Poll: Obama leads in Pa., Ohio and Fla. among likely voters
President Obama hits 50 percent mark in crucial swing states PA, OH and FL, Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS poll finds. Middle class v. Rich theme may be working.
Poll: Obama leads in Pa., Ohio and Fla. among likely voters
Thomas Fitzgerald, Inquirer Politics Writer
President Obama leads Republican Mitt Romney with a slim majority of likely voters in each of the crucial battleground states of Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida, according to a Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times poll released Tuesday.
It is the first survey of voters who say they plan to vote, considered a more precise measurement of sentiment than polls of registered voters by Quinnipiac and others, in which the president generally has been running in the high 40s.
Conservative critics zeroed in on the poll's methodology, citing data that suggest that it assumed unrealistically high turnout by Democrats.
The Quinnipiac pollsters, who partnered with the two news organizations, say that Obama has been lifted by strong support for his plan to increase income taxes on higher-income voters. It also may be interpreted as a sign that the Obama campaign’s early advertising onslaught in swing states – a mostly negative drumbeat against Romney’s career as a private-equity tycoon who has parked money in foreign tax havens – may have gained some traction. Republicans and many independent analysts have argued that the attacks are appeals to class resentment, a rarely successful tack in U.S. politics.
In Pennsylvania, Obama tops Romney 53 to 42 percent in the poll; the president leads by a smaller 50 to 44 percent margin in Ohio, and edges Romney 51 percent to 45 percent in Florida.
Support for Obama’s proposal to extend the Bush-era tax rates only for households making less than $250,000 a year: 58 percent to 37 percent opposed in Florida, 60-37 percent in Ohio and 62 to 34 percent in Pennsylvania.
“If today were November 6, President Barack Obama would sweep the key swing states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania and – if history is any guide – into a second term in the Oval Office,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “The president is running better in the key swing states than he is nationally. Part of the reason may be that the unemployment rate in Ohio is well below the national average. In Florida it has been dropping over the past year, while nationally that has not been the case.”
Romney breaks even with Obama on the question of who is best equipped to handle the economy, however, Brown said. The president’s chief strengths are the traditional “gender gap” – an advantage among women voters - and better "likeability" rankings than Romney has.
Yet the poll sampled 2.5 times more self-identified Democrats in Florida than the network exit poll did four years ago when Obama carried the state by 5 percentage points. Could there be more enthusiasm for Obama now that he is an incumbent with a record and a soft economy rather than a historic first-time candidate?
The new poll also runs counter to national polls which show a tighter race overall. Critics were asking Wednesday how the swing states could be at such variance.
In 18 out of the 20 independent polls of Pennsylvania voters taken since the beginning of the year, Obama has never held this large a lead.
“We have seen growing enthusiasm for Governor Romney in Pennsylvania...from increasing unemployment, rising healthcare costs, to a continuing war on coal that has forced companies to close their doors and lay off workers, President Obama’s policies are making it harder for Pennsylvania’s families and small businesses to survive," said Billy Pitman, state spokesman for the Republican National Committee.
The Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS poll was taken July 24 through July 30, and results are based on telephone interviews with:
1,177 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percent;
1,193 Ohio likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent;
1,168 Pennsylvania likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percent.
Comments (70)
Interesting how some polls make headlines and other polls arent reported in this newspaper. especially the pollster who was found t obe the most accurate in the last election. Why is that?-------------http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/rasmussen-romney-269-obama-243_647240.html— tr88- Remember, "YOU DIDN'T BUILD THAT"! Business owners and entraprenuers owe their successes to government...LoL!!! If it were left to the media, Lenin or Stalin would be President. Left leaning socialist liberals like Obama are not interested in building anything or private property/rights...all they believe in is what they can take from YOU and what property and rights they can take away from citizens for their own gain. I wonder when Harvard is going to release Obama's college records???
- Obama pointed out that businesses rely on government assets like roads, bridges, airports, police, fire fighters and workers who received a public education. He never said that the government was responsible for "building" a business. Obama was 100% correct and everything you posted was a lie. Why do you feel the need to lie and distort? It's because Republicans these days have no ideas. — MikeP
- And it should be pointed out that when Romney headed the Olympics in Salt Lake City, he heavily relied on government assistance...to the tune of over 400 million. I guess Willard forgets this. His companies can take money from the Feds, but shame on anyone else who does. — CommonSense in Philly
- Wrong link-----------http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/florida/election_2012_florida_president— tr88
- Oh God, not another useless poll. Ridiculous. The ONLY poll which matters is the one on election day when legal voters who care enough to vote, take the initiative and actually do so. And usually, the results of THAT real poll is often different than any of these ridiculous politically self serving BS polls.— kelprod2
- Man, you are a broken record, nimrod. Why don't you just skip an article that has the word "poll" in the headline?
— 1980 - If it were up to Obama and the liberals all college students with a + 3.0 GPA would have to give up 1 pt of their GPA to those with less than 3.0 GPA (because they didn't study) just to ensure everyone gets a fair chance after college. Remember that!
- That sure was a long way to go for basically no laugh whatsoever. At least you've ended the dumbest-post-of-the-day suspense before lunch. — 1980
- TR88: LOL/ Rasmussen. Everyone knows if Rasmussen swing 4-6 points Republican. LOL.— Bush Destroyed America
- LOL, Thats what ignorant liberals are programmed to say. Want to guess who the most accurate pollster in the last Presidential election was? LOL — tr88
- In the words of an infamous Inky Jourlallist....."But is it accurate?"— STEPHEN1988
- What polls the Philadelphia Inquirer publishes is all part of the big liberal conspiracy. There's a handful of guys who are pulling all of the strings and controlling everything you see and hear! Yeah. sure. Here's the truth. Many polling companies have been around for decades and they have a well documented track record. Saying that the polls are often different than actual results is a lie. You'd think that people can't go back and see how these companies have done in the past. Republicans think everyone is stupid. The best strategy for Romney is to go into hiding and make no public statements until after the election. Romney is the poster child for all that is wrong in this country. He won't tell us his policies, won't release his taxes and lies everytime he opens his mouth. When you have a candidate who won't tell you about his past and won't tell you what he has planned for the future, you wonder why he even wants to be president. Based only on what we see today, he's a bumbling, incompetant manager of his own campaign.— MikeP
- Mike, it is actually the other way around. Democrats think people are stupid. that is why Liberals are the kings of "we know best" policy. eg. universal healthcare, public education, welfare, any type of handout. The line from Democrats is basically, "we know best, so let our policies govern your life"
Mike, day in, day out, I read your stuff on here and Ive concluded you are pretty far out of your league.— TR - The lead is going to grow the more that idiot Romney opens his mouth. Any other countries he can p*ss off while traveling? That's what happens when you field a plasticine "candidate" without a single self-firing brain cell in that polyurethane head of his.— CiceroSpuriousDeodatus
- Figures lie and liars figure.— Phishface
- I guess polls are useful if they encourage the party that's trailing to step up their campaigning and efforts to attract voters.— NorthPhillyTechie
- will you run these articles when Romney starts to lead? What about polls that show him ahead nationally? How come you never show that?— stevejones
- Waaaaah, waaaaahhhh. How come you want cover my guy?? Who is leading nationally is irrelevant. The winner of the swing states gets elected. Wahhh, why don't you twist reality so it looks like my guy is winning. What a bunch of whinners. — MikeP
- if its true and that is a big if coming from this liberal rag, horrible horrible news from americans.— psualum
- Hmmm! The CBS/NY Times polling, the least biased news organizations out there and friend to Mitt Romney. I am sure I can trust this poll and toss out all of the other polls from Rasmussen, Real Clear Politics, etc. that show a slightly different result. Thank you Philly.com— ltgerrymc
- Well, I just looked over at RCP and they have Obama up 2% nationally and up in OH, VA, IA, FL, CO, NV, WI, MI, NH, and PA, and Romney up in NC and MO. So that's Obama up in 10 of 12 swing states. So is RCP now part of some liberal conspiracy?
- Romney will never lead lol! If you guys stop making everything about race.. and party and realize that we are one and elected officials love dividing the people by a party system.. we will overcome. but until then vote for the one thats closer to your color lol i guess now who wins— noncents
- ltgerrymc: Um that's a national poll. As you remember from the Bush election The national voting numbers mean nothing.— Bush Destroyed America
- Figures lie and liars figure.
— Phishface
---
This article is about the poll numbers. Not the Republican fiscal policy.— Bush Destroyed America - Cicero: We know your hero doesn't dare p*ss anyone off. He's too busy getting his knees dirty
— Gaspar Macky
---
Bush is no longer in office with Turd Blossom and Jeff Gannon paying late night visits to the WH.
You seen confused. You voted twice for the guy who really got his knees dirty.
Republicans. Always trying to put their own faults on others.— Bush Destroyed America - What's not polled are the "independents", and "undecided". Romney will beat the "closet Muslim" in a landslide in November.... Book on it.— dogman5
- I get a kick out of how polls all of a sudden don't matter when they show republicans losing. republicans are going to have to come to grips that their foxnews / am radio world is way out of the mainstream and that they man they see as the muslim socialist anti-christ is actually beloved in this country.— Ryan
- The polls don't bother me. Obama's numbers will not increase and Romney's will not decrease especially when the media is forced to focus on Romney leadership, experience and great family and values. I'd give up on PA so all those libs can stop crying over voter ID. PA will go Obama because too many people "have his back". They apparently like being on unemployment and getting food stamps and welfare. Not me. I'd rather have a job and wealth. They can have his back and be a fan. I say "NO THANKS!".— AvoidSundanceVacations
- test
- FACTS; Real unemployment (add in those no longer able to receive uneployment/no longer looking/underemployed *** 21.5% ***. FACT; GDP for 2nd qtr 1.5% and dropping further for 3rd qtr. FACT; U.S. is $16 TRILLION IN DEBT. Fact:After bailout General Motors owes $30 billion to Goverment and General Motors is in a steep decline (General Motors is really partially owned by our own goverment now). Fact: Recent College graduates rate of unemployment at 31%. FACT: ALL MINORITIES UNEMPLOYMENT OF BLACKS/HISPANICS... has gone up under this administration to double digits 13.5% to 15.5%. FACT: Housing market the number one economic driving force in U.S. IS ACTUALLY IN CONTRACTION (FORECLOSURES/SHORT SALES/ABYSMAL NEGLIBLE NEW CONSTRUCTION. FACT: 40 CENTS OF EVRY DOLLAR THE U.S. GOVERMENT SPENDS IS BORROWED FROM JAPAN AND CHINA. UNDER OBAMA WE HAVE ACCUMULATED MORE DEBT IN HIS THREE AND A HALF YEARS IN OFFICE THEN THE LAST 40 PRESIDENTS COMBINED!ROMMEY WILL WIN ELECTION IN A LANDSLIDE (as ridiculous as it sounds to any reader this will actually happen!) YES I SAID LANDSLIDE! PRESIDENT ROMNEY JANUARY 2013 GET USED TO IT!!!— Alpha58
- Fact: the economy wasn't swimming along in 12/08 and then suddenly plunged into the worst, most complex and most wide-ranging recession the third week of 1/09. Fact: you CAN'T make inane POSITIONS seem MORE CONVINCING just by hitting THE CAPS LOCK BUTTON. — 1980
- Hey way to twist what Obama said Citizenc92. Im not the biggest Obama fan but dont twist someones word to make them fit your agenda. Not once did he say the government helped them he said teachers I owe my Success to a hand full of teachers and a boss who taught me everything he knew.— cuso20
- Republican Talking Point: "If unemployment remains...I should be a one term President." --B. Obama
Just taking the President at his word! Soon to be OrvalEugeneFaubus (a "stand up" Democrat) aka...— Bucks County Mike - It's going to be tough for Mittens Mandate to get elected with a sub 30% favorability rating. Too many independents and moderates don't trust a guy who made his living off outsourcing jobs to china and Mexico. Mittens made his fortune off others misfortunes. And let's be real here, Mittens was gifted millions by his old man to start his career like Trump.
Mittens Mandate can't be trusted that is why he is so disliked. Face it, Obama will be around for another four years and it will be amusing watching the crackpot GOP go nuts for the next four years.— The Fundamentals of the Economy are Fine - (@Fundamentals of the economy are fine) Yes Obama will be President of Kenya or the Mickey Mouse Club if he is not oppossed by any breathing human being. LOL!— Alpha58
- These polls are laughable. Gallup shows that as of this year, 30% of Americans identify as Republican and 30% as Democrat and yet when you look at the sampling of these polls, they always have a heavier sampling of Democrats.— john reilly
Comment removed.- The sample internals on these polls have been destroyed by anyone who cared to look at them.— Mr. Smith
- Republicans need to ask why moderates and independents don't trust Mittens and why he refuses to release his tax returns.
What is Mittens hiding?— The Fundamentals of the Economy are Fine 
Hillary 2016, she will finish burying the last Tea Party Racist, Sexist, Homophobic Plutocrat!!- This poll is skewed to favor the Democrats. If we look at the polling numbers and the exit polls of the past two elections, you will see how bad it is.
In PA, the exit polls (D/R/I) for the 2008 election and the 2010 election were 44/37/18 and 40/37/23. However the sample data used by these organizations had the breakdown as 38/32/26. The GOP should have been 37% and independents are overstated.
In Ohio, the exits polls were 39/31/30 and 36/37/28. However, the poll sample was 35/27/32. Again an under-sampling of Republicans who never dipped below 30%.
In Florida, the exit polls were 37/34/29 and 36/36/29. However, here again the sample was 36/27/32.
Even if you make the argument that the 2010 exit polls aren't the same as a Presidential election, there should be no reason to think that the GOP numbers will decline lower than what they were in 2008. But, these polls somehow believe that they will or they want people to start throwing in the towel for the GOP in order to keep Obama in office.
If people want to do something about these polls, just show up on election day and prove to the rest of the nation how biased they really are.— djaymick 
An attempt by the liberal media to sway voters opinion. I have news for you, it is a losing cause. The Pennsylvania Ave residents have already begun picking colors for their new home.- Let me get this straight, I'm supposed to care how Romney spends his money, but ignore how Obama spends mine?— sjuhawk416
- I do enjoy observing "occupants" of the vacuum you Obamatrons live in, it is quite entertaining! This just in, dinner on election night in Obamaland is Goose, as in his goose is cooked. He will get to enjoy Ramadan back in his Chitown digs and will go down as the worst in history. You just don't know it yet because you have not come up for air while swmimming in the River Denial!— Paul Revered
- A vote for Mittens Mandate is a vote for the Bush policies of the past. In fact Mittens has doubled down on war with Iran and the continued deficit spending of George Bush.
No thanks— The Fundamentals of the Economy are Fine - An example of what comes out of the mouth of a crack smoker, ...."Hillary 2016, she will finish burying the last Tea Party Racist, Sexist, Homophobic Plutocrat!! — Fernando08"
— Paul Revered - Think again . . . closely evaluate those polls including their sampling statistics. They are pure mathematical garbage. Unfortunately you'll see a lot more of this left wing slant between now and November.— rplat
- Ah quit yappin .... You are all missing the big picture...... We are screwed regardless of who wins.... We are broke and there is not enough money to fix it..... Dems can tax all they wants , take it all..... It doesn't even come close.... The repubs can cut all they want.... Won't make a dent..... We are broke...... Look for a revolution within 10'years. Based on our dependancy on entitlements and nothing left to tax...... No way to get real economic growth . Obama is just expediting the revolution ... Inevitable...... Game over..... Used to be a great country..... History will show that bush and Obama destroyed the country...... You can put anybody in there now.... It is a disaster..... Time to move.— lordhelpus
- boy I hope so. We need a french style revolution. I want the aristocrats who own our gov't to be thrown into the streets. occupy wynnewood! — Ryan
- If the middle class puts believes him and puts this clown back in office, then they deserve to get shafted by him.— moretoit
- You are going to be so surprised when this socialist clown loses— fbpdplt
- Great! If President Obama wins a second term, and his budget projections are accurate, the National Debt will rise to 20 Trillion dollars. That would mean the debt increased 87 percent, or 9.3 trillion dollars in his 8 years. I know Bush's fault.— tlee
- Another day, another skewed poll to protect the president and mislead the public about his "positive" poll numbers and how it is a good sign for his re-election. This will continue along with not reporting any negative or damaging news on the President and the sky is falling reporting on any news that can be spun to hurt their enemy Romney. We can't vote the "journalists" out but we can and have refused to buy their propoganda as can clearly be seen in the media's ratings tailspin! Expect their spirits to be high as they breathlessly report on Obama's coming victory and then depression and "surprise" when he is "unexpectedly" thrown out in a landslide election.— cujat13
- We can talk about all the polls we want, but the simple fact of the matter is that no one trusts Mitt Romney. His entire persona, the way he has made his money, and his complete inability to stay on one side of any issue will not bring people out to vote for him. He may very well be the most unlikable presidential candidate ever to win a nomination. The only people who will vote for him are those who just simply hate Obama, and historically, that doesn't win the presidency. People have to be fully on board with a candidate for them to win, especially when trying to unseat an incumbent. And you don't have to go too far back to see an example: Bush vs. Kerry. People who hated Bush voted for Kerry. Everyone else voted for Bush.— Hemingway
- But many presidents HAVE lost when people hate their policies! Obama is clueless when it comes to business, markets and economics in general and that combined with his insistence on dividing American's into little sub groups according to their race, sex, sexual orientation and class is patently offensive to most American's regardless of ideology and ALWAYS leads to a divided and less successful country. — cujat13
- Obama, your not getting my vote!
- Comment removed.
- Comment removed.
- Nobody trusts Mittens and his secrets. What is he hiding and why don't voters trust a carpetbagger like Mittens?— The Fundamentals of the Economy are Fine
- surprised a new york times poll......well now fairness...yea sure...— frank1121
- Well if these left wing media publications say Obama is ahead I am sure we can trust them! Are you freaking kidding me? The left wing media is a bunch of liars for Obama. Good God, people in PA are out of work, tired of UNION thuggery, sick of Mayor Nutter and the crime in Philly, disgusted by Councilman Kenny's comments about Chick Fil A. Obama is going down faster than the Titanic thanks to himself and the left wing lunatics who have zero common sense, failed policies, put 1/2 of Americans on food stamps (to stimulate the economy according to Nancy Pelosi). This poll is a ridiculous ditch effort to convince people Obama has a track record to actually run on. Everything this president and his puppetmasters have done have destroyed our nation, cities, towns, race-relations, our healthcare, run up spending more in the history of all presidents combined. Get a grip and face reality that the liberals are going to screech louder as the election draws as they have zero to run on. They can only demean Americans & pit them against each other like we are stupid enough to think the rich (people lucky enough to have a freakin job) aren't paying their "fair share" when 1/2 our country doesn't pay fed. taxes and half are on food stamps and millions are in the unemployment lines. This poll is a blanking lie ! Way to go left wing media - keep on lying and you won't even have a paper to publish anymore as we the people are sick of your opinon-based "news. We are NOT all stupid bigots/racists as you make us out to be.— coniljw
- So 4-6% will decide this election--note as well that on side may be + and the other - so there is still much time and spin to make Bama/Dems look good. Besides the real challenge is to vote the Dms out of power in the Senate where the Tea Party and corrupt Holder Justice Department (Stephens of Ark) held sway and lost the Repubs 2 seats. Still hope ---No change No Hope and we go down in flames to become the Socialist Republic of the US, err Greece. Bama's real agenda. Good voting to all in PA. Unless the intimidation at the polls is allowed this time by the NBPP.— Obamasfool
- These numbers are a result of oversampling Democrats by 9% in Florida, 8% in Ohio and 6% in Pennsylvania. Nice try though.— freethinker88
- It's interesting, since I took the time to research this a bit more in depth..........this polling company OVERSAMMPLED DEMOCRATS by 9%
Like so many polling companies (just like papers and journalists today)...they have opted to prostitute themselves, and skew the methodolgy to arrive at an outcome that will put a smile on the face of those that paid for the pole. It's more lying.....and done to dispirit the opposition, but it is just that...a lie. People generally don't like being lied to....and these polling companies are either honest....and give real numbers, or they set up the poll for a predetermined outcome. Personally...I hate these outfits that deal in such shoddy tactics, and lie....all for money. They are the lowest of the low.— Alfred-King of Wessex - def of is is and the def of obama was was— jstash
- Take your pick
dud
http://napoleonlive.info/politics/obama-and-his-record/
empty suit
http://napoleonlive.info/politics/romney-and-his-record/— JerryFrey
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Inquirer staff writer Thomas Fitzgerald blogs about national politics.
You can reach Tom Fitzgerald at 215-854-2718 or tfitzgerald@phillynews.com.
Reach Thomas at tfitzgerald@phillynews.com.
Thomas Fitzgerald
Inquirer Politics Writer
You can reach Tom Fitzgerald at 215-854-2718 or tfitzgerald@phillynews.com.
Reach Thomas at tfitzgerald@phillynews.com.
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