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What Georgia's special election could mean for Pa., N.J. Republicans — and Trump

The tight contest north of Atlanta was widely seen as an early test of the voter response to the Trump administration, and hints at potentially tough races coming for Republicans in the Philadelphia suburbs.

WASHINGTON – It could have been worse for Republicans in Georgia on Tuesday night, but the outcome of a special election for a reliably conservative House seat might still be a warning shot to President Trump and GOP lawmakers in the Philadelphia area.

In the Peach State, Democratic newcomer Jon Ossoff won just under 50 percent of the vote in an 18-candidate contest, nearly claiming a seat that Republicans have held for more than 30 years.

The GOP is favored to keep it in a runoff, but the tight contest was widely seen as an early test of the voter response to the Trump administration, and hints at potentially tough races coming for Republicans in the Philadelphia suburbs. (Though that argument comes with major caveats — more below).

Georgia's Sixth District, which includes a swath of Atlanta's northern suburbs, is full of the kind of affluent, highly educated voters who have traditionally voted Republican but recoiled from Trump. He performed poorly there last year — and did even worse in similar-looking Pennsylvania districts based in Chester and Delaware Counties.

That gives Republicans in the Philly area even less room for error, according to a new analysis from the Cook Political Report. Its biannual report rates congressional districts based on how strongly they lean Democratic or Republican, compared with the country as a whole.

A deep-blue seat such as Bob Brady's in Philadelphia — where Hillary Clinton won 80 percent of the vote — is rated D+31, for example. The Georgia seat, with a more modest Republican tilt, is rated R+8, based on the results of the last two presidential elections.

The margins for Republicans are much slimmer around Philly.

Congressman Pat Meehan's Delaware County-based Seventh District seat? It's rated R+1, and is one of the 25 most evenly split districts in the country, according to the Cook analysis. In South Jersey, Frank LoBiondo's Atlantic City-based district is another in the top 25.

Not far behind is the Chester County-based Sixth District, represented by Ryan Costello, rated R+2. Trump narrowly lost in both Costello's and Meehan's districts, falling short in territory Mitt Romney narrowly won in 2012. That makes Costello and Meehan two of just 23 Republicans sitting in districts where voters rejected the candidate who became president. A third — Leonard Lance — is in another wealthy, highly educated Central Jersey district.

Trump won the Georgia district, but barely. He lagged well behind Romney's 24 percentage point victory there.

And that was before Trump's election energized Democratic activists, who hope to use next year's congressional races to send a message to the president and GOP. In the Georgia contest, Ossoff raised more than $8 million as donations from liberals poured in from around the country.

Locally, Democrats are holding regular rallies outside Republican congressmen's offices in Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Costello and Meehan have already each drawn several potential challengers hoping to unseat them.

Meanwhile, a Pew survey released Monday found that Trump has taken a toll on the GOP brand: 40 percent of those polled had a positive opinion of the Republican Party, down from 47 percent before Trump took office. Approval of the president's performance stands at 39 percent, against 54 percent who disapprove of his work, Pew found.

To Democrats, that all adds up to opportunity, especially on the relatively balanced terrain around Philadelphia.

Of course, there are limits to how much we should read into the results of a handful of special elections more than 18 months before the main 2018 races. This race was different than the traditional contests we'll see next year: It had the national spotlight to itself and a field of 11 Republicans competing for conservative votes.

Special elections are also often poor indicators of wider results, according to Princeton political historian Julian Zelizer.

"The history of special elections reveals that just because voters go one way in one place at a given time, they might act very differently at a national level in the months ahead," Zelizer wrote on CNN.

And much can change over time. In late 2013, for example, a number of local Republicans appeared to be in trouble after the GOP angered voters during a government shutdown — only for that issue to quickly fade away as President Barack Obama's administration botched the rollout of his health law.

Democrats have made noise for years about capturing seats in the Philly area, only to fall well short. Costello and Meehan won big last year.

A new poll from Brown University even suggested Wednesday that Trump may be gaining support in Chester County as Republicans who rejected him last year "come home" and support their party's president. (Though opposition to the president there is also fierce.)

At least two local officials seem to have less to worry about.

Brady is one. And Rep. Dwight Evans, a freshman whose district covers Philadelphia and parts of Montco, is in a district rated D+40 — the fourth-bluest in the country.

You can follow Tamari on Twitter or email him at jtamari@phillynews.com.