Poll: Obama leads in Pa., Ohio and Fla. among likely voters
President Obama hits 50 percent mark in crucial swing states PA, OH and FL, Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS poll finds. Middle class v. Rich theme may be working.
Poll: Obama leads in Pa., Ohio and Fla. among likely voters
Thomas Fitzgerald, Inquirer Politics Writer
President Obama leads Republican Mitt Romney with a slim majority of likely voters in each of the crucial battleground states of Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida, according to a Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times poll released Tuesday.
It is the first survey of voters who say they plan to vote, considered a more precise measurement of sentiment than polls of registered voters by Quinnipiac and others, in which the president generally has been running in the high 40s.
Conservative critics zeroed in on the poll's methodology, citing data that suggest that it assumed unrealistically high turnout by Democrats.
The Quinnipiac pollsters, who partnered with the two news organizations, say that Obama has been lifted by strong support for his plan to increase income taxes on higher-income voters. It also may be interpreted as a sign that the Obama campaign’s early advertising onslaught in swing states – a mostly negative drumbeat against Romney’s career as a private-equity tycoon who has parked money in foreign tax havens – may have gained some traction. Republicans and many independent analysts have argued that the attacks are appeals to class resentment, a rarely successful tack in U.S. politics.
In Pennsylvania, Obama tops Romney 53 to 42 percent in the poll; the president leads by a smaller 50 to 44 percent margin in Ohio, and edges Romney 51 percent to 45 percent in Florida.
Support for Obama’s proposal to extend the Bush-era tax rates only for households making less than $250,000 a year: 58 percent to 37 percent opposed in Florida, 60-37 percent in Ohio and 62 to 34 percent in Pennsylvania.
“If today were November 6, President Barack Obama would sweep the key swing states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania and – if history is any guide – into a second term in the Oval Office,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “The president is running better in the key swing states than he is nationally. Part of the reason may be that the unemployment rate in Ohio is well below the national average. In Florida it has been dropping over the past year, while nationally that has not been the case.”
Romney breaks even with Obama on the question of who is best equipped to handle the economy, however, Brown said. The president’s chief strengths are the traditional “gender gap” – an advantage among women voters - and better "likeability" rankings than Romney has.
Yet the poll sampled 2.5 times more self-identified Democrats in Florida than the network exit poll did four years ago when Obama carried the state by 5 percentage points. Could there be more enthusiasm for Obama now that he is an incumbent with a record and a soft economy rather than a historic first-time candidate?
The new poll also runs counter to national polls which show a tighter race overall. Critics were asking Wednesday how the swing states could be at such variance.
In 18 out of the 20 independent polls of Pennsylvania voters taken since the beginning of the year, Obama has never held this large a lead.
“We have seen growing enthusiasm for Governor Romney in Pennsylvania...from increasing unemployment, rising healthcare costs, to a continuing war on coal that has forced companies to close their doors and lay off workers, President Obama’s policies are making it harder for Pennsylvania’s families and small businesses to survive," said Billy Pitman, state spokesman for the Republican National Committee.
The Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS poll was taken July 24 through July 30, and results are based on telephone interviews with:
1,177 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percent;
1,193 Ohio likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent;
1,168 Pennsylvania likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percent.
Interesting how some polls make headlines and other polls arent reported in this newspaper. especially the pollster who was found t obe the most accurate in the last election. Why is that?-------------http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/rasmussen-romney-269-obama-243_647240.html— tr88- Remember, "YOU DIDN'T BUILD THAT"! Business owners and entraprenuers owe their successes to government...LoL!!! If it were left to the media, Lenin or Stalin would be President. Left leaning socialist liberals like Obama are not interested in building anything or private property/rights...all they believe in is what they can take from YOU and what property and rights they can take away from citizens for their own gain. I wonder when Harvard is going to release Obama's college records???
- Obama pointed out that businesses rely on government assets like roads, bridges, airports, police, fire fighters and workers who received a public education. He never said that the government was responsible for "building" a business. Obama was 100% correct and everything you posted was a lie. Why do you feel the need to lie and distort? It's because Republicans these days have no ideas. — MikeP
- And it should be pointed out that when Romney headed the Olympics in Salt Lake City, he heavily relied on government assistance...to the tune of over 400 million. I guess Willard forgets this. His companies can take money from the Feds, but shame on anyone else who does. — CommonSense in Philly
- Wrong link-----------http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/florida/election_2012_florida_president— tr88
- Oh God, not another useless poll. Ridiculous. The ONLY poll which matters is the one on election day when legal voters who care enough to vote, take the initiative and actually do so. And usually, the results of THAT real poll is often different than any of these ridiculous politically self serving BS polls.— kelprod2
- Man, you are a broken record, nimrod. Why don't you just skip an article that has the word "poll" in the headline?
— 1980 - If it were up to Obama and the liberals all college students with a + 3.0 GPA would have to give up 1 pt of their GPA to those with less than 3.0 GPA (because they didn't study) just to ensure everyone gets a fair chance after college. Remember that!
- That sure was a long way to go for basically no laugh whatsoever. At least you've ended the dumbest-post-of-the-day suspense before lunch. — 1980
- TR88: LOL/ Rasmussen. Everyone knows if Rasmussen swing 4-6 points Republican. LOL.— Bush Destroyed America
- LOL, Thats what ignorant liberals are programmed to say. Want to guess who the most accurate pollster in the last Presidential election was? LOL — tr88
- In the words of an infamous Inky Jourlallist....."But is it accurate?"— STEPHEN1988
- What polls the Philadelphia Inquirer publishes is all part of the big liberal conspiracy. There's a handful of guys who are pulling all of the strings and controlling everything you see and hear! Yeah. sure. Here's the truth. Many polling companies have been around for decades and they have a well documented track record. Saying that the polls are often different than actual results is a lie. You'd think that people can't go back and see how these companies have done in the past. Republicans think everyone is stupid. The best strategy for Romney is to go into hiding and make no public statements until after the election. Romney is the poster child for all that is wrong in this country. He won't tell us his policies, won't release his taxes and lies everytime he opens his mouth. When you have a candidate who won't tell you about his past and won't tell you what he has planned for the future, you wonder why he even wants to be president. Based only on what we see today, he's a bumbling, incompetant manager of his own campaign.— MikeP
- Mike, it is actually the other way around. Democrats think people are stupid. that is why Liberals are the kings of "we know best" policy. eg. universal healthcare, public education, welfare, any type of handout. The line from Democrats is basically, "we know best, so let our policies govern your life"
Mike, day in, day out, I read your stuff on here and Ive concluded you are pretty far out of your league.— TR
You can reach Tom Fitzgerald at 215-854-2718 or tfitzgerald@phillynews.com.
Reach Thomas at tfitzgerald@phillynews.com.
