Jobless Claims

KEY DATA: GDP: 0.4 percent Jobless Claims: 357,000 (up 16,000)

IN A NUTSHELL: “Rising jobless claims are never good but this may just be the usual volatility not a sign that sequestration and tax increases are starting to eat into growth.”

In a Nutshell: "Better growth but more fiscal restraint means the Fed will keep the pedal to the metal."

Rate Decision: Fed funds rate maintained at a range between 0% and 0.25%

The Federal Reserve completed its March two-day meeting and as expected maintained all the policies it has had in place for quite a while. The funds rate will remain close to zero and asset purchases will continue to be used to keep down Treasury and mortgage rates. How long the policy will be kept in place will be determined by the economy. As long as the unemployment rates remains above 6.5% and the inflation rate is below 2.5%, the Fed will keep pushing as hard as possible. Indeed, in the Fed's survey of when policy will be altered, which is released four times a year, fourteen of the nineteen members (Board Governors and regional bank presidents) don't expect that the funds rate will be increased until 2015 or later. Only one believes it could occur this year.

INDICATOR: February Retail Sales/Import and Export Prices

KEY DATA: Retail Sales: +1.1%; Excluding Vehicles: +1%/Import Prices: +1.1%; Non-Oil: 0%

IN A NUTSHELL: "At least so far, the increase in taxes has had minimal impact on household spending, showing that the economy retains a lot of momentum."

INDICATOR: February Employment Report

KEY DATA: Payrolls: +236,000; Private Sector: +246,000; Unemployment Rate: 7.7% (down 0.2 percentage point)

IN A NUTSHELL: "So far so good as rising taxes and sequestration concerns have yet to kill the economy."

INDICATOR: January Trade Deficit/Weekly Jobless Claims

KEY DATA: Deficit: $44.4 billion ($6.3 billion wider)/Claims: 340,000 (down 7,000)

IN A NUTSHELL: "While the widening trade deficit is a worry, the real story is the labor market, which if you believe the claims numbers, is getting better by the week."

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