Obama up by 8 points in new Mercyhurst U poll
President Obama leads Republican Mitt Romney 48 percent to 40 percent among likely vot ers, according to a new poll by Mercyhurst University.
Obama up by 8 points in new Mercyhurst U poll
Thomas Fitzgerald, Inquirer Politics Writer
President Obama has a solid lead over Republican Mitt Romney in Pennsylvania with just over six weeks to go in the campaign, according to a new Mercyhurst University poll of likely voters released Monday.
Forty-eight percent of likely Pennsylvania voters say they would cast their ballots for Obama, while 40 percent would vote for Romney if the election were held today. Just six percent say they are undecided.
The survey of 522 likely voters was conducted from Sept. 18-22, and the results are subject to a margin of error of plus or minus 4.29 percentage points.
Mercyhurst’s findings are consistent with a pair of polls conducted in the state over the past two weeks. The Philadelphia Inquirer Pennsylvania Poll published Sept. 16 had Obama leading Romney 50 percent to 39 percent, and the Sept. 18 Morning Call/Muhlenberg College Poll showed Obama with a 50 percent to 41 percent lead.
Those results are within the range of other recent polls - including one by Rasmussen Reports, considered a GOP-leaning firm, which put Obama up by 12 points in the state. Real Clear Politics, the news site that aggregates polling, says that Obama's lead currently averages 8 percentage points.
But a poll published Sunday in The Pittsburgh Tribune-Review found a much closer race –with Obama leading 47 percent to 45 percent, and six percent undecided. That survey of 800 likely voters was conducted Sept. 18-20 by Susquehanna Polling & Research, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
Susquehanna, a Republican-oriented firm based in Harrisburg, says its results differ because it based its sampling on a forecast of a lower voter turnout than in 2008.
“Barack Obama is in a good position in the state, but the race isn’t over,” said Joseph Morris, the director of the Mercyhurst Center for Applied Politics, which conducted the most recent poll for the Erie-based school.
"This year’s presidential debates are going to be pivotal,” Morris said. “They’ll provide Barack Obama with the opportunity to remind people why they voted for him four years ago, and offer Mitt Romney the chance to show that he has what it takes to be president. In a close election like this one, good debate performances may be the difference between winning and losing.”
Among the other findings in the Mercyhurst poll:
Of respondents indicate they will vote for Obama, 63 percent say they strongly support him; 17 percent say their vote is more motivated by opposition to Romney. Among those who will vote for Romney, 43 percent say they strongly support him; 39 percent indicate they are voting for Romney because they oppose Obama.
Just 49 percent of Pennsylvania’s likely voters say they have heard of super PACs, which can raise and spend unlimited amounts of money to influence elections and have been a major factor in 2012. Of those who knew about the groups, 68 percent said they should not be unlimited in their spending ability, and 71 percent said that the groups should be required to disclose the names of their donors. A sizable majority of them, 63 percent, of respondents said that super PACs had a negative effect on the presidential race.
Someone should tell Gleason, the Republican Party head in Pa., to read this poll. As most Republicans, he drinks the kool-aid and departs from reality.— lport- Obama has taken lead in North Carolina according to RCP average. Gleason needs to send his bully's to help Romney in NC; PA is already lost.
Romney's deregatory comment towards veterans and seniors will cost him NC by a bigger margin than 2008.
Congress has to be taken over. GOP will try to destroy this country if they can maintain majority in congress.— Seed - Penn's woods is not one of the nine states which will decide the election.— bigeastbeast
Comment removed.- If I took a poll of rabbits, I'm pretty sure they'd say Bugs Bunny would be President too. LoL.
— Professor1982 - You know rabbits can't talk, right? I ask because you believe some crazy stuff. Even if they could, republiCons wouldn't allow them to vote anyway.
- The Loyalists thought the Revolutionaries were "crazy". Physicists thought Einstein was "crazy". IBM thought Jobs and Gates were "crazy".
"Crazy" often turns out to be true and surviving the test of time.
Won't you join us? Or would you prefer to be part of the "sheeple" being led to slaughter?— Professor1982 - Funny how two polls are referenced as a "GOP-leaning firm" or "Republican-oriented firm". It is implied that all others are totally objective. Check out the sampling bias towards Democrats and you'll see that the author's personal bias shines through ....— glenside_bill
- Rasmussen and Susquehanna are private contractors who rely on the state GOP, GOP campaigns and conservative groups for their existence. There are firms that fill the same role on the Democrat side, but Mr. Fitzpatrick is absolutely correct that Rasmussen and Susquehanna are GOP-leaning private research firms.
And what do you mean about "the author's personal bias" shining through in the Mercyhurst poll? "The author" is a newspaper reporter/columnist, not a pollster.— 1980 - Comment removed.
- The Pittsburg Tribune Review is an ultra conservative right wing rag. They were one of the largest proponents of the garbage speculation that the Clintons killed Vince Foster. They kept pushing the vicious lie for years after the most ardent conservatives had agreed there was no there there.
These republicans also rely on old polling formulas that only use land lines and not cell phones. When you exclude people who don't use land lines you exclude a large percentage of the electorate, and overemphasize older voters. - Speaking of relying on old formulas??? When will this Administration stop using fraudulent unemployment figures and start counting ALL those unemployed???
Unemployment has surpassed 20% people. Mark it.— Professor1982 - If hannibal barca had a brain-he would be dangerous. Thank God we are all safe.....Obama wins....I love to say it....it drives the GOP crazy.— kingofpoker
- If hannibal barca had a brain-he would be dangerous. Thank God we are all safe.....Obama wins....I love to say it....it drives the GOP crazy.— kingofpoker
- Rasmussen has an unfortunate habit of being accurate— bannedrepublican
You can reach Tom Fitzgerald at 215-854-2718 or tfitzgerald@phillynews.com.
Reach Thomas at tfitzgerald@phillynews.com.
