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Tuesday, December 2, 2008
It’s been a few days during which I did not blog, but rather pondered on the current state of the Philadelphia 76ers (okay, I also watched a good amount of football). Perhaps you did a little bit of both, too.
 
Now we’re here in the Windy City, aka Chicago, for a rematch against the average Chicago Bulls. If it feels like just yesterday that the Sixers lost to the Bulls at the Wachovia Center – getting outscored 33-11 in the third quarter – it’s because, basically, it was. It was Sunday. Round No. 1 of Bulls vs. Sixers: Final score 103-92. Round No. 2 – yes, back-to-back games – is tonight at 8:30 EST.
 
This afternoon at 3:30 we’ll have a Live Chat. If you have a few minutes, click here: Sixers Chat.
 
We talked last week about the tough stretch ahead. At that time, the impending opponents we discussed were the Orlando Magic, Boston Celtics, Los Angeles Lakers, Detroit Pistons, and Cleveland Cavaliers. I don’t remember the Bulls’ games being a hot topic of discussion. But here we are. And the truth is, with the way the Sixers are currently playing, no game is a should-win. Especially not a game on the Bulls home court. Especially not when that Bulls team just beat the Sixers at the Wachovia Center and once held a 19-point lead.
 
Nope. The truth, right now, is that the Sixers aren’t even average. They’re below average. At 7-10, they are three games (Bulls, Lakers, Pistons) from the quarter-way mark for the season. Realistically, the Sixers will be 7-13 or 8-12 at that time. That’s on pace for 28-32 wins. Hardly what we expected from this team way back in September (that seems like a long time ago).
 
But now the question changes from, “Do these kinks – these struggles – just need time?” to, “What changes must be made.”
 
Here is the first step: Change the lineup. It isn’t working. Find minutes for Royal Ivey, Kareem Rush, and Donyell Marshall. Find more minutes for Marreese Speights.
 
My proposed lineup: Andre Miller, Willie Green, Andre Iguodala, Thaddeus Young, and Elton Brand.
 
I don’t necessarily believe Samuel Dalembert is the only problem, I just think removing him from the lineup offers the Sixers more room for improvement. First, it gets Willie Green in the lineup. And he has brought energy – something the Sixers have lacked – through the first part of the season. Second, it moves Iguodala to small forward, a switch that might help spark his game. He has struggled, no question. Young proved last season he could play power forward. He isn’t out of position at power forward. Let Iguodala go back to small forward.
 
You might say: How will this help? The starting unit hasn’t even been the problem. True, it hasn’t. If you look back over the last 10 games, the Sixers have started strong. It has been the rotation off the bench that has given back leads. And my answer? It doesn’t matter. If you shift the lineup even slightly, it alters everyone’s role. It forces everyone to refocus and find their new niche within the rotation. Even the starters must adjust – even if it’s just one swapped starter – to the new chemistry. Starting games with Willie Green on the floor, Elton Brand as the only big man, and Andre Iguodala at small forward, shifts perspective across the board. Andre Miller is now working with Green in the backcourt, Green can allow Iguodala to slash more, etc. etc. Even the first guys off the bench – Lou Williams, Marreese Speights, Dalembert – will have to refocus. Speights might come in with Dalembert for Young and Brand. Lou might play more minutes with Miller.
 
I know many Sixers fans are calling for a more drastic change: A trade, the acquisition of a shooting guard, and a few other demands on this team, its coaches, and the front office.
 
I think there are a few moves to be made on the court before heading down that road.
 
Until later …
 
--Kate
 
 
 
 
Posted by Kate Fagan @ 11:01 AM  Permalink | 16 comments
16
Comments   
Posted 12:43 PM, 12/02/2008
hugh
I agree with you that the lineup needs to be changed, but I think Speights should replace Sam and they should put Rush in at the 2. Iggy to 3 and Thad to 6th man. I would rather he be the primary option off the bench than the 3rd option as a starter.
Posted 01:00 PM, 12/02/2008
JBP
Kate, exactly! Plus I would have them trap from the tip-off to force them to remember WHO THEY ARE! I would also have Reggie and Royal as the first two off the bench to reinforce DEFENSE! I would work Sam and Lou in after that. By the way, Lou is "squeezing" his jumper instead of a flowing release...TELL HIM WILL YOU!
Posted 01:16 PM, 12/02/2008
K,M
Not a bad proposal, Kate. It seems to fit with Mo's preference for smaller lineups, and allows Igoudala to play his position(My hope at the end of last year was Thaddeus would have a late growth spurt and put on about 30lbs...) I think playing Lou with Miller is important - that was our 4th quarter back court last year, and off the top of my head i can't say that i've seen it at all this year. Lou needs Miller's discipline to balance out his play. Hugh, i wouldn't mind seeing Speights start either, but i don't know that Rush has really shown that he's consistent enough. I never thought i'd hear myself saying this, but Willie has been our most consistent shooting 2 gaurd this year. I'd actually say at this point that we go to Marshall to spread the floor rather than Rush, who can't seem to buy a bucket lately... ******* Kate, I've been trying not to say anything either lately, working on the "If you can't say anything nice..." principle, but i will say that i think we'll ultimately see a roster change this year. There are good pieces there, but they just dont seem to fit together IMO. I'm holding my peace for now, but i've got a few ideas up my sleeve...
Posted 01:41 PM, 12/02/2008
127sixer59
kate: the proposed change makes sense, either with your line-up or some variation. having young and iguodala at the 3 & 4 should allow the starters to run from the start. i just hope it wouldn't lead to giving up our usual rebounding edge w/o dalembert starting off (and usually he pounds the boards early). and williams is in serious need of coaching/descipline. it's really inexplicable how he can play so poorly-his descision making is beyond terrible. hugh: i understand the point regarding young but combining him with brand and iguodala allow all three to be offensive options. k,m: agree about rush and marshall-marshall should see some real minutes. he knows how to play and is our best shooter-what's the issue with not playing him!? just b/c he may not be the future?! kate: there is no reason this team cannot be a running/transition team with brand-other teams with bigger/slower 4's/5's have done it with ultimate success. and brand can be an effective trailer. we are near that mythical 20th game and they are just as inconsistent as they started the season. at some point, the sixers need to shake things up either with starters/rotation or coaching. unless these players aren't as good as we think, which shouldn't be the case after what they accomplished last year and then added brand and other components that should elevate the team.
Posted 02:14 PM, 12/02/2008
tktk
Ed is supposed to have a press conference addressing the (sorry) state of the team. Any ideas on what we can expect?
Posted 02:23 PM, 12/02/2008
Statman
The Dalembert/Speights question is an interesting one. According to 82games.com, the Sixers score 99.4 points per 100 possessions (pp100p) with Speights on the floor, one of the highest marks on the team (no regulars are higher). Sam's number is 93.6. The problem is that when Speights is in, the Sixers give up 105.6 pp100p, one of the worst marks on the team and MUCH worse than Sam's number of 89.7 (one of the best on the team). It's not a fluke either -- Speights gets a few blocks and draws some charges, but he's often out of position and doesn't rebound particularly well on the defensive glass. I'm convinced that the real problem on this team right now is the bench, even though it's easier to point fingers at Iguodala, Dalembert, or Miller. It was a 5-point game (71-66) on Sunday in the 3rd when Cheeks took out Miller, Brand, Young, and Green all around the same time (with Iguodala already out because of foul trouble), leaving a lineup of Ivey, Lou, Speights, Evans, and Rush. The Bulls, who still had D-Rose in the game, quickly went on a 12-0 run to end the quarter up 17. Whatever Cheeks does, he needs to think about his rotations so he does NOT leave a powerless, defenseless lineup out there for long stretches of time. My suggestion: work out the rotations to start the 2nd and 4th quarters with Iguodala, Young, Speights, Lou, and Ivey and get that unit to press on D and run on O. This means sending either Iguodala or Young to the bench and resting the other at the end of the 1st/3rd, letting Brand and Miller play most of the 1st/3rd. Thoughts?
Posted 02:34 PM, 12/02/2008
tktk
I agree with your suggestion about leaving more starters out there at all times. To make this happen they whould give some of the bench players (Lou, Speights, Rush or Marshall) spot minutes with the starters. That will give the added benefit of getting better shooters on the floor.
Posted 03:17 PM, 12/02/2008
127sixer59
statman: well-reasoned points. what is willimas' impact on the points for/against? he is just playing poor basketball at the moment? allowing brand & miller to play most of the 1st/3rd could be stablizing. i still believe marshall needs to see some time to make defenses be honest.
Posted 03:45 PM, 12/02/2008
Statman
127: good question, Lou's most illuminating stats are on-court/off-court. When he's on-court, the Sixers are outscored by 7.2 pp100p. The only worse players are Marshall (hardly plays), Evans (who has been completely ineffective), and Ratliff (largely skewed by the Boston game). When Lou is off-court, the Sixers outscore opponents by 3.4 pp100p. So Lou's "net" is -10.6 pp100p. You might be interested to know that all the starters have positive values for this on-court/off-court metric, from Thad's +2.5 to Iguodala's +19.6. Conversely, all the bench players have negative values. This reinforces what Kate said (and we have all repeated) about the bench being the problem.
Posted 04:29 PM, 12/02/2008
K,M
Statman, agree that we see too many starters on the bench at once too often. I do not like this "hockey line" sort of rotation at all. I'm not sure that you can put much faith in Marshall's on/off court - I'm just going off the top of my head, but i doubt if he's got more than 20 minutes for the season, and most of that is garbage time. I do know that when he's been in, he hits the three reliably. Interesting observations about Speights. I think to a certain extent poor defense is to be expected from a guy who didn't spend much time in college & jumps right into an NBA rotation, & i think he will come around to be a better all around player than sam, but obviously that doesn't help us now. Interesting that the bench is the issue, since starting the season everyone (myself included) seemed to think the bench was solid and deep. Have to think a good portion of this comes back to going long stretches without any, or with just one or two starters in. Very tough to keep a flow going when you are essentially playing two different teams over the course of the game.
Posted 04:46 PM, 12/02/2008
Statman
KM: agree, it's been a surprise to me too how bad the bench has been. A lot of that has to be attributed to Lou's shocking regression; he was the guy last year who gave the team instant offense and got the other team into the penalty early in the 2nd/4th quarters by drawing fouls. Last year they had a lot of success by starting the 2nd/4th quarters with Lou, Thad, Iguodala, Carney, and Evans. A big part of that success was because Iguodala/Thad/Carney could switch everything on D. So, my suggested lineup to start the 2nd/4th (Iguodala/Thad/Ivey/Lou/Speights) is meant to resurrect that "high energy" lineup. Believe it or not, Mo did try something similar in the 2nd quarter of the Bulls game (putting Iguodala in with the bench), and it worked for a while -- that lineup got the lead up to 15 before the lead started to dissipate. I do believe that Iguodala needs more time on the court when Brand is not on the court; Iguodala has been too passive (i.e., shoots too many jumpers) when Brand is on the court.
Posted 05:39 PM, 12/02/2008
CincySixer
a brand/young frontcourt is very small, but iguadala is not a 2. if we can acquire a 2, move thad to the bench and still get him 30 minutes and majority of shots with the second team would be best IMO
Posted 06:18 PM, 12/02/2008
127sixer59
statman: thanks for the williams breakdown on-court/off-court! perhaps part of the problem with the bench players' negative values is they are essentially playing as a unit for a fairly high percentage of the time (or at least with other bench players). integrating them at various/more efficient times. k,m: don't know what the stats are but if iguodala and brand need to have less time together, that's fine if it helps the team perform to the anticipated levels. it is strange if these two players can't function together-i hope that's not ultimately the case. it stil seems somewhat psychological.
Posted 12:34 AM, 12/03/2008
hanwayl
Kate, even though there's no word out there officially, how healthy is Sammy D? And is health an element of his poor play since the beginning of the regular season? My friend who's watched more games than me so far pointed out that Sammy was hurt in the training camp, and appeared to leave the floor several times during the regular games due to discomfort/minor injuries. So, is Sammy hurt, or is he just playing bad? Keep up the good work!
Posted 01:12 AM, 12/03/2008
Kfagan
hanwayl, Sammy did have a knee injury during the preseason. At the beginning of the season he said it was still bothering him. But as far as this injury being the reason for his slip in minutes, etc.? No, I don't believe that to be the case.
Posted 02:06 AM, 12/03/2008
srvdove
Have to agree with the post and the comments on here. This is after the game tonight which we won and the 4th quarter/OT lineup was different. Speights saw a lot of minutes and Thad was on the bench in favor of Green. Maybe this is a wrong impression but it seems once the team struggles...then you have multiple problems to overcome. Lack of confidence and low morale on the court leads to missed shots, bumbling turnovers and poor passing/communication. I gotta believe that confidence is the major factor for Lou. The team seems to easily get into the "here we go again mode". I tend to think that right now these things are as much of a factor as anything else. What this team really needs is some games of all out energy and aggressiveness that turn into wins. The team has talent, so shaking things up might get things going. I wonder what kind of game Sammy might have after sitting out late in the game tonight.
About Deep Sixer Blog
Kate Fagan was, until recently, the all-time leading three-pointer shooter in the University of Colorado women’s basketball program. Her former teammates say that’s because she was also the all-time leading three-point taker in program history. Somewhere along the way, journalism became her passion, and there are those who say that she still likes taking her shots. This is her second season as the 76ers beat writer for The Inquirer. She brings a rare combination of first-hand basketball insight, writing ability and an attitude that fits perfectly in her new hometown.
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