Obama bounce a 'sugar high,' Romney pollster says
Barack Obama seems to have come out of the conventions with a bounce in the polls; Romney pollster Neil Newhouse argues that is a "sugar high" and the presidents numbers will fall to earth as the economy remains mired.
Obama bounce a 'sugar high,' Romney pollster says
Thomas Fitzgerald, Inquirer Politics Writer
President Obama has seen an uptick in voter support since last week’s Democratic National Convention, but that bounce amounts to a temporary “sugar high,” the Romney campaign pollster said Monday, arguing that the Republican challenger has an inherent advantage over the incumbent.
Neil Newhouse, pollster and senior strategist in the Romney high command, wrote in a memo that was released to reporters to address the developing conventional wisdom that Obama has pulled ahead in the presidential race and to try to head off panic among GOPers. The lead will recede, Newhouse argued.
“Don’t get too worked up about the latest polling,” Newhouse wrote. “The basic structure of the race has not changed significantly. “The reality of the Obama economy will reassert itself as the ultimate downfall of the Obama presidency, and Mitt Romney will win this race.”
After months of relative deadlock, Obama opened up a lead in several national polls since the conclusion of his party’s convention in Charlotte, N.C. Thursday. In a Reuters/Ipsos poll released Sunday, 47 percent of likely voters supported Obama and 43 percent said they backed Romney. In a Gallup tracking poll, Obama leads Romney 49 percent to 44 percent, while an automated Rasmussen poll released Monday put Obama at 50 percent and Romney at 45 percent.
Of course, convention bounces are notoriously evanescent and national polls are potentially misleading. The better numbers for Obama could reflect better support in safely blue states where, for electoral vote purposes, the increased backing will not matter at all. The race is likely to be decided in nine to 12 battleground states – places such as Virginia, Ohio, Florida, Colorado, etc. – and it is more telling to watch polls in each state.
Newhouse, moreover, pointed out that the Romney campaign had expanded the map, beginning advertising in Wisconsin, which looks newly competitive since the addition of Rep. Paul Ryan as Romney’s running mate. He did not mention Ohio, where Obama has pulled ahead, nor Pennsylvania and Michigan, states where Romney and his conservative super PAC allies are not advertising at all.
For those of you who are not aware- Rasmussen is Fox News. Fox owns and controls them. They had Mitt up by three and now its Obama up by 5. An eight point bounce!! Rupert Murdoch wouldn’t lie.— jefflz- Voters are "children" with "sugar high" according to Romney camp.
Ann refers to the voters as "you people" and "unique people".
Arrogance will bring these peoples down!— Seed - I am sure Romney's drop had nothing to do with point by point rebuttal of his absolute lies about Medicare and Welfare exemption.
It had nothing to do with exposing the Bain job creation fiction or MA Romneycare to Romney don't care transformation.— Seed - This comment has been deleted.— hannibal barca
- Hmmm. My paycheck is higher than it was in 2008 due to Obama's tax cuts for the middle class and salary increases. My IRAs are higher than 2008. I no longer have to pay the balance due after insurance payments to providers for health care services (don't know if this is because of Obama Care or not), and the stock market today around 13,300 points. Don't think any of these FACTS quality as brain dead or being high. So yeah, I AM BETTER OFF NOW THAN 4 YEARS AGO which makes me conclude Hannibal you're just flat out wrong, or you're brain dead or high. Which is it? — CommonSense in Philly
- This comment has been deleted. — hannibal barca
- The question is: Which is it? Are you just flat out wrong, brain dead or high? — CommonSense in Philly
- This comment has been deleted. — hannibal barca
- I take it then your answer is you're flat out wrong. It no not an anecdote. As I said above it is a FACT. Of course this is the worst economic recovery coming out of a recession. It's also the worst recession since the Great Depression. Some even characterize this recession as a depression. And we can thank the Republicans for it. And anybody who votes for a republican to "fix it" IS brain dead. Only a fool would vote back into political office the people responsible for putting the United States in this depression. And as Bill Clinton said last week: No President, Republican or Democrat can fix it in 4 years. It just takes longer. And there's no question we'd be further along in the recovery if Republicans in Congress had worked with the President, instead obstructing EVERYTHING he has tried to do to fix it. And you're saying I/we should vote for these disloyal, unpatriotic Republicans yet again? No thanks. I've seen what Republicans do when they're in the White House. — CommonSense in Philly
Comment removed.- Comment removed.
- Lol. Nah, couldn't be that the more the Mittster and Ayn Ryan talk, the more people run like rats from a sinking ship. What did the Mittster say today? He "likes" aspects of Obamacare? Nice, Thanks, Mitt! And if these morons can't figure out that the more they blather "are you better off than 4 years ago?", the more people will ask "Hey Mittster, why not release your tax returns from 4 years ago - are YOU better off"? And the FACT-CHECKING? Guess they didn't anticipate people examining their statements. But then again, logic facts and reason are the three traits the "base" are woefully short on.— CiceroSpuriousDeodatus
- How Obama got a bounce is beyond me. He gave the most dull and predicatable speech with no vision that essentially asked people to stay with the status quo. Unless this is American Idol, he doesn't deserve a second term. But Romney needs to start playing dirty just like Obama. He needs to make the same kinds of wild accusations Obama makes about Romney. For example, Romney needs to say Obama plans to keep unemployment above 8% if not higher over the next 4 years. Romney needs to stop being so gentlemanly if he wants to win.— Phillies2008WSChamps
- Phillies2008, I'm sure they could write volumes about what is beyond you! Secondly, Willard HAS been playing dirty (to no avail). Romney's lies about the welfare waiver (you know the waiver Mitt asked for when he was governor, his releasing only 1 year of tax returns, Romney's lies about the $716 Billion in Medicare cuts to seniors, and you can fact check ANYTHING said about the President by Lyin' Ryan and you'll how how much Ryan missed the mark. Willard has been playing dirty since day one. — CommonSense in Philly
- Problem Hannibal is that Clinton's speech, based on FACTS you can't discuss in 30 second sound bites, destroyed that argument. The economy was in complete free fall when Obama took office, losing almost 100,000 jobs per month and having lost a half million in the 4 months prior to the inauguration. The financial sector lost trillions in wealth and hundreds of thousands of jobs---mostly middle class jobs. Obama called for initial steps in basic Keynsian economics---a stimulus, incentives to buy new cars, and tried (but failed over Republican filibuster) to pass a jobs bill. Still, since his 9th month, there has been job growth every month since. He prevented a depression, which Republican ideas (cut taxes on the rich and cut spending) would have caused. After supply side economics caused this mess, anyone with any understanding of basic economics knows that you must stimulate DEMAND. We would be much better off job-wise had the Republicans worked in the national interest rather than their stated interest to defeat Obama and passed some jobs bill. The biggest loss in employment is at the government level---both state and federal---and that is ridiculous in times like this. While deficits are large, you don't worry about short term deficits in a recession. They will get paid when the economy turns---just as happened under Clinton. The Republicans didn't give a whit about deficits when Bush ran the Clinton surplus into the largest deficits in terms of GDP in national history. Now that anyone who listened to the DNC with an open mind knows that, the polls are moving strongly to Obama. Unless the Republicans get their way with voter suppression, Romney will lose.— Palestra Jon
You can reach Tom Fitzgerald at 215-854-2718 or tfitzgerald@phillynews.com.
Reach Thomas at tfitzgerald@phillynews.com.
