Trump losing to Carson in Iowa
Donald Trump is losing his Iowa mojo, falling behind Ben Carson in the Republican race, according to three straight polls of the first caucus state.
Now it can be told: Iowa is slipping away from developer Donald J. Trump.
A new poll of Iowa Republicans, released Monday, shows Ben Carson has opened a double-digit lead over Trump, reinforcing the findings of two other recent polls that captured the retired neurosurgeon taking the lead in the state that casts the first votes in the presidential campaign.
Trump had held the lead in all Iowa polls for 78 days before the Quinnipiac University and Bloomberg News/Des Moines Register surveys last week put Carson in the lead.
According to the Monday survey from Monmouth University, 32 percent of likely GOP caucus-goers support Carson, while 18 percent back Trump. The rival Republican candidates were tied in the school's August poll of the race.
"Trump's support has eroded in a number of key areas, with the beneficiary being another outside candidate," director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.
The Monmouth poll, which had a margin of error of five percentage points, finds Carson with twice as much support as Trump among evangelical Christian voters, 36 percent to 18 percent. Evangelicals are a key voting bloc in Iowa Republican caucuses, and they cast about 40 percent of the total vote in the state in 2012.
Trump has sought to appeal to religious voters by bringing a bible to rallies and expounding on how much he loves Christmas. He has also raised questions about Carson's Seventh-Day Adventist faith.
Trump brags about his polling numbers, saying they are proof of his qualification to be president. He has said he does not believe the surveys that show him running second in Iowa.
Still, the race in the state remains fluid, Monmouth finds, with just 1 in 5 GOP caucus-goers saying they are completely set on their choice, although this is up from 12 percent. Another 43 percent say they have a strong preference right now, 19 percent have a slight preference, and 18 percent are undecided.
"While the leader board positions have changed, the outsider candidates still dominate this race. The GOP's leadership may hope that an establishment figure will emerge, but that may not happen while their voters remain dissatisfied with the party as a whole," said Murray.
Nearly 6-in-10 (57 percent) of respondents say that the national Republican Party does a bad job representing the concerns of voters like them. Just 32 percent say it does a good job.
In the new Monmouth survey, Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio are running third with 10 percent support each. Jeb Bush has 8 percent. Following are: Carly Fiorina with 5 percent, Rand Paul at 3 percent, Mike Huckabee at 2 percent. Bobby Jindal and John Kasich, each have 2 percent. None of the other five candidates tested, including New Jersey Gov. Christie, topped 1 percent.