Posted: Friday, August 19, 2011, 1:49 AM | 10 comments |
 

The Mayberry Post
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(H. Rumph Jr. / AP)

A few weeks back, a commenter suggested looking at John Mayberry's numbers projected out to the same number of plate appearances that Ryan Howard had. Since Howard sat out Thursday with a cramped hand and Mayberry homered (seen rounding the bases at left), we thought this was as good a time as any.

And, as it turns out, Mayberry's projected numbers are very close to the stats that Howard has actually put up. More than anything, that tells us it just might be time to give JM Jr. a chance to validate those projections.

     Mayberry       Mayberry    Howard
  Actual Projected Actual
Plate App. 194 519 519
At-Bats 179 479 451
Runs 22 59 66
Hits 47 126 115
Doubles 13 35 36
Triples 0 0 1
Home Runs 10 27 26
RBI 34 91 95
Walks 13 35 57
Strikeouts 38 102 135
Batting Avg. .263 .263 .255
Slugging Pct.     .503 .505 .490
Posted by Bob Vetrone Jr. @ 1:49 AM  Permalink | 10 comments
10
Comments   
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 6:32 AM, 08/19/2011
    This is an analysis that Charlie Manuel should be making, and these stats don't even take account Mayberry's stolen bases.
    — catdog53
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 10:22 AM, 08/19/2011
    I seriously doubt Charlie has EVER performed an analysis that was anything more than "A gut feeling".
    Charlie will not replace Ibanez until, or unless he becomes injured...
    — Phiggles
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 7:06 AM, 08/19/2011
    I don't know if it can be explained, but Mayberry also seems to be able to tag real good pitchers- a very valuable skill come playoff time. I think he has hit more off of good pitchers this year than Howard has just in his few opportunities (Hudson, J. Sanchez, Kennedy, A. Sanchez). The only real scrubs he has tagged are Michael Dunn and maybe Barry Zito is a scrub now. The rest were front line starters or relievers. He has also hit more HRs on 2 strike counts than Howard has (5-to-3 this season). All of this shows a player who has a lot to offer in the tough situations.
    — jtj06
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 7:46 AM, 08/19/2011
    Wheels has great statistics during this same period. a total of 4 million, 320 thousand 622 words during the rain delay last night. And all of them irrelevant.. would someone please cork that mouth
    — stoky
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 10:07 AM, 08/19/2011
    This is pointless. Mayberry is productive when given the chance, but he's not replacing Howard. he should replace Raul. Let's compare his numbers with Raul's.
    — palmyra21
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 10:15 AM, 08/19/2011
    Considering how Mayberry has been jerked around when he was obviously in a significant hot streak, his latest performance not withstanding, should be proof positive, that he deserves to play every night.
    Could anyone imagine any currently contending teams, that would allow a talent like this, ride a bench?
    — Phiggles
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 12:51 PM, 08/19/2011
    Palmyra21-moron-the point is NOT for him to replace Ryan Howard but to show his production if he played every day and how those numbers would compare to the Phillies top slugger. dope.....
    — kingofpoker
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 3:15 PM, 08/19/2011
    JMJ is by far a better base runner, and better fielder at his position, as well as having a better and more accurate arm----better in these skills than both Ibanez and Howard. This year keep finding playing time for him (against righties too ), and next year give him left field. D. Brown has a long way to go, if ever.
    — supernova
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 3:39 PM, 08/19/2011
    Good analysis. He is earning his way into the line-up. I like Rauuuuul but this kid will make him expendable.
    — jjthree
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 8:39 PM, 08/19/2011
    I like what Mayberry has been doing, but I think these straight-line projections are a little rosy. First, more playing time means more fatigue and more chances for the kinds of niggling injuries that hurt performance. Mayberry is almost always playing fresh; Howard, like the other everyday starters, isn't. Second, more playing time means more at-bats against right-handed pitchers, against whom Mayberry still has some trouble, although less than he did the last couple of years. I doubt that you would actually get the kind of production out of Mayberry that the projections seem to indicate. But as others have said, let's give him a chance to show what he can do on a more regular basis. That's the only way to know.
    — Dave Clemens


10 comments
About Bob Vetrone Jr.

Boop – who goes by Bob Vetrone Jr. when he is undercover or paying bills – has been at the Daily News since 1982, after working for five years at the Philadelphia Bulletin up to its closing. Along with helping to build the sports scoreboards most nights, he has had great input into the papers’ special sports pullouts – March Madness, Broad Street Run, Record Breakers, Greatest Moments – as well as its day-to-day, award-winning event coverage.

A 1980 graduate of North Catholic, he took some evening college courses. Those lasted right up until the first conflict with a Big 5 doubleheader.

His favorite books growing up were the NBA Guide and the Baseball Encyclopedia, which was, for all intents and purposes, the Internet before there was an Internet.

He has been immersed in sports statistics since the early 70s, when his father (long-time sports writer, broadcaster and the Daily News’ Buck The Bartender), would take him into the Bulletin newsroom overnight in the summer and let him update the Phillies statistics in a little, black spiral notebook. But things have changed tremendously in the decades since … He now uses a big, black spiral notebook. Email him at vetronb@phillynews.com.


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