Global cooling? Look at the numbers | Philly

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Monday, October 26, 2009

Global cooling? Look at the numbers

While it's amazing to consider that there's still a huge bloc of people bending over backwards to deny the reality of global warming, there sure are - and these people have most recently latched onto a throwaway line in the contrarian-statistics anthology Super Freakonomics to bolster their pollyanna worldview.

The world isn't warming, it's cooling, goes this argument. Just look at the (temperature) numbers. Ignore the ice sheets melting, the kids swimming at the North Pole, the weather patterns and dozens of other indicators and just look at the numbers.

Well, the Associated Press took the deniers at their word and just looked at the numbers. The news organization had two independent statisticians look at only the numbers involved in global temperatures over various periods of time, from nine to ten to eleven to thirty to 130 years, without telling them what the numbers represented. In other words, a blind study, to remove the influence of any bias on the parts of the humans examining the data.

The statisticians found an upward trend to the numbers in all cases - except if you start following the data exactly in 1998, one of the hottest years, if not the hottest year, ever, in which case you can get a small downward trend. But notably, starting in either 1997 or 1999 gives you an upward trend, i.e. warming. And to reiterate, neither of the statisticians found the ten-years-after-1998 aberration to contradict the overall pattern of upward movement in the numbers.

Though it will obviously take a while before the climate-change deniers come around, they're only hurting their own cause - because everything they spout about "cooling" trends is just a bunch of hot air.

Posted by Vance Lehmkuhl @ 4:50 PM Permalink | File Under: Tech | | Trends | 10 comments

Comments

Posted 05:24 PM, 10/26/2009

Mark Glaeser

Wanna help global warming? Stop supporting huge shopping centers and, instead, patronize mom & pop stores. Stop using those stupid water bottles. Turn off the AC and sweat a little bit. Turn down the heat and wear a sweater. Stop buying useless junk. Live in a neat little place instead of that oversized McMansion. For that maqtter, stop going to fast food joints and make it at home. Remember, people can make it better - government can only make it worse.

Posted 09:03 PM, 10/26/2009

buggpop

Oh for crying out loud! You're trying to legitamize the foundation of your silly blog by refering to an AP story. There is plenty of junk science out there that would seem more believable than AP stooges crunching numbers. I haven't bought either of these papers in years, they got too weird. Now I discover "Earth to Philly". What is this?!!! Hello elitist nitwits!!! Why do you think nobody buys the paper? You are too far out in left field! I remember the 70's, I was a kid who was scared to death of global cooling and the population boom. I was assured by SOME newspaper articles and SOME television reports that we were going to freeze and starve or starve and freeze. Now I'm waiting to bake or broil or boil in formerly frozen Artic ice. Career hint to all of the "journalists" who contribute to Earth to Philly; stop drinking the kool aid, there are plenty of people willing to read what a talented writer can write. Please think outside the box, what you are doing now is not working.

Posted 10:10 PM, 10/26/2009

VegasDave

I want this guy Vance Lehmkuhl to get on an iceberg, wait for it to melt, and drown.

Posted 10:49 PM, 10/26/2009

pjsz1261

1998....the hottest year EVER! My god. You have eliminated and credibility you might gave had with that statement. How long have we been tracking temperature, Einstein? A couple hundred years? The planet is BILLIONS of years old. Does the phrase "sample size" mean anything to you? Global warming has become a religion. To question it is heresy. Real live scientists are questioning the not only the data, but the causal links to the data. Are you familiar with the concept of cause and effect? Try this. Temps have risen over the last fifty years. Illegal immigration has increased over the last fifty years. Illegal immigration causes global warming! Nancy Pelosi said the debate is over. It must be over.

Posted 07:30 AM, 10/27/2009

lehmkuv

LOL, thanks for illustrating my point, y'all.

Posted 09:23 AM, 10/27/2009

pjsz1261

Which portion of my comment doesn't make sense to you? I'd be happy to explain it for you. Let me guess. Liberal Arts major with a minor in Journalism?

Posted 12:00 PM, 10/27/2009

pj katauskas

Good point, pjsz. And add to your point that much of the global warming "conclusions" supposedly ending the debate are based on modelling, e.i., extrapolating incomplete data using assumptions that may or may not exist in the future. It's clearly a phenomenon worthy of further study but let's not make major policy and legislative decisions based on current "conclusions," which any apolitical scientist will tell are still worth questioning.

Comment removed.

Posted 11:59 PM, 10/27/2009

buggpop

Clearly nobody is paying attention to earth to philly. The concept of the blog is silly. It's based on junk science that the writer doesn't bother to site. Instead he refers to an AP story that paid statisticians to report a result that apparently the AP thinks is true. Being a middle aged white guy, I feel silly writing this but....goodnite y'all!

Comment removed.

10 comments

About Earth to Philly

Earth to Philly is a weblog focusing on earth-conscious technology, trends and ideas, from a Daily News perspective. We look at the "green" aspects of your home, business, food, transportation, style, policy, gadgets and artwork. If you have a Philly-related story, let us know about it!

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Vance Lehmkuhl looks at topics like eco-conscious eating, public transportation and fuel-efficient driving from his perspective as a vegetarian, a daily SEPTA bus rider and a hybrid driver, as well as noting the occasional wacky trend or product.

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Jonathan Takiff will be blogging mainly about consumer electronics - those things that we love to use and that suck too much energy. He'll spotlight green-conscious gizmos made in a responsible fashion, both in terms of materials used and the energy it takes to run them.

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In addition to these updates from our newsroom bloggers, watch for an occasional feature, Dumpster Diver Dispatches, from Philadelphia's original "green" community of artists, the Dumpster Divers. You'll learn about creative ways to reuse and recycle while you reduce, and about the artists who are making little masterpieces from what others throw out.