Jonathan Tamari / Inquirer Washington Bureau
WASHINGTON – A Quinnipiac University poll shows Democrat Cory Booker with a 14 point lead over Republican Steve Lonegan with one day to go until New Jersey's special election for Senate.
The Q poll, out Tuesday, falls in between surveys released Monday that had Booker up by 22 (according to Rutgers-Eagleton) or 10 (according to Monmouth University).
The good part is, when the votes are counted Wednesday, odds are someone will be right.
Quinnipiac has Booker up 54-40 among likely voters, almost the same as the 53-41 split the poll registered two weeks ago.
Booker has a huge lead among women: 58-36, and a 50-45 edge among men. Independents are split 46-46.
Neither candidate has become more likable, but it appears that Booker's sustained attacks on Lonegan's conservative views are having an impact.
Lonegan's unfavorable ratings are up to 36 percent, from 22 percent in Quinnipiac's Sept. 24 poll. Lonegan's favorable rating is also 36 percent, up just a point from late September.
Booker's unfavorable ratings have grown to 35 percent, from 30 in late September, but 53 percent of likely voters still view him in a positive light, the same as on Sept. 24.
The special election is Wednesday.
As the candidates race to the finish, both men have seized on the government shutdown in DC to bolster arguments for why he is the better choice. The Inquirer's Andrew Seidman breaks down their claims in dueling stops in South Jersey Monday.
The Quinnipiac poll Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,696 likely voters in the special Senate election and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.4 percentage points, The survey was done from Oct. 10-14. Live interviewers called land lines and cell phones.
You can follow Tamari on Twitter or email him at jtamari@phillynews.com.