Poll finds huge Pa. lead for Trump in GOP primary

Donald Trump has a commanding lead in the upcoming Pennsylvania Republican primary, according to a new Monmouth University Poll, but even a landslide victory might not gain him many delegates given the unusual way the state GOP awards them.

Trump has the support of 44 percent of likely Republican primary voters, compared to 28 percent who back Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and 23 percent who say they intend to vote for Ohio Gov. John Kasich in the April 26 contact.

The survey from the West Long Branch, N.J. school also finds that Kasich, who grew up in a working-class suburb of Pittsburgh, derives no measurable benefit from his Pennsylvania roots.

In western Pennsylvania, from Erie to Pittsburgh, the poll finds Trump at 43 percent, Cruz at 29 percent, and Kasich at 25 percent, a statistically insignificant variation from his statewide total.

Trump's is strongest in the rural areas of the state, from the northeast corner into central Pennsylvania, where he gets 48 percent of the vote compared with 24 percent for Cruz and 20 percent for Kasich.

In the southeast corner of the state in the critical Philadelphia suburbs, Trump is at 40 percent, to 31 percent for Cruz, and Kasich at 23 percent.

Only 17 Pennsylvania delegates are awarded to the statewide winner while 54 delegates are elected by congressional district, and they are not bound to any candidate.

"It looks like Trump should be able to bank the 17 statewide delegates in Pennsylvania.  The real question is how the directly elected district delegates will vote at the convention in July," said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

The GOP candidates are bunched together among voters with college degrees, the poll finds. As in other states, Trump has a huge lead with voters who have no higher degree, at 53 percent support, compared to 26 for Cruz and 16 percent for Kasich

Monmouth's survey was conducted by telephone from April 10 to 12, and results are based on interviews with 303 Pennsylvania voters who say they are likely to vote in the Republican presidential primary.  This sample has a margin of error of +/- 5.6 percentage points.