Can Santorum's big lead in PA prez primary last?
Santorum leads Romney 36 percent to 22 percent in his home state of Pennsylvania, according to a new poll, but the former senator's vulnerabilities have yet to be litigated there in TV ads.
Can Santorum's big lead in PA prez primary last?
Thomas Fitzgerald, Inquirer Politics Writer
With Pennsylvania’s late April primary suddenly looking like it will be a relevant inflection point in the Republican presidential race, a new Quinnipiac University poll Wednesday showed favorite son Rick Santorum with a commanding lead over Mitt Romney.
Santorum, who represented the state for two terms in the U.S. Senate, was the choice of 36 percent of registered Republicans in the survey, to 22 percent for Romney, the former Massachusetts governor who is the establishment choice for the GOP nomination but faces resistance on the right.
Texas Rep. Ron Paul drew 12 percent support, and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich got 8 percent, according to the poll.
“Santorum’s lead among conservatives, Tea Party members and white evangelical Christians is what we have found in other states,” said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Poll, run by the eponymous university in Connecticut.
Interestingly, the poll found that GOP women in Pennsylvania preferred Santorum to Romney, 41 percent to 18 percent. (Former philanderer Gingrich got 7 percent of Republican women.) Men were about evenly split between the two leaders: 30 percent for Santorum, 27 percent for Romney.
The “gender gap” in Santorum’s favor is striking, as he has written and inveighed against the trend of working women damaging the integrity of the American family, opposes abortion rights and recently was talking about his view that birth control is immoral (though he does not want to ban it for those who disagree with him). Of course, millions of conservative women agree with Santorum’s positions, particularly on abortion.
Santorum lost his 2006 re-election campaign to the Senate by 18 percentage points to now-Sen. Bob Casey (D.,Pa.).
In hypothetical fall matchups, Santorum trailed President Obama, 46 percent to 45 percent. Obama led Romney 46-40.
Republican primary results, based on interviews with 508 GOP registrants, are subject to a 4.4 percentage point error margin. The overall results, based on interviews with 1,248 registered voters, are subject to a 2.8 percentage point error margin.
All this said, the Romney campaign’s B-52s are waiting on the tarmac for racks of attack TV ads to be loaded in, and Santorum is vulnerable with his conservative base in Pennsylvania on several fronts.
One, his full-throated support of moderate former Sen. Arlen Specter (who later became a Democrat) over a Club for Growth conservative in 2004; two, his enthusiasm for earmarks and massive increases in federal spending and programming, i.e. Medicare Part D and No Child Left Behind; and three, the residency controversy that dogged his 2006 reelection campaign (Santorum, took money for homeschooling his kids in Virginia from the Penn Hills School District outside Pittsburgh, though he lived in Virginia. He owns a home in the district that was his legal “residence” on paper.)
On Tuesday, Romney stole a march on Santorum and unveiled endorsements from a raft of big-name state Republicans, including U.S. Reps. Bill Shuster, Charlie Dent, Jim Gerlach, Mike Fitzpatrick; former GOP chairman Alan Novak; and Don Adams, head of the Independence Tea Party Association's political action committee.
And Wednesday morning, former Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Ridge, who also was the first Homeland Security secretary, added his name to the growing list of Romney supporters. Ridge had supported former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, who dropped out of the Republican race before the South Carolina primary.
Any fat, leftist blogger who cites a bad poll to make thier case needs to be canned at the end of March.— blackhawk90- This is like watching an action movie where all the bad guys shoot one another in the first 20 minutes.— 1980
- Rick and Newt can be our first Catholic President and Vice president. Catholics Unite. It is time to donate to Rick instead of giving those envelopes on Sunday, donate them so PA can be proud of its first Catholic President. Of course, Rick will want a constitutional amendment banning abortions, guns, tobacco, sugar, and alcohol. Undoubtedly our Satanic Obamacare will be reduced to nill by the current Catholic Supreme Court (six out of nine are Catholics) and attend a Catholic Red mass before the opening of the Supreme court which does talk about the abortions. No conflict there because the six are Catholics. Of course any woman denied the pill or contraceptives should be guaranteed one free abortion a year, paid for by the federal government and prorated to the agency that denied a person's right to privacy and the health and welfare not only of the mother but of the mother's family.— Bob Washick
- Kerry McRomney continues to stumble and not "close the deal." Why would the GOP pick such a weak flip flopping candidate? We know Santorum is a strong social conservative, but he is a Borrow and Spender who built Big Government!
The GOP is a mess...BEAUTIFUL!— The Fundamentals of the Economy are Fine - Rick Santorum is not even slightly qualified to be president. Banning contraception, teaching creationism in public schools, banning gays from the military? This guy isn't a return to the 1950s. He's a return to the 1890s. This slate of Republican candidates is a disgrace. They all are pitching the Bush policies that caused the recession and are promising to go to war with Iran.— MikeP
- I understand that only 11% of eligible GOP voters have participated in the primaries and caucuses. I'm wondering how many actual people that would be. I'll guess it's just a tiny sliver of the American electorate.— Jeff West
Comment removed.- As a registered Republican I will vote for Sanctorum in the primary and hope he wins so that Obama can easily defeat him in the general election. In all of my years of voting I have never voted for a Democrat until George "W" ran the second time.— Ichabod Mudd
- I didn't know that Peter Griffin from Family Guy was a writer for the Inquirer...— Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadoo
- Comment removed.
- The GOP is all but dead....they may want to rethink their philosophies as it is becoming more clear that this country is more than just a bunch of dead brained rednecek white trash.— Ronba
- You, the media kicked Santorum to the curb for Casey a real Obamaphile, and look what we got, higher healthcare costs, inflation which the media constantly downplays,out of sight energy prices, no pipeline, hidden unemployment, a soon to be Nuclear Iran etc. Are we really better off than we were four years ago?
Just another member of Obamas herd.— rfitz - When everything is boiled down and Rick Santorum and Barack Obama remain, will the vote to be cast November 6th require any serious contemplation in picking Santorum over extending the current debacle for a second term? Who are we to spend more than we should and give the bill to our young to pay? We need to strengthen families that will promote responsibility and achievement while at the same time reduces government dependency and debt. Who do you want to tuck you in at night, Uncle Sam or a relative capable of love? Rick Santorum will make America work for what matters now, and long into the future.— Same ole same ole
- I have voted for every Republican presidential nominee in the general since I could first vote before the 2000 election but will vote THIRD PARTY if Santorum is the GOP nominee.— AbeVigoda
- NO!— jimmymack
- Here is some background information about the beliefs of Rick Santorum’s ultra-wealthy backers and how much they have donated to his campaign:
http://viableopposition.blogspot.com/2012/03/rick-santorums-near-billionaire-backers.html
Is this the kind of America that we want?— NormaWard
You can reach Tom Fitzgerald at 215-854-2718 or tfitzgerald@phillynews.com.
Reach Thomas at tfitzgerald@phillynews.com.
