Posted: Monday, March 2, 2009, 2:28 PM | 16 comments |
 

Villanova in Philly for NCAA?
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Among all the Division I schools in the Philadelphia area, only Villanova is a lock to make the NCAA basketball tournament at the moment. Wildcats fans would like nothing better to go with that invitation than a home date at the Wachovia Center when the city hosts first- and second-rounds games on March 19 and 21.

Our good friend Joe Lunardi over at ESPN. com -- a man who has made a living out of predicting the unpredictable -- doesn't think that's going to happen. At the moment, he has Villanova as a 3rd-seed in the tournament, but placed in the Midwest regional with opening games in Miami (which is pretty standard NCAA geography).

Things could change, starting with Monday's game at Notre Dame, which can probably only hurt the Wildcats. They finish the regular season at home Thursday against Providence and the Big East tournament is next week in New York. A long run there -- or an unfortunately short one -- will affect the seeding, too. Villanova's conference tournament hopes would be helped by finishing among the top four in league standings, thus earning a bye to the Thursday quarterfinal round.

For that to happen, the Wildcats must win a tiebreaker with Marquette, if the two finish with identical records. The most logical path for that to happen is Villanova winning its final two conference games and Marquette splitting its final two, specifically with a loss Wednesday at Pittsburgh.

As for getting to the Wachovia Center in the first round, if Lunardi's seeding holds up, Nova would have to bump ahead of Wake Forest or perhaps Duke in the tournament committee's eyes. That might take a run to the Big East final and a good showing there. For now, it's all guesswork, but a home game doesn't seem that likely for Villanova.

In the current bracketology, the ACC and Big East lead the conferences with eight selections each, and 30 of the 34 at-large spots in the tournament will be going to schools from the "big six" conferences -- ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10 and SEC. One of the exceptions is an at-large bid for an Atlantic 10 school, although at the moment it goes to Dayton, as a No. 9 seed.

Temple could have a good conference tournament run and jump into the mix. The Owls would probably have to make the championship to get a bid, however. As for St. Joe's and LaSalle, either would have to win the conference tournament and get the automatic bid to be in the NCAA this season. As least, that's the way it looks now.
Posted by BOB FORD @ 2:28 PM  Permalink | 16 comments
16
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  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 5:39 PM, 03/02/2009
    Bob, no enlightening Eagle's thoughts today?
    — Earl J
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 7:54 PM, 03/02/2009
    I'm afraid to tell you what I think about my brother colleague at the Daily News. So, I guess the answer is "no," except to say that the apostrophe should have gone after the "s" and not the "e."
    — Bob Ford
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 9:14 PM, 03/02/2009
    Actually, Bob, no apostrophe is necessary. The 'thoughts' Earl writes about are yours, not those of the 'Eagle' or 'Eagles.' Couldn't help myself.
    — foley99
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 9:37 PM, 03/02/2009
    Loonardi is a joke.
    — There He Is
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 10:02 PM, 03/02/2009
    Foley, good catch. Earl, I apologize. We both stink. THI, Joe is pretty good at this stuff. He and I used to work together and we're friends, so I'm not impartial
    — Bob Ford
  • Comment removed.
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 9:24 AM, 03/03/2009
    Looonardi is clueless. And and also a plagiarist. Steals everything from Jerry Palm.
    — Gatto
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 9:34 AM, 03/03/2009
    The latest Sports Illustrated bracket DOES HAVE Villanova playing in Philly the first two rounds.
    — chrissmith
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 10:31 AM, 03/03/2009
    Harry--the problem is that Villanova lays the beatdown on everybody in the Big 5. They have crushed the moral of fans from the other schools. Sad but true.
    — somertonspartan
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 10:36 AM, 03/03/2009
    Until the brackets come out on March Madness Sunday, it's all just speculation. Regardless, the good news is the Cats will be in the Tournament, playing somewhere as a high seed. Temple, St. Joe's, LaSalle and Drexel will be praying for a NIT home game. Penn should just pray! In the words of a great frontrunner, " Let's go Wildcats."
    — RJM16
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 12:42 PM, 03/03/2009
    How hard is it to predict the unpredictable? I think a casual sports fan can do very good at this. 31 of the spots are automatic bids. So Lanerdi gets those spots correct every year. Of the 34 at large bids I am thinking most college b ball fans can name 31. That is a success rate of 95%. If this guy could tell me who was going to make the tournament with a 95% success rate then I would be impressed. But really he is just organizing data after the conf tournaments have been played and trying to figure out who gets the last 3 or 4 at large bids. Is that really impressive?
    — dmac2002
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 12:45 PM, 03/03/2009
    I was trying to say if he could tell us this info at the start of the season or even now and predict with a 95% rate of success that I would be impressed.
    — dmac2002
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 3:44 PM, 03/03/2009
    It is all pointless speculation until the conference tournaments, but if the Cats are a third-seed and have to leap WF or Duke to get the slot here, that's going to be tough. Will get easier if Pitt beats Marquette and Nova gets a bye to the Big East quarters. I don't think college hoops is dying here. It's just in a lull because there is only one good team. If there were even two, say Temple or St. Joe's was a Top 25 team as well, the landscape would look different.
    — Bob Ford
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 12:02 PM, 03/04/2009
    Blog update!! Blog update!! (So much easier than a new post when you're in a hurry.) If Pitt wins at home against Marquette tonight (Wed.) and Villanova beats Providence tomorrow (Thurs.), Cats get double bye at Big East tournament as one of top four seeds.
    — Bob Ford
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 9:51 AM, 03/05/2009
    the beatings will stop when morale improves. in this case, when the other 5 teams in the city get better, the games will be more competitive. till then the cats will clean up. i'm a cats alum. & long time fan. it was great seeing the games at the palestra & no matter what the records were, either team could will. even though it's good to get wins, i'd like to see better games. as for the seeding in ncaa, phila would be nice, but i think the right matchup is even more important. we can't controll that as much
    — dr feelgoodes


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About Bob Ford
Bob Ford has been writing about Philadelphia sports since 1981, and is still trying to figure it all out. A former beat writer covering the Phillies and the 76ers, Ford became a general sports columnist for the Inquirer in 2003, following in and occasionally falling in the deep footsteps of Bill Lyon, Frank Dolson and many distinguished others. He comes to the Philly.com blogosphere after award-winning success as designer/editor of the fabulous Pen & Pencil Club softball blog. Likes: Palestra, inside-the-park home runs, sunny days. Dislikes: phony people, cloudy days, rewrites.
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