Thursday, February 11, 2016

Iowa fit to be tied

Polling suggests three-way tie for the lead heading into Tuesday night's Republican Iowa caucuses.

Iowa fit to be tied


On the ground, the sense is that Repbulican presidential candidates Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum or Ron Paul could win the Iowa caucuses Tuesday night, where committed GOP supporters will cast the first votes of 2012.

A Public Policy Polling survey, conducted over the New Year's holiday weekend, found a three-way tie. Paul, the libertarian congressman from Texas, was the choice of 20 percent of likely caucus participants, according to the poll. Romney had the support of 19 percent, and Santorum, the social conservative and former senator from Pennsylvania, was at 18 percent support.

Newt Gingrich had 14 percent, Texas Gov. Rick Perry at 10 percent, Michele Bachmann at 8 percent and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, who has  not campaigned in Iowa, at 4 percent.

PPP found that Santorum has been surging, and has the highest net positive raiting among the leading candidates. Santorum, who had been languishing despite frequent campaigning in the state, has not been touched up with the attack ads that have devastated Gingrich in recent weeks.

More coverage
Bachmann quits race
Tweet: Perry staying in race
Romney edges Santorum
Nichols: No way to elect
GOP to take hard right turn
Gallery: Iowa caucuses
GOP official: McCain to endorse Romney
Complete coverage
The Big Tent: Santorum: Obama should man up
Iowa: The verdict that wasn't
Santorum links black people, public aid programs
Iowa voters see Romney as best Obama opponent
A political tip sheet

"It's impossible to tell who is going to win Tuesday night," said Dean Debnam, president of PPP, a Democrat-oriented firm in Raleigh, NC. He said that momentum is on Santorum's side, a passionate base argues for Paul, and Romney's strength is the sense that he might be most electable against President Obama. It all depends which factor is most on the minds of caucus-goers.

The survey has a margin of error of plus or minust 2.5 perentage points, accoding to the pollsters.

Inquirer Politics Writer
We encourage respectful comments but reserve the right to delete anything that doesn't contribute to an engaging dialogue.
Help us moderate this thread by flagging comments that violate our guidelines.

Comment policy: comments are intended to be civil, friendly conversations. Please treat other participants with respect and in a way that you would want to be treated. You are responsible for what you say. And please, stay on topic. If you see an objectionable post, please report it to us using the "Report Abuse" option.

Please note that comments are monitored by staff. We reserve the right at all times to remove any information or materials that are unlawful, threatening, abusive, libelous, defamatory, obscene, vulgar, pornographic, profane, indecent or otherwise objectionable. Personal attacks, especially on other participants, are not permitted. We reserve the right to permanently block any user who violates these terms and conditions.

Additionally comments that are long, have multiple paragraph breaks, include code, or include hyperlinks may not be posted.

Read 0 comments
comments powered by Disqus
About this blog

Inquirer staff writer Thomas Fitzgerald blogs about national politics.

Reach Thomas at

Tom Fitzgerald
Thomas Fitzgerald Inquirer Politics Writer
Also on
letter icon Newsletter