Two slices of toast
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Two slices of toast
Pass the butter, please.
Arlen Specter just popped. You never know in politics, but based on my experience in watching polling trends, only a mid-May blizzard or some other freak phenominon of nature can at this point prevent the five-term senator from losing the Democratic primary to Rep. Joe Sestak of Delaware County, one week from tomorrow. Over the next week, you will see some remarkably nasty attack ads from Team Specter and intensive campaigng from his erstwhile East Falls neighbor Ed Rendell and maybe even from Barack Obama, although if anyone on the Democratic side has any common sense (heh) they will allow the president to save face by announcing that he's busy dealing with some crisis in D.C., since there are so many to choose from. None of this will work. Specter has already thrown the dirty-ad kitchen sink at Sestak.
It just hasn't worked.
What amazes me is that the pundits didn't see this coming a year ago. Everyone is acting all stunned by the Sestak ad showing Specter's endorsement from a Will Ferrell-esque George W. Bush and his political flirtations with Sarah Palin, when it was obvious a year ago that such an ad was coming and that it would destroy Specter and that he would melt faster than the Wicked Witch of the West the second that it hit the airwaves. Do the talking heads even know who votes in an off-year Democratic primary? If not, hop into my Prius and I'll drive you down to the Whole Foods and show you -- they are NOT voting for an ex-Bush "ally"...ever.
Also, there was so much talk of what a political genius that Specter is, when it turns out that his only genius is in using the power of incumbency to raise millions of dollars. In fact, his handling of the party switch -- when he looked into the camera and said the main reason he was switching parties was to get himself re-elected -- was actually the biggest political botch I have ever seen in my life. I'm sure he thought that didn't matter, because Rendell and Obama and the supposed Democratic machine would save him in the end. Except that those two guys and and the creaky "machine" couldn't elect a dogcatcher in Pennsylvania right now (I think Obama's fortunes here will improve greatly in 2012 as long as the economy improves as well -- but that's two long years away).
Which is why Specter is toast. Hey, it's been a heck of ride, Arlen, for about 50 years. Now Pennsylvania's senior senator will be able to enjoy something that I -- and quite possibly you -- will never experience.
Retirement.
Comments (50)
Will, assuming what you are forecasting holds true and Specter loses, what do you think the chances are he will pull a Lieberman/Crist and run as an independent? Haven't heard any talk of this but I wonder if he's thinking about it. What I will love if Sestak wins will be the big middle finger state voters will be giving the state's Democratic Party machine...
I'm sure he's thought of it -- the guy will do anything to get re-elected! However, the law in PA is very different from CT -- I'm pretty sure that if you lose a primary here you can't turn around and run as an independent. The only way would be write-in, as Bennett in Utah is considering. Good luck with that.— will- Say, RG - your Utopia finally exists: --snip-- The official platform for the Republican Party of Maine is now a mix of right-wing fringe policies, libertarian buzzwords and outright conspiracy theories. The document calls for the elimination of the Department of Education and the Federal Reserve, demands an investigation of “collusion between government and industry in the global warming myth,” suggests the adoption of “Austrian Economics,” declares that “‘Freedom of Religion’ does not mean ‘freedom from religion’” (which I guess makes atheism illegal), insists that “healthcare is not a right,” calls for the abrogation of the “UN Treaty on Rights of the Child” and the “Law Of The Sea Treaty” and declares that we must resist “efforts to create a one world government.” --snip--— Talking point sleuth
- PA does have a "sore-loser" law that would prevent Specter from running as an independent if he loses. However, he could have a write-in campaign. BTW, Rasmussen released a poll today that has Sestak ahead 47-42 in the primary.— buttermilk67
Sloth, assuming what you posted is accurate, a big assumption, I see that as a real positive platform. The UN is the most corrupt organization on the face of the earth and only slightly less anti-semetic than Hamas. AGW is the biggest hoax ever perpetrated by the intellegensia (and follow the money to ALGORE's house). Bad science based strictly on computer models that that make wild and unreliable assumptions. The real test of this is that the data is not reproduceable (a basic tenet in research). There is no such thing as settled sciece. Examples:1930's-don't touch the heart in surgery, 1940's lobotomies will cure mental illnesses, 1950's tonsilectomies for all children. More research and better techniques and information sources change "settled science". AGW is a religion of lefties who want to bring some significance to their meaningless lives. Ludwig von Mises was right. One world government is silly idea idea that would never be possible. Kind of like you having a rational thought.— georgel- TPS, that i right wing troll utopia. Methinks RG and Mr. Smith are packing their bags for Maine now.
- Add George I to that list packing their bags for right wing utopia. During the Great Depression families migrated to California, during the sixties hippies migrated to California, and now it looks like the teebaggging crowd are migrating to Maine.
- I'm picturing long lines of Humvees along northbound I-95 with "Palin 2012" bumper stickers, all filled with bovine white men.
Comment removed.- That's good, lefties (I'm looking at you, BHL)... keep mocking, deriding, and above all stereotyping those you disagree with.
- A lot of what is being said on here borders on stereotyping. I lean Repub, and would identify myself with the Tea Party, as one in five people in this country do. People like Bill Hicks can say it's all "bovine white men," but the Tea Party stretches across all people. I can even blast timetostopthis for calling Obama supporters "bovine white guilt men and women and black supremicists." ALL of you are wrong. Why not stick to the facts of this blog and not resort to name calling and stereotyping?— buttermilk67
- Specter wins and will order toast and coffee for breakfast. What will Sestak do?— OldSchoolG
- Our current laws regarding candidacy for office are offensive. Rather than giving creedance to individuals, these hacks all run on party tickets, using their party coattails to stay in office. If Specter's name appeared on a ballot, without a party designation, he would have been toast years ago.— Mark Glaeser
- If you are correct, Will, I may have to change my screen name to "Happy". Shame on Specter for pushing his agenda on Sports talk morning shows ("J-Roll endorsed me"). Desperation.— AngryWhiteMale
Will is right, Specter is toast. Its about time we had a real Democrate representing Pennsylvania. Remember when he was a Republican, he would always make noises like he was going to do the right thing on big issues in America but always ended up toeing the Cheney/Bush line. Never once voted his principles (if he actually has any) as a Regressive. November 2010? Bring. It. On!— Les Ismore- make that towing the Cheney/Bush line...too early to spell!— Les Ismore
- haha, after I vote for Sestak on Tuesday, I will change my registration back to R, and vote for Pat in November lol.— texas.troubadour
- One thing I think I agree with the far right on is my distaste for Specter. Only way I could bring myself to vote for him would be if it was a choice between him and Toomey, who is even worse. Though then again, I will say this for Toomey, unlike Specter, I think he actually has courage of his convictions, even if I don't necc. agree with what he stands for.
- "during the sixties hippies migrated to California," How's that collectivist spirit turning out?— RG
- Actually, les, the expression is toe the line, not tow the line. (We wouldn't want bryanc/Bucky to get upset now, would we?)— Talking point sleuth
- This looks suspiciously like what would be called a "purity test" if it were republicans. Will, I think this warrants an obsessive investigation from the editorial Board and PNI opinion writers. I want to see Shestak pander to his base and tell us why he and not Specter will be better ablse to "bring home the bacon" to PA's downtrodden masses.— tr88
- "Actually, les, the expression is toe the line, not tow the line. (We wouldn't want bryanc/Bucky to get upset now, would we?)" So says the guy who was "upset" enough to actually make the correction. Too funny!— legatus
- TPS projects alot. He spends more time reading about libertarianism than i do, and corrects others grammar more than GT.— RG
- The problem with suggesting it was a dumb move by Specter is that it assumes he would have won if he stayed in the Republican party. That's a big assumption because he would have faced the same issue in that race. Namely, the hard core voters of the party. If he was running as an R right now, you could have the same split screen of him and Izell Jenkins.— etotheb
- Why can't these guys just learn how to retire with dignity?— Karin
- With BO's, ahem, "support" in VA, NJ and MA, Will's correct that it'd be best for him and Specter if BO stayed home.— pj katauskas
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- Mr Smith!! Fantastic Iggles reference!! As usual, your conclusions are incorrect, Will, though the result will be the same. Arlen was dead the minute he approved the stimulus package, because he finally alienated his CONSERVATIVE base enough to where they abandoned him. He's never had a liberal base to draw from. Switching parties was the act of a desperate man, and I called it a year ago, it will be good riddance come 2011. I actually liked and respected Arlen for being someone who voted his conscience and read/enjoyed "A passion for truth". The only truth I see here is someone desperate to hang on to Senate seat/lifestyle/semblance of relevance. Like Steve Carlton, he is hanging on too long and damaging any legacy that he may have had.— IggleFan68
- Smith, my guess is a secret handshake deal between BO and Sestak to put it away, as it can't really help either BO or Sestak, both look bad, BO that he made the bribe attempt and Sestak that BO thought he'd be receptive to it. Odd that Specter isn't making more of it now.— pj katauskas
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- "Pro Publica records that of $536.3 billion (pf the $700B) that the Treasury has dispersed to date, $216.8 billion has already been returned, either through banks paying the money back, or through dividends generated. That still leaves $319.5 billion outstanding, but most estimates are that as the health of the financial sector continues to improve, much of that figure too will return to the government's coffers. Indeed, last month, the Treasury Department offered an estimate of its own. The TARP program will end costing about $117 billion" Thank you President Obama for staying the course and refusing to yield to Regressive and TeaBaKKKer pressure.— Les Ismore
- Gee, Les, does that include the money we continue to shovel into the two black holes known as Fannie and Freddie? Both saddled up for more cash within the last week. Meanwhile, the Wall St banks took the cash and granted themselves bonuses.— RG
- "The TARP program will end costing about $117 billion, Tim Geithner forecast. Help for Fannie and Freddie will likely add about $85 billion more. But those losses will be partially offset by expected gains of $115 billion from the Fed's programs. That comes out to a final cost to taxpayers of $87 billion." I think that is hope and change that even RG can believe in!— Les Ismore
- Only a foll would beleive those numbers. But then again, Les is the person who blamed Bush's policies for wrecking the economy, and is now praising TARP, which was signed by Bush, for saving it. You can't fix stupid.— RG
- "Only a foll would beleive those numbers." You are right again RG, we should be listening to you of course, the foll(sic) who thinks that if something doesnt work in Japan, it wont work anywhere. Another one to chalk up on your "amazing" track record! hahaha! http://bailout.propublica.org/main/summary— Les Ismore
- "that if something doesnt work in Japan, it wont work anywhere." Does economic theory work differenty in Japan? And ae you ignoring the fact that Bush passed TARP, which you are claiming is a success, despite previous assertations that Bush wrecked the economy? Which is Les, sit down and think real hard.— RG
- Yes, Bush drove our economy into a ditch. And indeed he did sign TARP, and I give him credit for that, so just what is your point again? Oh, and about Japan, those of us who read know that our positions in coming out of the greatest recession in the last 100 years were vastly different than Japans yet time and time again, you cited Japan as the reason that ARRA wouldnt work. I'm not going to do your homework for you but you could start with Nobel Laureate in Economics, Paul Krugman.— Les Ismore
- "And indeed he did sign TARP, and I give him credit for that," No you didn't, you gave Obama the credit. Reread your own posts, or does your mental diarrhea lead you to forget what you just posted? "but you could start with Nobel Laureate in Economics, Paul Krugman." I've read Krugman, he's become a olitcal hack. He chastized Bush for deficits that were a third of Obama's.— RG
- Hi. I think that U.S. Senator Arlen Specter is a better choice for Pennsylvania in 2010 than Joe Sestak!— Atif Eric Gulab
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- "I've read Krugman, he's become a olitcal hack." and a Nobel Laureate to boot! That is some hackery there RG. Maybe you should read him more often. His insights on Japan are based on fact, not right wing hackery.— Les Ismore
- "does your mental diarrhea lead you to forget what you just posted?" Stay classy RG...hahahaha— Les Ismore
- RG - try actually reading the posts instead of just jumping to your inaccurate conclusions. "Thank you President Obama for staying the course and refusing to yield to Regressive and TeaBaKKKer pressure." Now maybe in RG world it says Obama signe TARP but in the reality based world, it says something completely different.— Les Ismore
- "Now maybe in RG world it says Obama signe TARP but in the reality based world, it says something completely different." You posted a quote on TARP, then thanked Obama, which makes no sense in any world.— RG
- "His insights on Japan are based on fact," They are based on opinion, not fact. Its interesting you can't tell the difference between the two.— RG
- ""His insights on Japan are based on fact," They are based on opinion, not fact." Wait....you are telling me that the Nobel Laureate doesnt base his insights on facts? Your ignorance is telling. Why dont you just say that you are just clueless instead of making everyone wait for your increasingly desparate posts?— Les Ismore
- "Wait....you are telling me that the Nobel Laureate doesnt base his insights on facts?" What factS? That Japan has the highest debt to GDP ratio amongst developed countries, that they've experienced two lost decades, that they still struggle with high ue and low growth? Yet Krugman blames the stimulus failure on their attmepts to balance a budget 6 years into their recession?— RG
- "Why dont you just say that you are just clueless" Coming from the person who said Bush's deficits killed the economy, but Obama's will save it. Or who said Bush's policies killed the economy, while praising TARP, a Bush policy. Les, don't blame me that you're wading in the shallow end of the gene pool.— RG
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