I see that President Obama is talking about jobs...a little late. Showing that his knowledge of the issue may come from Billy Joel albums the president bought when he was back at Columbia, Obama is off to Allentown (why not also Bethlehem, where they're "filling out forms, standing in line..?") Nancy Pelosi is also focused on jobs, suddenly. Why this hasn't been the No. 1 priority since 1/20/09 is mindboggling.
Don't they listen to arguably the world's best economist, Dr. Doom, a.k.a., Nouriel Roubini?
Also, remember: The last recession ended in November 2001, but job losses continued for more than a year and half until June of 2003; ditto for the 1990-91 recession.
So we can expect that job losses will continue until the end of 2010 at the earliest. In other words, if you are unemployed and looking for work and just waiting for the economy to turn the corner, you had better hunker down. All the economic numbers suggest this will take a while. The jobs just are not coming back.
The irony in all of this is that "the recession" is over. That's because the definition of a recession is what happens with the gross domestic product, and the economy -- by that measure -- started growing again this summer, not just in any way that would motivate any companies to hire back any of the millions of folks who were laid off, not when they can pockets these few extra dollars and keep "doing more with less." And some of the improvement in the economy is indeed helpful; the rebound on Wall Street -- though still waaaay below the 2007 highs -- doesn't just help your sleazeball Goldman Sachs types but also your middle-class folks, who are feeling a tad better about their 401(k) than six months ago. But all in all, any excitement about these upticks is a joke, since what really matters to people is having a job and earning a decent wage.
Maybe we need a new word, because if "recession" doesn't apply to the late 2009 economy, there needs to be an equally scary word that does.
And don't expect any solutions from Washington. Roubini knows what to do, but his answer shows why he's a great economist -- and not an American politician:
Comment removed.
Don't forget the old double dip recession. Anyway, what's the matter, Will, recession not PC enough for ya?— SteveMG- ---}}} Subtract the government involvement, and the GDP growth was anemic. {{{--- Good point, bryanc. Because when a parent can feed their children as a result of economic activity due to government involvement, it doesn't really count.— Talking point sleuth
"And don't expect any solutions from Washington." I'm thankful for every day when there isn't a solution from Washington. By the way, Roubini is an idiot.— jmc- Once again Will, you demonstrate why newspapers are going out of business. You show zero financial knowledge in your commentary on why businesses aren't re-hiring yet. There is only one reason to be in business -- TO MAKE MONEY. If you aren't in business to make a profit, then you should run a charity instead, because you will be out of business QUICK. Businesses cut these millions of jobs in order to SURVIVE in a competitive marketplace. Just because their bottom lines now show a little black ink doesn't mean that they are just going to rehire the nattering nabobs they laid off. Many businesses chose to streamline their operations, either top-lining their employees (which means dumping the bottom rated ones), or eliminating non-essential functions & spending, and outsourcing inefficient areas of their business (HR, Finance, IT). They made fundamental changes in their business model to adjust to the different marketplace. Jobs will come back in the long run as these businesses again have the capital to expand operations, and change their business model in a positive direction.— IggleFan68
- Read an interesting article the other day that compares malnutrition among Indian and Chinese children. While both countries have had significant GDP growth and significant increases in middle and upper class incomes - as the result of capitalistic policies - China has made significant inroads in improving the nutritional levels of children through state involvement in the economy while India, without that state involvement, has failed to make significant inroads. But you know, if all state involvement in the economy can produce is healthier children, or perhaps more jobs, even as the economy grows faster than economies without the same level of state involvement, what have you really accomplished?— Talking point sleuth
"Maybe we need a new word..." . . . . . . . So what's a good word for a nation in denial? Egypt?- Here's the thing, Iggy. For years we had increasing GDP, productivity, and corporate profits even as there was little growth in employment and no growth in real wages. So profits were happening even as the fundamentals were in place to create the kind of economic recession we've experienced. Now, again, we have a (moderately) growing GDP but a lack of corresponding growth in employment because corporations are milking profits out of greater productivity. At what point does the mantra that corporate profits, above all else, is the answer to all economic ills, become insufficient? Don't businesses and corporations have some responsibility to their community? Monolithic question for profits (as opposed to providing good jobs and good products at fair prices) is what got us into this mess.— Talking point sleuth
- Comment removed.
- Hey TPS, it sounds like you would really enjoy living in a communist nation like China, or at least a socialist one. You seem to think that they are just fantastic places to live. How about instead of trying to change the US into one, why don't you move there? Then, everyone wins. And let me answer your loaded question to Iggy. Corporations will suffer when they make too much profit at the expense of employees because the consumers will be unemployed or underpaid and they won't purchase those products anymore, eliminating the revenues that they use to make profits. The system balances itself out. It only does not balance itself when external forces (i.e. government) interferes.— pete317
- TPS - So China does it we all should follow in line? Last time I checked China's human rights record is pitiful - but you found an article about the government feeding children and we are to just follow hook, line, and sinker (because this article was in line with what you wanted to say). Here is a question - how come parents can not be responible for thier childs growth and nutrition? And your first point has no ground to stand on is is an assumption made by you.— reddog44
- ---}}} You seem to think that they are just fantastic places to live. {{{--- Where did you get that, Pete? Although in some ways it might be fun to live in China (interesting culture, great food), I have no desire to live in a country where freedom of speech is not assured. Interesting that you feel a need to resort to red-baiting as opposed to responding to the point. In China, in a capitalistic economy, they've had solid economic growth even as they've had a dramatic reduction in malnutrition among children. In India, they've had solid economic growth in a capitalistic economy but very little growth in combating childhood malnutrition. The difference? Government involvement in the economy. I'm not debating whether it is better to live in the U.S. or China - I am ridiculing the ideas that (1) you can't have economic growth along with state involvement in the economy and, (2) the notion that government involvement in the economy can't have positive effects. You can dismiss improvements in childhood nutrition all you want, Pete - but that says more about you than it does about me.— Talking point sleuth
- ---}}} Corporations will suffer when they make too much profit at the expense of employees because the consumers will be unemployed or underpaid and they won't purchase those products anymore, eliminating the revenues that they use to make profits. {{{--- Nice theory. Here's the problem, however, it is disproven by recent history. We had solid GDP growth for years, even as real wages were stagnant and unemployment grew weakly. The reason was that the profits were based on increased productivity. More profits without increased employment or wages.— Talking point sleuth
- TPS, I did respond to your point. I responded to your point about corporate profits. Of course, you didn't respond to my point there, you rather went after my first tongue in cheek comment where I suggested you live in that wonderful country China because you make it sound like such a wonderful place in your previous posts. I made that comment because then we would have less one idiot liberal slogan chanting lemming here (yes, that was a direct insult thrown in there as a response to your hidden insult where you insinuate I am such a bad person because I obviously don't care about child nutrition).— pete317
- Yipee, the recession is over. Bunch has said it is so. Let's see what you say next year when you are in the unemployment line. Here's a synonym for recession...socialism. Found it in the Webster's Thesaurus listed under lieralism.— junethe4th
Will Bunch, a senior writer at the Philadelphia Daily News, blogs about his obsessions, including national and local politics and world affairs, the media, pop music, the Philadelphia Phillies, soccer and other sports, not necessarily in that order.
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