Saturday, November 28, 2015

Obama bounce a 'sugar high,' Romney pollster says

Barack Obama seems to have come out of the conventions with a bounce in the polls; Romney pollster Neil Newhouse argues that is a "sugar high" and the presidents numbers will fall to earth as the economy remains mired.

Obama bounce a 'sugar high,' Romney pollster says


President Obama has seen an uptick in voter support since last week’s Democratic National Convention, but that bounce amounts to a temporary “sugar high,” the Romney campaign pollster said Monday, arguing that the Republican challenger has an inherent advantage over the incumbent.

Neil Newhouse, pollster and senior strategist in the Romney high command, wrote in a memo that was released to reporters to address the developing conventional wisdom that Obama has pulled ahead in the presidential race and to try to head off panic among GOPers. The lead will recede, Newhouse argued.

“Don’t get too worked up about the latest polling,” Newhouse wrote. “The basic structure of the race has not changed significantly. “The reality of the Obama economy will reassert itself as the ultimate downfall of the Obama presidency, and Mitt Romney will win this race.”

After months of relative deadlock, Obama opened up a lead in several national polls since the conclusion of his party’s convention in Charlotte, N.C. Thursday. In a Reuters/Ipsos poll released Sunday, 47 percent of likely voters supported Obama and 43 percent said they backed Romney. In a Gallup tracking poll, Obama leads Romney 49 percent to 44 percent, while an automated Rasmussen poll released Monday put Obama at 50 percent and Romney at 45 percent.

Of course, convention bounces are notoriously evanescent and national polls are potentially misleading. The better numbers for Obama could reflect better support in safely blue states where, for electoral vote purposes, the increased backing will not matter at all. The race is likely to be decided in nine to 12 battleground states – places such as Virginia, Ohio, Florida, Colorado, etc. – and it is more telling to watch polls in each state.

Newhouse, moreover, pointed out that the Romney campaign had expanded the map, beginning advertising in Wisconsin, which looks newly competitive since the addition of Rep. Paul Ryan as Romney’s running mate. He did not mention Ohio, where Obama has pulled ahead, nor Pennsylvania and Michigan, states where Romney and his conservative super PAC allies are not advertising at all.


Inquirer Politics Writer
We encourage respectful comments but reserve the right to delete anything that doesn't contribute to an engaging dialogue.
Help us moderate this thread by flagging comments that violate our guidelines.

Comment policy: comments are intended to be civil, friendly conversations. Please treat other participants with respect and in a way that you would want to be treated. You are responsible for what you say. And please, stay on topic. If you see an objectionable post, please report it to us using the "Report Abuse" option.

Please note that comments are monitored by staff. We reserve the right at all times to remove any information or materials that are unlawful, threatening, abusive, libelous, defamatory, obscene, vulgar, pornographic, profane, indecent or otherwise objectionable. Personal attacks, especially on other participants, are not permitted. We reserve the right to permanently block any user who violates these terms and conditions.

Additionally comments that are long, have multiple paragraph breaks, include code, or include hyperlinks may not be posted.

Read 0 comments
comments powered by Disqus
About this blog

Inquirer staff writer Thomas Fitzgerald blogs about national politics.

Reach Thomas at

Tom Fitzgerald
Thomas Fitzgerald Inquirer Politics Writer
Also on
letter icon Newsletter