Obama bounce a 'sugar high,' Romney pollster says
Barack Obama seems to have come out of the conventions with a bounce in the polls; Romney pollster Neil Newhouse argues that is a "sugar high" and the presidents numbers will fall to earth as the economy remains mired.
Obama bounce a 'sugar high,' Romney pollster says
Thomas Fitzgerald, Inquirer Politics Writer
President Obama has seen an uptick in voter support since last week’s Democratic National Convention, but that bounce amounts to a temporary “sugar high,” the Romney campaign pollster said Monday, arguing that the Republican challenger has an inherent advantage over the incumbent.
Neil Newhouse, pollster and senior strategist in the Romney high command, wrote in a memo that was released to reporters to address the developing conventional wisdom that Obama has pulled ahead in the presidential race and to try to head off panic among GOPers. The lead will recede, Newhouse argued.
“Don’t get too worked up about the latest polling,” Newhouse wrote. “The basic structure of the race has not changed significantly. “The reality of the Obama economy will reassert itself as the ultimate downfall of the Obama presidency, and Mitt Romney will win this race.”
After months of relative deadlock, Obama opened up a lead in several national polls since the conclusion of his party’s convention in Charlotte, N.C. Thursday. In a Reuters/Ipsos poll released Sunday, 47 percent of likely voters supported Obama and 43 percent said they backed Romney. In a Gallup tracking poll, Obama leads Romney 49 percent to 44 percent, while an automated Rasmussen poll released Monday put Obama at 50 percent and Romney at 45 percent.
Of course, convention bounces are notoriously evanescent and national polls are potentially misleading. The better numbers for Obama could reflect better support in safely blue states where, for electoral vote purposes, the increased backing will not matter at all. The race is likely to be decided in nine to 12 battleground states – places such as Virginia, Ohio, Florida, Colorado, etc. – and it is more telling to watch polls in each state.
Newhouse, moreover, pointed out that the Romney campaign had expanded the map, beginning advertising in Wisconsin, which looks newly competitive since the addition of Rep. Paul Ryan as Romney’s running mate. He did not mention Ohio, where Obama has pulled ahead, nor Pennsylvania and Michigan, states where Romney and his conservative super PAC allies are not advertising at all.
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— hannibal barca - I know Obama comes off as a superman, but Hannibal he's not. He couldn't do EVERYTHING in 48 months...just not possible, especially since he had to reverse the Depression Bush policies put this country in and getting the Affordable Care Act passed. He did more in his 1st to years than Bush I and II did in their entire presidencies. — CommonSense in Philly
Comment removed.- how do they explain no sugar high after mitt's convention?
bottom line- this is a base election with not a lot of undecideds. if mitt's down by 2% in a state, that state is lost. the undecideds will not make up the difference. - romney is falling fast in the polls...www.fivethirtyeight.com— rubberguard
Romney should tell us his secret plan to creat jobs and his secret plan to lower the deficit. Maybe he keeps these secret plans in his secret drawers.- Don't worry Romney promises 12 million jobs, you have to believe him.— flyers2thecup
- I feel sorry for the Republicans. They have a losing ticket and they know it.— BobSG
- The Republicans along with George W Bush created this mess and now want to blame Obama for not fixing it fast enough. Its gone to take time. I believe Romney will continue to hurt the Middle Class People with Tax cuts for the Rich , cuts to Medicare, Medicaid,Union Busting Scabs!— jerzeedivr
- Hey flyers2thecup-Obama promised if his programs were passed, unemployment wouldn't go above 8%. When are you going to hold him accountable for that? Stop being a kiss a-- Obama fan and think for yourself.— Phillies2008WSChamps
- Obama's programs were NOT passed. Most notably, the Republicans stopped the passage of a jobs bill that would have created over 1 million jobs, though infrastructure projects. His stimulus, which did stop the impending depression, was cut by more than half. The jobs were not lost on his watch---but the Republicans have committed themselves to blocking all job creating legislation. And, by the way, Obama had a filibuster-proof majority for all of 4 months, due to the legal fight over Al Franken's election and Kennedy's death. The Republicans misused the filibuster as a veto dozens of times to stop acts that would have stimulated demand because they believed beating Obama in 2012 was more important than the economic health of the country. People now understand that---that's why the trend is towards reelection. But no one can take anything for granted. Make sure you are registered and go out and vote.— Palestra Jon
- yeah..the same pollster that said the facts werent important either...shows the kind of campaign they run. I think this campaign is more of a joke that the McCain Palin catastrophe— tdoc
- The libs are really circling the wagons. Who would have thought 8% unemployment, a 60% increase in the national debt and food stamp nation would be considered to be a successful 4 years. I wish Obama fans were this lenient with recent past Republican presidents. Next to Obama, George W. Bush looks like Bill Clinton.— Phillies2008WSChamps
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- Who EVER said it was a successful 4 years? The President himself has said it is incomplete. Why do you conservatives keep making things up? — CommonSense in Philly
You can reach Tom Fitzgerald at 215-854-2718 or tfitzgerald@phillynews.com.
Reach Thomas at tfitzgerald@phillynews.com.
