Before you go crazy about Hillary Clinton's big momentum on display here in Pa, just a few things to consider:
1) The race for the Democratic nomination is a 50-state competition, and going into it, you would have handicapped Pa. as one of the worst of those 50 for Barack Obama, maybe the worst. His weakest voting blocs have included the elderly and union households. Pennsylvania is the third-oldest state in the nation, the most heavily unionized, and one of the most economically distressed.
Given the demographics, which is a bigger surprise? That Obama once trailed here by 20 points, or that in the end he lost by only 10 points. Bill Clinton didn't need to win Utah to become president, John Street didn't need to win Port Richmond to become mayor of Philadelphia. Any Obama strategy for the nomination would aim to get the most delegates and votes nationwide -- knowing that you would surely lose Pennsylvania.
Which he did. As expected. And, yes, he still leads in delegates and votes -- all because HE won the states he was expected to win, and needed to win.
2) Obama came to Pennsylvania after a weak showing in a state with similar demographics, Ohio. And after his loss in the Buckeye State, Obama really was hit with the kitchen sink, most of it not new activity but dirt-digging by political opponents in both parties into his past associations, including former pastor Jeremiah Wright. In spite of that, exit polling suggests that Obama actually dramatically improved his standing with the voters that cost him Ohio, most notably voters over age 60 and white males in general. But as noted in 1), Pa. has A LOT of voters over 60, more than Ohio.
3) Clinton's main argument as pertains to Pennsylvania is that it's a November battleground state, and that she'd be a better fall candidate here than Obama. Perhaps -- she'd almost certainly run a little stronger in the Pittsburgh area. But most experts think the state will be won or lost in the Philadelphia suburbs, where McCain is also more popular than the typical Republican. And Obama won those Philadelphia suburbs with more than 60 percent of the vote (at least according to the exit poll). UPDATE: That previous sentence proves not to be correct -- I'd strikethrough if I knew how to do that with the new blogging software. Anyway, it looks like Clinton won a narrow victory in the four suburban counties, fueled by a big margin in Bucks. Not all suburban counties are created equal -- Bucks is mostly blue-collar Clinton countrt from Levittown on south, while Chester County, which Obama won, is affluent and exurban
I think too often we get caught up the day-to-day, whether it's a heated debate or a new gaffe or a bowling score of 37. Truth is, the story line in Pennsylvania was cast long before 4/22/08.
Posted by Will Bunch @ 1:08 AM
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50 comments
If 110,000 voters switched to Barack Obama from Hillary Clinton within one month's time - I would say the momentum is still in Barack Obama's favor.
Why is it that when Bill Clinton makes similar observations about his wife's chances in South Carolina, it is called playing the race card, but when Obama's losses are discussed, it is just a normal demographics discussion?
Maybe if he spent more money he would have gotten those votes.
dmoran, because you can't just state the obvious and let the media let it be that. Obama is leading because his home state voted for him and african americans in the south voted for him.
Hil won traditional democratic states and obama won over liberals in states that aren't.
dmoran, because you can't just state the obvious and let the media let it be that. Obama is leading because his home state voted for him and african americans in the south voted for him. Hil won traditional democratic states and obama won over liberals in states that aren't.
100k voters john? that is less than 5% not 10% and the polls with a 20% lead aren't accurate. if voters in philly opened their eyes and voted, obama would have lost by alot more.
Certainly Barack had more money, but Clinton had a 15 year foundation & every big politico in the State (except for Casey, Fattah & Murphy). She definitely hit the number she needed to hit (10 points), but its a far cry from where she was 2 months ago. She's doing better than "trading baskets", but it won't be enough.
It is difficult to see who is the bigger loser -- you or Obama. You are both in shock and denial. At least he's running for office. You are supposed to be a journalist, instead of a fawning cheerleader.
Apparently Hillary won the working class vote and Obama the upper class vote, in PA, I don't get it, it should be the converse, Obama will do much more for the working class as Hillary will protect the upper class...why do we Americans vote against our own interests???
dmoran, that's a great analogy. And it's true!
Obama was given a lesson by working class Americans. You cannot buy an election. Obama is just not in touch with the majority of the middle class. God, country and apple pie trump latte's every time. The kids I excuse, they are young and idealistic. Hillary has the experience and grit this country needs to overcome our failing economy, increase liveable-wage jobs, end the war in Iraq, provide universal health-care and make college more affordable. She is a fighter and we need a fighter!
It's fortunate that Obama's many negatives did not come out before the PA primary. If they had, it's quite probable that he would not have the lead in delagates he currently enjoys and quite possible that he would not be in the lead at all. That's why the Super Delagates can be so important, and why they should be open to voting the way they feel they should and not follow the general voting trends. Jefferson was right, the general population does not have the smarts to vote for right candidate, and a more knowledgeable group is needed to control the masses. Also in play will be the disenfranchisement of both Michigan and Florida. The Democratic party basically told both states to jump off a cliff, they weren't relavant. How's that going to play in the general election?
"She is a fighter and we need a fighter!"................. Right. If only she had fought the corporate interests to make universal health care a reality when she had the chance, and had fought Bush's plans to invade Iraq when she had the chance, maybe she wouldn't have to be fighting so hard now to just get traction in a battle she effectively lost two months ago when the fight was still meaningful.
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So exit polls show him taking both Bucks and Mont by 60/40 margins... but he loses by that much? As a bucks county resident I would like to know who manufactured my electronic voting machine THAT GIVES NO PAPER TRAIL and who they donate to.
So exit polls show him taking both Bucks and Mont by 60/40 margins... but he loses by that much? As a bucks county resident I would like to know who manufactured my electronic voting machine THAT GIVES NO PAPER TRAIL and who they donate to.
dmoran, if Michelle Obama tried to marginalize the white working class vote in PA the way Bill tried to marginalize the black vote in SC, we'd never hear the end of it, would we?
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And the battle goes on, and on. The party is bleeding all over the country, and Republicans are licking their paws. Two party's now exist within a party, and the coliseum's lions are waiting to strike the final blow. Nothing can stop McCain now. Thanks Eddie and Michael.
Will;
Obama didn't do as well in the burbs as expected to though. He lost narrowly in Montgomery and got trounced in Bucks. He won in Delaware and Chester, and also in Lancaster if you want to consider that a burb. Considering the time and money spent in areas that should have gone more his way, there is reason enough as an Obama supporter to give pause.
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"And after his loss in the Buckeye State, Obama really was hit with the kitchen sink,"
Don't forget that self-inflicted bullet wound in his foot. Along with his comment that all three candidates would be an improvement over Bush (which Hillary jumped all over).
Obama has shown the ability to give his opponents hammer after hammer to hit him with. That's politics 101 - if your opponent gives you the opportunity, you exploit it to the gills - such as Kerry saying he voted against something after he voted for it.
Whining about such shows your candidate is not ready for prime time. Better to realize Obama needs to learn to put a bit more of a filter between his brain and his mouth if he is going to have any chance of winning the big enchilada.
"Why is it that when Bill Clinton makes similar observations about his wife's chances in South Carolina, it is called playing the race card, but when Obama's losses are discussed, it is just a normal demographics discussion?"
Maybe because Bill compared Obama to Jesse Jackson, painting him as the "black" candidate?
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"So exit polls show him taking both Bucks and Mont by 60/40 margins... but he loses by that much? As a bucks county resident I would like to know who manufactured my electronic voting machine THAT GIVES NO PAPER TRAIL and who they donate to."
This is interesting, where did you hear this?
Everyone be nice to Will today, he is in mourning. He and the other Obama spinners are all sitting around today writing pieces about how PA voters are racist dopes for not voting for Obama. Maybe the populace is just smarter than you give them credit for. But I did enjoy watching all the talking heads on MSNBC and CNN, who cheerlead for their Messsiah, have to go into spin mode and come up with reasons why he lost. Must see TV indeed.
That sounds more like a pep talk aimed at the Obama campaigh workers. How can a 10 point loss, after spending twice what Hillary spent, be considered anything but a huge loss.
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This is such great theatre I almost hate to see it end.Maybe after the primaries we can have a steel cage match- "The Magic Mulatto v. Hill the Shrill ".Winner gets a chance to be mauled by McCain.Mauled.
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Because McCain is strong on the issues. gas tax holidays, continued tax cuts and a 100 year war, plus bomb-bomb-iran. he's bush-lite.
Barak's camp doesn't lose gracefully. This "article" is just a bunch of diversional spin so characteristic of Obama's tactics. If he had won, this blogger would be saying how strong Obama was and demanding Hillary step down. Instead, he's saying "Oh, we knew all along that Obama wouldn't take PA." But the reality is Obama could have taken PA. He spent more money, ran more ads, he even enlisted the ever popular John Stewart. The polls were showing a razor thin margin, but he still couldn't pull it off. Hillary pulling through under those circumstances IS significant, especially at 10%. Just once I'd like to hear an Obama supporter say, "Hey, she got us this time," without a whole laundry list of eloquently worded excuses.
How can a 10 point loss, after spending twice what Hillary spent, be considered anything but a huge loss.........See - this is why I love Attytood...so many examples of people who have no concept of logic whatsoever . Obama outraises Clinton by a huge margin - in fact, practically outraises Clinton and McCain combined - and the Republican sycophants line up to claim somehow that having tens of millions more than either other candidate is a disadvantage. Obama has tens of millions more to spend because he inspires so many more people to contribute. By my logic - that's an effin' advantage . But what do I know? The Republicans, who know so much more about economics (why just take a look at our economy under the dope they elected), have some theory that having more money to spend in a campaign hurts Obama's chances.
How can a 10 point loss, after spending twice what Hillary spent, be considered anything but a huge loss.........See - this is why I love Attytood...so many examples of people who have no concept of logic whatsoever . Obama outraises Clinton by a huge margin - in fact, practically outraises Clinton and McCain combined - and the Republican sycophants line up to claim somehow that having tens of millions more than either other candidate is a disadvantage. Obama has tens of millions more to spend because he inspires so many more people to contribute. By my logic - that's an effin' advantage . But what do I know? The Republicans, who know so much more about economics (why just take a look at our economy under the dope they elected), have some theory that having more money to spend in a campaign hurts Obama's chances.
"and the Republican sycophants line up to claim somehow that having tens of millions more than either other candidate is a disadvantage."..."By my logic - that's an effin' advantage . But what do I know?"......Not much, and you still cant read, lord help the students you teach. Please show where a 'sycophant" said "having" more to spend is a disadvantage. Dope.
What I've been saying about Clinton for months still holds true: Wherever she goes, her numbers go down. The longer she stays there, the more they go down. Some columnist had the idea that she should stop campaigning to hold onto what numbers she has. Any convention bump she could get would be wasted within two weeks. And Clinton is not the candidate that the Republicans fear and as a lifelong Republican I know what they're talking about.
I'm an Obama supporter, but that was a good win for Hillary.
It wasn't enough to affect the race in a big way, but it was nice to have a Pennsylvania Primary that mattered - and the money and attention that boosts Philly and brings attention to the rest of the state.
I think most Obama supporters are more relieved today than "in mourning". Hillary got less than a double-digit victory (9.4 to be precise), and Obama actually improved among some demographic groups that have been Hillary's staple. The TV media will naturally spin it for Hillary because they need the drama to keep their ratings up for the the next cycle - Indiana and North Carolina. Latest polls in Indiana may be discouraging for Obama but still not at the blow-out level for Hillary to have a chance to overtake Obama's overall delegate and vote leads, and now the race in Indiana and NC begins in earnest. There are a couple of major things to watch right now - how superdelegates respond (Obama already got Oklahoma's governor's endorsement today) and whether Hillary's victory translates into significant contributions to her meager war chest.
Thank God its over! I don't know if I could have handled the next step in the Hillary PA photo-op review --- carrying a rifle & a Bible while smoking an unfiltered Camel.
RG, as for "bomb-bomb-iran", Hitlery's the one who said she will "obliterate" Iran yesterday... what about that? I guess it's OK in your mind as long as its a DemocRAT. Because you know the DemocRAT is just saying it for political points, he/she isn't really serious about defending America.
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Montani-Easy,sounds like you're on the verge of overheating.Deep down you know your boy gets smoked in November.Smoked.
No, MNH, Hillary saying it was just as ridiculous. I guess people buy that faux tough stance though. They need to be protected from countries that have no air forces, navies, etc and are half a globe away. instead we should be asking what homeland security has accomplished. have airport screening processes been improved? are our borders safe? where are the air marshals, etc? nope, we'll rattle sabers at iran, and the masses will buy into it.
If Hillary gets the nomination, I can't wait for the slew of negative attack ads that the Republicans have been preparing since 2004. Her involvement with a communist law firm, defending Black Panthers, flip-flopping on issues, Monica, Whitewater, etc. etc. wil be played ad nauseam. If you think Obama has negatives going into the election that will be played by the Repubs, wait till get Hillary gets the nomination. They've been salivating at this thought for years, they've been gearing up for it for a long time now.
I realize the pundits are all prognosticating that Hillary will do better in November now, but she will get TROUNCED. The only good thing about it will be that the Clintonistas will be defused as a force within the party
If Hillary gets the nomination, I can't wait for the slew of negative attack ads that the Republicans have been preparing since 2004. Her involvement with a communist law firm, defending Black Panthers, flip-flopping on issues, Monica, Whitewater, etc. etc. wil be played ad nauseam. If you think Obama has negatives going into the election that will be played by the Repubs, wait till get Hillary gets the nomination. They've been salivating at this thought for years, they've been gearing up for it for a long time now.
I realize the pundits are all prognosticating that Hillary will do better in November now, but she will get TROUNCED. The only good thing about it will be that the Clintonistas will be defused as a force within the party
"Barack's camp doesn't lose gracefully"
Unlike Hillary, who can't even acknowledge when Obama wins, instead giving campaign speeches at her next stop the night of a loss without even mentioning she lost. Got it.
"He lost narrowly in Montgomery and got trounced in Bucks.".....Montgomery I can understand, with rusty white towns like Conshohocken and Norristown. But what's up with Bucks County? My guess is that it saw a huge increase in local Republicans (who are in the majority but very moderate) switching to independent or Democratic to vote for Hillary.
The only good thing about it will be that the Clintonistas will be defused as a force within the party......Agreed. If Clinton wins we will be seeing Dems run as Republican-lite candidates for decades to come.
Yet another insight into the Big Picture:
One possible reason, overlooked thus far, is that Democrats also have values voters. Many white, working class Democrats are pro-life on the abortion issue and support traditional marriage. This constituency may not be vocal on these issues and may not give them top priority, but such voters exist. Moreover, while they may not expect Democratic presidential candidates to agree with them on these issues, they do expect those candidates to at least be sympathetic to these concerns. Hillary may be perceived that way by this bloc, whereas Obama is very clearly condescendingly opposed.
I am TIRED of hearing how he was a 20 point underdog! ALL these polls from 2007 were used as the starting point when NOONE knew who Obama was! So knock off the ridiculous poll comparing. He outspent her, had the media in his back wallet and was the "front runner". He lost! Just as he did in ALL big and diverse states...Florida, Ohio, Texas, Michigan, New Jersey, California, and so forth. And the BIG states are the states that show the TRUE make-up of the General Population. He LOSES! Accept it. Get behind Hillary. We MUST win in November and we cannot do it with Mr. Chants Unity but listens to Mr. Rants Divisity.
Core Democrat: Obama was a 20 point underdog as recently as 6 weeks ago, NOT 2007. Typical uninformed Clinton voter though, keep drinking the Clinton Kool-Aid. Pennsylvania was a state made to order for her core constituency, she had the state's political machine behind her, roots in Scranton, Obama dealing with more issues than he has had to at any other point in this campaign, and yet he steadily gained ground on her and whittled her lead to under 10 points. And some win in Michigan, considering he wasn't on the ballot and she agreed to the rules not to count or campaign in Michigan in October.
Clinton supporters will believe anything that comes out of the Queen's mouth, apparently.
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About Will Bunch
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Will Bunch, a senior writer at the Philadelphia Daily News, blogs about his obsessions, including national and local politics and world affairs, the media, pop music, the Philadelphia Phillies, soccer and other sports, not necessarily in that order.
Will Bunch, a senior writer at the Philadelphia Daily News, blogs about his obsessions, including national and local politics and world affairs, the media, pop music, the Philadelphia Phillies, soccer and other sports, not necessarily in that order.
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