WASHINGTON – The South Jersey race to replace U.S. Rep. Jon Runyan (R. N.J.) is dead even, according to a Stockton Polling Institute survey released Monday afternoon.
The poll found that Democrat Aimee Belgard and Republican Tom MacArthur each have support from 42.2 percent of likely voters surveyed in the district. Another 12.8 percent were undecided and the rest said they would support someone else, no one, or refused to answer. The race is shaping up as the most competitive House contest in the Philadelphia region. Runyan is retiring.
"A congressional race this close will continue to draw national attention," said Daniel J. Douglas, director of the William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy, which includes the polling institute. "The candidates will be fighting over a relatively small number of undecided voters from now to Election Day."
Congressional races tend to draw little independent public polling, but this survey shows why national Democrats are investing heavily there – the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee in August made this district one of the two where it launched its initial television ads of the fall campaign.
As other competitive races in the moderate Philadelphia suburbs seem to tilt toward Republicans, the South Jersey contest may be one of Democrats' few chances in the nation to seize a GOP-held seat in a year that mostly looks good for the right.
The district, which includes large parts of Burlington and Ocean counties, has typically been held by Republicans, but President Obama won it twice, giving Democrats hope that they can succeed. With no incumbent, Belgard, a Burlington County Freeholder, has hammered MacArthur over his roots in North Jersey and career in the insurance industry, claiming he took advantage of natural disasters to make money.
MacArthur, a former mayor in Randolph, Morris County, launched a network TV ad Monday, calling his opponent "dishonest politician Aimee Belgard" and blasting her for the rising taxes in Edgewater Park while she was a councilwoman there.
The Stockton poll surveyed 606 likely voters. It used live interviewers on both landlines and cell phones from Sept. 12-14, 2014. The poll's margin of error is 4 percentage points.
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