KEY DATA: Confidence: down 1.3 points; Expectations: down 5.1 points; Current Conditions: up 4.4 points
IN A NUTSHELL: "Confidence has been shaken a touch but not nearly as much as might have been expected given the recent economic data."
INDICATOR: January Consumer Price Index, Real Earnings and Weekly Jobless Claims
KEY DATA: CPI: +0.1%; Excluding Food and Energy: +0.1%/Real Earnings: +0.1%/Claims: 336,000 (down 3,000)
IN A NUTSHELL: "Some Fed members may be worried about inflation but from the look of things, those concerns seem well into the future."
INDICATOR: January Housing Starts and Producer Prices
KEY DATA: Starts: -16.0%; Permits: -5.4%/PPI: +0.2%; Food: +1.0%
IN A NUTSHELL: "The winter froze not only people, but builders and vegetables as well."
INDICATOR: January Industrial Production and Import/Export Prices
KEY DATA: IP: -0.3%; Manufacturing: -0.8%/Imports: +0.1%; Nonfuel: +0.3%; Exports: +0.2%; Farm: -0.5%
IN A NUTSHELL: "The current economic slowdown, that hopefully can be blamed on the weather, is widespread."
INDICATOR: January Retail Sales and Weekly Jobless Claims
KEY DATA: Sales: -0.4%; Excluding Vehicles: 0.0%/ Claims: 339,000 (up 8,000)
IN A NUTSHELL: "Is anyone really surprised that the rotten weather caused shoppers to abandon the malls in droves?"
INDICATOR: January Employment Report
KEY DATA: Payrolls: +113,000; Private Sector: +142,000; Unemployment Rate: 6.6% (down from 6.7%)
IN A NUTSHELL: "Who knows what the weather did to hiring in January so we need to, umm, chill, before we overreact to the disappointing job gains."
KEY DATA: ISM (Manufacturing): 51.3 (-5.2 points); Orders: 51.2 (-13.2 points); Production: 54.8 (-6.9 points) NOTE: Over 50 means growing
IN A NUTSHELL: "If I have to choose which of these two explanation, a collapse in the economy or the logical result of the polar vortex, that best explains the cratering of orders in January, I'll take the weather."